Should We Be Wary of China in Space? (Update)

I think Americans over-estimate their technological lead.

The re-balancing of R&D to industrial problems will probably keep us ahead on the medicine and gadgets for at least a decade.

But the loss of fundamental R&D combined with some insight into emerging fields makes me wonder if we're not already behind on some of the world-changing technologies that are newly feasible, and may exist elsewhere behind closed doors.

China already has ICBMs armed with nuclear warheads refined with stolen technology from the US in the 1990s. What more is there? the details of the latch on the ISS? our plans for a centrifuge for the ISS which we never built? Information shared would only be for peaceful purposes with a nation that already has what it needs for making war.
This is a great opportunity for a win-win situation since it has been obvious since the early 1970s that the US is not seriously interested in investing the amount necessary to go it alone in space exploration. Let us face that fact squarely instead of pretending as we have for almost half a century that we will be serious on space, just not this year. Cooperating in space has advantages in both financial and international relationships.

China doesn't have any technological lead in space over the US or Russia. Maybe they could ten or 20 years from now. But they certainly don't have it now.

The Chines have only had three manned launches into space in the entire history of their space program. The US has had 5 manned space launches this year alone!

The Chinese ruling oligarchy (the Communist Party) is going to do what's in their own best interest.

Marcel F. Williams

I would say: Yes! But then I am wary of America in Space! Its bad enough having GCHQ eavesdropping on your every electronic thought...
As I have said before, China has opted for the robust Russian model rather than the continual cutting edge of America. One would expect that there have been some Chinese improvements to the Russian original and indeed there may be areas where their version is more advanced: q.v. their orbital module is capable of independent activity!
Whilst it is true that they have only had three crewed launches, look at what those launches have achieved: Yang Liwei's 21 hours vs John's 5ish hours and Yuri's original 1hr 48min; Shenzhou 6: (Gemini) 4 days, 19 hours, 33 min! Shenzhou 7: Spacewalk and, if rumours are to believed, a working toilet! Next: automated assembly of their space station. Moreover it's not like there was a race like there was back in the '60s! Whilst I am not party to the PRC's long term plans, it doesn't take a degree in rocket science to figure that their program will parallel that of the Russian InterCosmos model: using Space as an exercise in soft power! I wonder when they will invite someone from Taiwan? Once they are sure of their LSS and whatnot: an EOR mission to the Moon. Like W Von B planned before it got all confrontational!

"The Chinese ruling oligarchy (the Communist Party) is going to do what's in their own best interest." Marcel F. Williams
And the Democrats (or the Republicans) aren't?
Singing: "Its the same the whole world over,..."

Returning to the article: one can help but be suspicious whenever someone protests about 'stealing' technology. It is a two way street as everyone does it! America's latest trick: 'patenting' OUR genes! Kettle/Saucepan/etc.

I agree with earlier posters who think that some people are overrating the value of what they have to steal.

However, I'm against non-token cooperation with the Chinese in manned spaceflight. The US intended for the Space Station to bring the space programs of Japan, Europe and eventually Russia under the umbrella of NASA. The result was less competition, less innovation, greater risk aversion, more bureaucracy and more waiting for the slowest partner. As a planet we'd be further along had we done separate projects for the past 25 years.

The last thing we should do is drag China into the same quagmire. Let them do their own thing. Maybe their accomplishments in a few years will embarrass the rest of us into playing catch-up.

Besides all that, the idea that we should stifle others so we can stay ahead without actually moving forward bothers me.

The popular media worries so much about Iran catching up to the 1950s while openly suggesting that we should just stop developing because we have social problems.

Our supposed supremacy is China's to take.

The Chinese have already admitted why they are in space. First its to play catchup, second its for national prestige, and third its because they want to be around to take advantage of any big technological advancements.
It would only be considered theft if we spent any effort to guard our secrets.

Consider the Russian space program. For a pittance in membership fees they are in on every detail of shuttle and station operations. They get to read the blueprints of whatever launch system we develop.
Its a good deal presuming that if anyone else has a spaceflight breakthrough they would share it with us too... but somehow I doubt it would work that way.
The space fairing nations are only behaving nice now because flight time is incredibly expensive and there's not much money to be made.

I'd compare it to arctic research. Everyone is one big happy science driven family, content to shiver in the dark together until the day after someone finds oil... Then your surrounded by guns and warships, business as usual.

I predict China will get an invitation to join the ISS club before the end of Obama's term as President.

The US laws on technology transfer and export control would make any arrangement between NASA and the Chinese a nightmare. We had plenty of issues dealing with these laws on ISS, and there we were dealing with "friendlier" nations. Whether or not anyone believes there is technology to transfer is not the point, its all legislated and regulated by the government. Any contractors involved in such a venture would have to be extremely careful in their dealings with the Chinese, or risk going to jail.