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Google Lunar X Prize: The China Factor

By Keith Cowing
NASA Watch
August 29, 2013
Filed under

Summary of Rules and Requirements, Google Lunar X Prize
“The competition’s grand prize is worth $20 million. To provide an extra incentive for teams to work quickly, the grand prize value will change to $15 million whenever a government-funded mission successfully explores the lunar surface, currently projected to occur in 2013.”
China sets course for lunar landing this year, CNN
“China set a bold new course in its ambitious space program Wednesday, when it announced plans to land its first probe on the moon by the end of the year.”
Google Lunar X Prize: Changing Rules – and Fewer Entrants?, earlier post
Changes Coming to the Google Lunar X Prize, earlier post

NASA Watch founder, Explorers Club Fellow, ex-NASA, Away Teams, Journalist, Space & Astrobiology, Lapsed climber.

10 responses to “Google Lunar X Prize: The China Factor”

  1. Denniswingo says:
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    That is not what will happen. What will happen is that the value of the Google Lunar X prize will drop by 50% per the rules.

  2. Denniswingo says:
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    China gets nothing from the Google lunar X prize. The article is wrong.

  3. kcowing says:
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    Where do you get that idea? Google Lunar X Prize does not give China anything. Google Lunar X Prize drops their top prize if a government mission lands first and China looks like they will do this. You have to be an official entrant in the Google Lunar X Prize. China is not an entrant. Stop waving your arms.

  4. kcowing says:
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    Who ever said anything about Google Lunar X Prize giving China any money? Try reading a little more carefully.

  5. CadetOne says:
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    When China soft lands on the Moon and sends back high quality pictures from the surface, I think the general population (and Congress) will finally notice.

    That will be 2 things China can do that the US cannot right now: send humans into space and land payloads on the Moon.

    • Paul451 says:
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      Yes… but what do you think Congress will do with that revelation? Admit they have done something wrong and stupid and backwards… or double down?

      • CadetOne says:
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        Congress changes slowly. But after China is successful sending high definition photos from the surface of the Moon, when a politician uses the words about America having the “preeminent space program”, at a minimum the press should challenge them on it.

      • CadetOne says:
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        I’m hoping Congress starts to think along the lines of the COTS/CCDev/X-prize approach, with a combination of milestone awards and contracts for multiple parties targeted at the Moon (Mars is terrible for this because of the launch window problem)

        I think the Northrop Grumman Lunar Lander XCHALLENGE was a failure because there was no follow-on. I think Google Lunar X Prize is too hard for the first step with not enough money.

        Some examples for awards: (1) impact on the Moon (just hit it). (2) Lunar orbit with camera and communication gear to communicate with both Earth and future payloads on the Moon. (3) Lunar truck for soft landing, the purpose is to eventually deliver scientific/commercial payloads of different sizes (start small). (4) Then you start layering in the interesting things like Google’s Lunar X prize does (e.g., pictures of previous spacecraft on the Moon, moving a certain distance or lasting a Lunar night, take picture of 30x magnification (make up a number) of regolith, etc.)

        With reliable delivery of payloads to the Lunar surface, the US could establish something like the “American Solar Challenge”, but where the 1-3 winners each year get a free ride to the Lunar surface.

        By keeping the payloads small (at first), unmanned, and one-way, the costs will be considerably cheaper than what Griffin was trying to do, yet it will still generate excitement, build and maintain a technical/industrial base, and inspire high school and college students.

        Hopefully businesses will chip in as well, with advertising (like NASCAR rovers) and novel business ideas Planetary Resources’ Arkyd telescope.

        • Paul451 says:
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          I did wish someone had chipped in to make the original (Ansari) X-Prize an annual or biennial contest. (Ie, highest flight wins.)

          My logic was to contrast the first year of DARPA’s Grand Challenge autonomous car race with latter years. Basically everyone sucked in the first year (not one team succeeded.) In the second year, almost every team completed the challenge. By the third contest, DARPA had to dramatically ramp up the difficulty. Imagine if suborbital advanced at the same rate.

          Even now, I wish there was the political environment where Obama could issue a big prize-challenge and Congress would support it. For example, challenge aerospace companies to “before this decade is out, land a man on surface of the moon and return him safely to Earth” for a prize calculated to be 1% of the original cost of Gemini/Apollo (corrected for inflation, about $230b by 2019, so call it $2.3b prize.)

          [It’d be hard. “Worthy.” Falcon Heavy would only just be coming online. The manned CCDev systems would still be fresh. No one has a lander, although Masten is playing with a Centaur-based lander concept. The schedule is insanely tight.]

          Oh, 2019 is the 50th anniversary of Apollo 11, which is why I picked it.

  6. warrenplatts says:
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    I heard they’re going to change the rules so that the prize amount won’t be reduced if China lands first.