NASA Is Not Worried About Russia – While Everyone Else Is
Recent History Suggests Tougher Russia Sanctions Are Needed, WS Journal
“The U.S. and Europe made good this week on their threats to start penalizing broader sections of Russia’s economy in a bid to force President Vladimir Putin to end his support for separatist rebels in Ukraine. But recent history of the use of financial sanctions by Washington and Brussels–including against Iran, North Korea and Syria–suggests that significantly more pervasive penalties, particularly against Moscow’s energy sector, would be needed to change the Kremlin’s calculations, said current and former U.S. officials and sanctions experts.”
NASA PAO statement from Bob Jacobs: “We don’t anticipate Tuesday’s actions will have any direct impact on NASA’s activities with Russia. For specific questions on sanctions I would refer you to the Departments of Treasury and Commerce.”
Keith’s note: I am not sure how anyone in the U.S. government can “anticipate” what Putin/Russia are going to do next – especially after they invaded Ukraine, annexed Crimea, and killed hundreds of innocent people on an airliner. Fiddling with space stuff would be easy by comparison.
I think nearly everyone this side of the Ural Mountains grossly underestimates how stoic the Russians can be, and by default Czar Putin. Recall WWII’s staggering losses to the Motherland at the Siege of Stalingrad. Russia ended up losing 35 MILLION men in the war, mostly adult males , nearly an entire generation. Yet ten years later they were threatening the world with their might and determination, and has the Free World in reactive mode.
Therefore, any economic sanctions will have to rise to the order of magnitude that Russians felt with Stalingrad and WWII before they will take notice.
A few tens of millions $$$ lost to the US for Soyuz taxi rides and RD-180 engine sales will be a pittance alongside the much greater energy and banking sanctions, but they will have much greater propaganda clout . The cascade effect thru the entire US space program both civilian and military , and ISS , could be dramatic.
NASA needs to pull its head out of its…uh , space helmet. It’s the first move towards saving face.
Can anyone give an example where economic sanctions has worked?
Seems to me that the people of the sanctioned country suffer and end up hating the group that has made their lives worse?
Some say Ronald Reagon brought down the Soviet Union with his Stars threat. Is that really true?
The Soviet Union was brought down byinternal forces. However sanctions had major impact in South Africa and have greatly affected Iran. Because of the dependance of Europe on Russian energy resources effective sanctions seem unlikely.
That’s a question that will be debated through time. What caused the American Civil War? Same sort of question with too many dependent answers.
As to sanctions: I live in southern Florida, and have seen the effect of sanctions on Cuba with a bit more immediacy. It’s the normal people who suffer. Like us. Not the big dogs. Same in Iran and anywhere else. I’m not sufficiently familiar with the effect in SA.
Cuba is not subject to any multinational regime of sanctions, it’s pretty much just the U.S. government that imposes trade and travel restrictions on its nationals. Cuba suffers, not because of nearly irrelevant U.S. sanctions, but because it has a totalitarian socialist government.
Canada has no sanctions or travel restrictions anent Cuba, but, apart from a few doctrinaire or nostalgic commies, not too many Canadians vacation there. Why? Because Cuba is, let’s face it, a formerly prosperous country that has been reduced to third-world hellhole status by leftist goons.
The automotive population of Cuba famously looks like a faded memory of the 50’s U.S., plus some Ladas left over from the Soviet satellite days. This is so not because the U.S. refuses to sell Cuba new cars for ideological reasons, but because no one else will sell them new cars for financial reasons.
Cuba is church mouse poor because its economy is mismanaged by ideological zealots and looted by well-connected opportunists and Castro family courtiers.
Cuba is simply not a useful example when evaluating the efficacy of sanctions is the issue.
Present-day Russia is not the WW2-era Soviet Union any more than the present-day U.S. is the America of WW2. The Russian people will support Putin so long as his little imperial adventures are relatively speedy and cheap. The 2008 test foray into Georgia qualified, though Georgia got in more good licks than Putin initially expected.
Ukraine, except for the initial foray into Crimea, does not seem to be shaping up to be as easy an opponent. If the current border slugfest drags on too long, involves too many casualties or even – perish forbid – induces Ukrainians to make cross-border raids into Russia to silence all those guns and artillery rockets Russia has been bombarding them with, the Russian public is not likely to stay so supportive.
Putin ain’t Stalin, much as he’d like to be. If he tries to resurrect The Terror, he’ll be deposed. The Russians will not put up with eating grass for this guy. They accepted sacrifices in WW2 because they were the victims of aggression. They won’t do likewise to support petty aggressions of their own if the price gets very high.
It is for this reason that I think it a virtual certainty Russia will embargo RD-180’s and may even abandon ISS before 2020. Both are high-profile potential ripostes to American sanctions and cheap in the larger geopolitical scheme of things. Doing either would be seen by the Russian public as significant finger-pokes to America’s eyes and would inconvenience or injure only a tiny minority of Russians.
So I quite agree with you that NASA should face reality – the sooner the better. But it will be because the Russian public likes cheap symbolism a lot more than it would like hunkering down for even a limited replay of WW2-era sacrifices.
I thought those who supported the civilian U.S. space program were optimistic and pragmatic in their world view. Perhaps they wish for the immediate return to earth of Wiseman and Swanson, scuttling the ISS and NASA annexed to the Pentagon? I personally am not convinced as Mr. Cowing that Putin murdered the passengers and air crew of MH-17. I want indisputabe (and independent) proof of that.
What Keith said:
What you twisted it into:
Oh the subtleties and nuances of grammar. But his original inference was that Putin is guilty of something, consequently NASA should prepare for the worst and is being naive.
Yes, that was a twist, but Keith’s sentence *did* say “they … killed hundreds of innocent people”, “they” clearly meaning Russia. We don’t really know if it was “murder” or only “negligent manslaughter”, but there is a real difference. Very likely the separatists fired a Russian-supplied missile on their own, thinking it was a Ukrainian military aircraft. I very much doubt that it was deliberate mass murder by anyone, just as I doubt that the captain of the USS Vincennes that shot down the Iranian airbus A300 in 1988, with 300 passengers on board, had mass-murderous intent. We all need to keep careful watch over our language, and our thinking. But things do happen, hundreds of innocent women and children do get torn to pieces by accident, and there is plenty of blame to go around.
I agree with Keith that there is no telling what Putin may do, and the ISS may well be small change in his calculations.
And how many innocent woman and children were killed in the Iraq war?? And are the lives of males any less precious? What about the poor suckers Saddam sent up against our untested war machine? I have a brother in law that was a 2 or 3 star general at that time that was glad our military could get some practical experience.
Why did we attack Iraq again after 911?
Wrong tribe
Well skin color was close
Lots of gas over there.
Why is Elon building Electric cars again?
How much does a tank of gas REALLY cost?
ADD
In Afghanistan I lost a nephew I’m not sure how many people he killed in his job as a sniper before a land mine blow him to bits. he was was under twenty five, Joined right after high school. Many tours of duty.
How about the fact that Putin has provided tanks, APC’s and – critical to the MH17 shootdown – track-mounted quad BUK (SA-11) surface-to-air missile batteries to the alleged “separatists” in Ukraine? How about the fact said “separatists” posted video on-line boasting of downing what they thought to be a Ukrainian transport aircraft, then quickly took it down when their target turned out to be a civilian airliner. The Internet being forever, of course, one can still find the original video on-line a lot of places.
Given that, as Paul451 notes below, most of the “separatists” are not ethnic-Russian Ukrainians but actual Russians from interior regions of Russia, Putin wasn’t really supplying heavy armaments to “insurgents” but to covert units of the Russian Army.
So, is Putin responsible for shooting down MH17? Short answer; yeah, he is.
I have to agree, it really really looks that way to me. A lot of those guys are Russian (both ethnic and actually Russian citizens). Now I don’t know how closely they work with the state/military of Russia, and I’ve read a bunch of them have operated rogue-ly in the Balkans and other places so that’s hard to tell, but it really boils down to the conclusion you said.
Of course he is responsible, in the same way anyone who takes acts of war or assists in them is (partly) responsible. Innocent folks get killed in wars. But is is a mis-use of language to call that “murder”. Governments do that sort of thing all the time, for lots of murky reasons, bad and good. And of course even good people disagree about such things.
Putin apparently believes he is a Russian patriot, duty bound to restore the glory of the old Soviet/Russian empire. (And incidentally glorify himself as Hero, of course.)
The bottom line is he is dangerous, and we have to deal with it; lets hope without a nuclear confrontation.
There are no Russian separatists in Ukraine. These are Russian speaking Ukrainian citizens fighting for their survival.
Actually the majority of the actual “Self Defence Force” militia combatants are Russian nationals, “former” soldiers and “veterans” from the Russian army and GRU-run special forces. Their military and civilian leaders are likewise both Moscow natives with no prior ties to Ukraine. Only 10% or so of the militia are (ethnic-Russian) Ukrainians, and none in significant positions within the SDF.
NASA has no alternative to the status quo. So what else can it say?
Reacting rationally to radically changed circumstances that arise suddenly is not really a core competency of any government bureaucracy. NASA will go on pretending everything is alright until smacked upside the head with sufficient sharpness by undeniable circumstances. If ULA gets no more RD-180’s by 8/31/2014, for instance, then it’s going to be game over for Atlas V. NASA is going to have to figure out some other way to launch a lot of its upcoming science missions.
“If ULA gets no more RD-180’s by 8/31/2014, for instance, then it’s going to be game over for Atlas V”
How many time you said that already, only with different dates?
Law is not created by twitters made by thug with unhealthy affection to trampolines. Even in Russia. Get over it.
I was recently informed by another commenter on another forun that the expected dates of receipt for small shipments of RD-180’s by ULA are in August and October. I had previously thought these shipments were expected later than that. I’m simply predicting that August 31st will pass without any RD-180’s having appeared. I don’t expect that ULA will see any in October either.
It is my additional expectation that Putin or his usual stooges will probably make no official declaration about their de facto halt of RD-180 shipments until NASA and USAF show some sign of moving off of forlorn hope and into palliative action. I suspect it will amuse him greatly to remain Sphinx-like as NASA dithers in indecision and continues to indulge false hopes. That’s the sort of fellow he is.
If I tend to repeat myself, it is only because so many space advocates seem to entertain a great many entirely fictional ideas about Russia and have no compunction about spreading their foolishness far and wide.
These engines could arrive because the bureaucracy has not had time to change. it is the engines whose transport has not been granted high level approval that will be stopped.
I see high ranking people in RCS are being replaced.
And how many times have you said that.
The threat came from the deputy Prime Minister of Russia and head of the Russian space program.
Allowing the US to use Soyuz is not a “law”, it’s an agreement with the Russian space agency. If the Russian government decides to throw a tantrum, they need only sign an order. And the guy who would sign that order, is the guy who made the threat.
You expect me to treat it seriously?
Don’t misunderstand – indeed, RD-180 could be banned. But it will NOT be via Twitter or whatever ludicrous base you have for that.
Looking forward for excuses when engines will arrive. Oh wait, Andrew M Swallow already is making them up below.
The head of the Russian space program and Putin-insider made a threat against the US space program in response to personal sanctions.
Even if you think that the threat was just a drunken idiotic rant by a
stupid thug… how is it not a valid concern that the US’s space
program is dependent on the whims of the sort of stupid thug
who makes drunken threats over twitter.
Then why the hell are you criticising people who point that out?
You might say, “Well, even ESA could decide to cut the US off from Ariane, say for JWST!” except the ESA is run by grown-ups. The RCS is controlled by a childish, thin-skinned bully.
I think I must clarify something.
I did not criticized people that worry about possible ban and need for countermeasures.
I criticize people claiming that ban is *already in place*, based on… one or two Twitter posts. Sheesh.
Why I criticise that?
Because this ban, if it happens, will be done via official Russian goverment procedures and officially announced, not by Twitter post. Even in Russia laws (including sanctions and counter-sanctions) are not created via Twitter posts.
AFAIK currently, at this moment, there is no ban concerning RD-180.
ULA is expecting two RD-180’s to arrive sometime in August. I say they won’t show up. I also say the three engines ULA is expecting in October won’t show up. In, at most, four weeks we’ll all have a much better idea of who is likelier to be right on this subject.
As for Russian “laws,” your point is wrong. Russia, as currently constituted, is an autocracy, not a nation of laws. The law, and policy associated with law, is whatever Vladimir Putin says it is.
Nor is he obligated to announce what it is. Russians like to keep foreigners guessing. All Russia has to do – after not shipping expected RD-180’s – is clam up. They can let over-optimistic Westerners make excuses for them and defer doing anything that would constructively address the new realities of aerospace supply chains that pass thru Russia.
Time to informally ask Blue origin what their LEO and GEO payloads are. Also ask when a fairing will be available.
Hear of any tests lately?
NASA (and Congress) needs to get SpaceX and Sierra Design’s crew transport systems working on the double. And prepare to maintain the ISS without Russian support by 2020 or before. We can do it — but not if we fail to take the threat seriously, starting very soon.
Oh, I see, Will; you want the government to plan ahead! Good idea! 🙂 It’s planning that got us into this mess.
Not Wil, if you are thinking of the actor, just Bill. I am sorry about the confusion, but I got there 30 years earlier. 🙂
Whereas Congress, including… no, especially the guys whining the loudest about Russia, are increasing their resistance to Commercial Crew, and particularly SpaceX.
I’ve said before, put together an ad-hoc life-support system for two people to fly in a cargo Dragon capsule on short notice. Then, if Russia bans the US from Soyuz, divert a CRS cargo resupply mission to an emergency crew launch.
Even if it’s individual pressure suit oxygen supplies, with manually changed CO2 scrubbers. As long as it works. The only thing you lack is launch abort system. But if SpaceX can kill the engines at any point in the flight, the only real danger is total engine failure at low altitude, or a catastrophic vehicle failure at some point later.
You don’t have full docking, you’ll have to berth via the robot arm; and you splash-down instead of landing. But those are not fatal problems. Hell even astronaut comms are optional.
It shouldn’t cost much to develop such an emergency system, chairs and life-support. And merely having such a backup plan would (IMO) reduce the likelihood of Russia playing its card. (It would be a useless gesture if Russia banned the US from Soyuz in a grand display of power, and a month later the US flies two astronauts on Dragon. Russia wouldn’t risk the loss of face.)
It is only about 2 years before Dragon V2.0 flies.
The only things we can do at this time is keep the money flowing and some morale raising cheer leading. Tell the politicians to keep both the speeches and the girl’s skirts short.