The Vision for Space Exploration at T+10
A Decade of the Vision for Space Exploration: An Alternative Retrospective, Paul Spudis
“Reflecting on the last decade of U.S. space accomplishment, it is apparent that the strategic direction of the Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) first outlined by President Bush on January 14, 2004 has dramatically transformed the civil space program of the United States. Instead of drifting aimlessly, as had been our wont, we are now poised to expand outward with activities undreamed of only a few years ago – ready to set sail into the Solar System with both humans and machines. It is important to revisit this decade of events to appreciate what (and who) is responsible for the developments that cemented this enviable level of space capability – the effort keeping us at the forefront of space development.”
Going Beyond The Status Quo In Space, Dennis WIngo, Paul Spudis, Gordon Woodcock, earlier post
“The next step in our space program is the development of a true space faring civilization using the Moon as a stepping stone. Elements of such a system include a lunar spaceport, settlement, and industrial infrastructure to support the further economic development of the Solar System. Pursuing this goal requires a different way of thinking about space infrastructure and operations. Reducing operating cost is paramount. We must accept high-payoff new technologies and manage their risks until they are mature. But the payoff is huge: a new economic frontier in space.”
Spudis should maybe try the same thought exercise if we just went with all EELV architecture, as proposed by industry in 2005.
http://www.nasa.gov/explora…
Note that almost all industry teams in CE&R final studies recommended against developing new launch vehicles and put money in in space hardware development, or maybe evolving EELVs to 40-60mt launch capability.
“EELVs to 40-60mt launch capability” sounds like a Falcon Heavy to me! The human-rated SLS is not needed to begin a lunar program. Its development is actually now a hindrance to developing a lunar exploration program due to delays, cost of development and cost to sustain its flight readiness.
The first World Corporation could be conceived and controlled by a Union of Nations with the primary purpose of mining and processing extraterrestrial resources for the welfare of all nations. The potential ROI, the economics of the coming extraterrestrial industry based nearly all on robotics is so far beyond that of the economics of the Earth, that, the investing countries and international corporations could take a sizable cut of the returns and still provide considerable resources to the 2nd and 3rd World nations that permits them to make an orderly development into the modern era. The surplus of materials will be so great that the transition to the new economics will have to be orchestrated in order to avoid putting many millions of people out of work or enriching countries that would strengthen the grip of corrupt leadership.
While I think some early private enterprise might achieve some profitability from asteroid or lunar prospecting, it will be a human tragedy if capitalism is permitted to exploit outer space. Capitalism may be permitted to continue evolving on Earth as a system involving humans but the coming extraterrestrial industry based on “robots” should not be permitted to become a means for competition and profit
Working backwards from this vision, one should recognize that it is not the purpose of an agency – designed to explore, discover and support the stewardship of our planet, to develop an industry. Returning to the Moon and surveying the near-Earth Asteroids needs to be a international effort. The pathfinder missions and technologies need to be cooperatives. While startups such as DSI or Planetary Resources might someday be very profitable, a dissolution of private industry in space is an eventuality due to the enormous potential wealth based on non-human labor.
Mars, asteroids, L2 satellite assembly and servicing, a deep space habitat, and lunar are the many legs, not one legged stools
http://hopsblog-hop.blogspo…
The plan to use the Sun-Earth L2 libration point as the primary hub for future human space activities has been around for four decades.
http://www.sciencedirect.co…
http://www.sciencedirect.co…
The L2 gateway can be used as a staging point for asteroids, Mars, L2 satellite servicing and assembly, and the lunar surface. The gateway features reusable vehicles. A deep space space habitat at L2 would demonstrate that the crew and hardware could function for the year long round trip to mars in the proper environment of microgravity and full Galactic Cosmic Ray radiation prior to it long journey.
One needs to look no further than the NASA Space Challenges to examine the necessary steps to explore. http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/503…
Economic Access to space requires an increased flight rate with the existing smaller fleet enabled by a LEO gas station, and provides a market to for the commercial LVs. A space highway only needs an upper stage filled on orbit. The LEO gas station needs high ISP fuel (LH2) with zero boiloff to minimize the upper stage transfer mass to further reduce launch costs to LEO. A hybrid chemical/EP architecture reduces the cost and/or trip times further. Components of the LEO depot are common with active radiation shielding, an L2 depot, and ISRU.
It takes time to turn a large ship. Perhaps it may still happen and provide quite the exciting future for the coming generations.
Do not forget that a Lunar Space Elevator can be constructed with existing materials. It is possible that such an Elevator to the EML-1 or EML-2 points could help make the first industry on the Lunar surface more economically achievable. And take note that the most prominent mining startups are looking to near-Earth asteroids. The early economics of exploiting NEAs is better than that of the Moon. Some of the biggest names linked to innovation and wealth from modern technology are supporting asteroid efforts not Lunar.
If “Lunar Exploitation” is left to the toiling of robotics, i.e. without any need for human habitation, then the Moon could serve to deliver rocket fuel (H2O, H2, O2) to EML1 or 2 via an Elevator. Using EML-1 and EML-2 as Waypoint Stations, space vehicles could be fueled and dispatched to capture/retrieve near-Earth asteroids and then fueled again to de-orbit raw or processed materials back to the Earth’s surface.
But there’s no reason to do so. It’s vastly more materially efficient (and cheaper) to develop shorter rotating tethers. And the technology can be scaled up. Space elevators are an all-or-nothing proposition.
Oh I agree that there are other types of tethers that could be used. Each with various pluses and minuses.
A lunar space elevator is IMPOSSIBLE. There is no such thing as a stable lunar-stationary orbit, as the moon rotates so slow that such an orbit would be deep enough into earths gravity well that would disrupt the orbit.
L1/L2 are the mid-points. The lunar elevator would need to be about 200,000km long. It’s possible, but a ridiculous waste of resources.
If you can build even a low capacity lunar elevator, then by definition you can build a hundred high capacity transfer-tethers throughout the solar system.
Come on guys. Give me a break here. It ain’t impossible and 200K km of yarn isn’t needed either… something less than 200K. One could use a siphon to run material up the elevator. Granted, its not practical for human transport. So rather, I’d suggest we turn to asteroids. And “ridiculous waste of resources” – let’s start with that Senate Launch System.
200,000km is the “natural” length. Where the two arms are balanced. A large counterweight would shorten the length of the outer arm. The (gravitational) midpoint is 56,000km for L1, 64,000km for L2, it seems unlikely that it’d be stable below 100,000km, even with a large counterweight. From memory, Liftport’s design actually runs tether well beyond the counterweight anyway.
[Still, Liftport &co aren’t spending my money. So good luck to them.]
A mass driver would work just fine and be a LOT less hassle and tech development.
Yes. Mass drivers could be more economical.
And a much better weapon to have around after my decendants get enough of Rocky J and your kind enslaving us while you live the fat life off the solar systems resources, you make us toil for!!!
Valkyrie
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/w…
Right Mr. Heinlein???
Rocky J
Imagine a movie that showed that vision of yours of robots inhabiting the solar system with only a few of their human masters and they have a successful rebellion against humans an go on to stars.
You know The Moon is a Harsh Mistress update where the hero’s are robots.
Be one hell of a good movie if done right.
Call it The Solar system is a Harsh Mistress.
Thanks. Over the holidays, my sister suggested the same, a movie script. Hey wouldn’t be hard to surpass the script of Gravity which is like a combination of Asteroids and Frogger.
Expected this century: 1)First discovery of life beyond the Earth, 2) Creation of the first sentient machines. I think the latter is more challenging to the Human race. Even without self-awareness, machines have displaced a lot of humans. And just one self-aware super-computer will effectively beat, i.e. make obsolete every Einstein and Ken Jennings. Never mind filling the solar system with self-aware machines. But Jeopardy didn’t go out of business. And there is no I-Robot Jeopardy program. Chess matches go on. Kurzwell thinks the Singularity will occur in the 2040s. It may take longer. The DARPA competition involved remote controlled robots. Robot intelligence is equivalent to a few thousand synapses. Humans have 100s of Billions. Right to Lifers draw the line at Humans. They do not despair over other animals in that way. Synthetic biology is likely to permit creating and withdrawing of new animals and plants. Whether any are called a new species will be a question to answer. With sentient machines, we are not obligated to multiply their numbers. There will be some problem when without reason such as with HAL-9000, we would wish to turn one off and it pleads for that not to happen. Such machines are not the problem right now. It is many autonomous machines that poses real problems now. There will be many more of those. The ratio of robots to humans will continue to rise. We need to find enough work though for people to do while the World population naturally shrinks in the next couple hundred years.
Why would robots of sufficient intelligence not be persons like us?
I am surrounded 8 persons right now, 5dogs 2cats and one human. I eat a person about once every two days, chicken is my meat of choice. Where the line between human/person and machine?
Rocky think of that movie where they show realistically life on the moon and Mars as well has the astriod and outer moon mining operations. And earth getting all it energy from solar/nuke farms in GEO.
Like 2001 I think we need a GOOD movie that shows a positive commercial/industrial future. Hummm maybe the struggle between capitalism and socialism caused robotic labor could be the theme.
Lol Spacex hurls another stone at the giant on Friday Mr. squared the future maybe here faster than you think.
Dreamer
D’oh! Of course, thanks for correcting me, Paul451. A soda elevator could indeed be placed through L1 or L2.
I agree with much of this. Except that Mars is not a “leg”, it is a “seat”, a destination only. It certainly becomes much easier to reach if we have other legs (like ISRU from asteroids/Moon/moons-of-Mars) but it doesn’t serve as a leg for any other destination.
If you had a large reusable methane falcon heavy on mars. Could you export methane to the moon to settle the moon. If martians are going to make methane anyway couldn’t they make lots of it for export. Cheaper than getting fuel from earth?? Not sure I buy getting hydrogen from the moon since ice is in such small quantities.
Perhaps you could, but why would you? Either you launch from Earth, or (for location/delta-v) use asteroid resources.
It’s hard to see how the extra payload from Mars’ low gravity could possibly make up for the enormous cost of developing the necessary launch and refurbishment infrastructure on Mars.
When tinker is talking about a recoverable 2stage from earth 1stage from mars MCT.
I started thinking why not recoverable two stage from mars and export fuel made on mars. Isn’t that cheaper than lifting fuel from earth or trying to make fuel
Maybe we should go to mars to get fuel to explore the moon?
How many tons of fuel could a falcon heavy R lift off mars compared to what it can lift off earth.
“The Vision for Space Exploration at T+10”
Spudis hit it right on the money-there is no vision at present. There is no plan, no hardware, no meaningful plan for hardware, no meaningful plan for a mission, no schedule. Why? No leadership. NASA is going no place fast, spending lots of money on the way.
http://www.reddit.com/r/spa…
How could the MCT Be used for future moon development???
Well, the SpaceX MCT is allegedly supposed to be a vehicle to support the colonisation of Mars. However, like any large LV, it should be possible to use it to loft large payloads to other destinations. It’s just a matter of funding the payloads (which is pretty much a long pole in its own right).
When the VSE was first introduced; it gave us a set of objectives, a time frame and hope. Sadly the administration failed to follow up and VSE was corrupted and ultimately failed. While I understand how some call for a UN type architecture to “oversee” human space exploration I feel that this would ultimately doom us to fail. For the UN is corruption at its finest/saddest. I have long called for a multi pronged attach with many destinations across the inner solar system. The Moon, Mars, Asteroids and even the beginning of development for flights to the gas giants. This isn’t about a single parameter as it were for the near term. It’s about spreading the “seeds” of Humanity across the galaxy and eventually we will meet up with our “brothers” around the universe. I agree that we need to maximize the use of the VAST resources that are available to us in the form of the asteroids plus what we know to be present on the Moon & Mars. L2 and CIS-Lunar space are the key in the near term. Every building has a foundation. L2/CIS-Lunar space will be our foundation.
The VSE was introduced with no customers and a grossly underestimated cost. The taxpayers aren’t going to foot the bill, as John McCain clearly pointed out in 2004. Commercial space has a solid foundation and a plausible future.