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Commercialization

New Commercial Moon Study

By Marc Boucher
NASA Watch
September 10, 2014
Filed under

New Commercial Moon Services Study Available, SpaceRef Business
“The Space Angels Network brought to my attention a new study by Chad Anderson a Managing Director of the Space Angels Network. Chad completed the study while obtaining his MBA at Oxford. The study was finished in 2013 but has only been recently made public.”

Executive Summary
“With a focus on cost reduction the emergence of commercial launch providers is dramatically increasing access to space, enabling new markets like lunar transportation. SpaceX, for example, has already lowered the cost of mass to orbit by a factor of 10 and is projecting another 40 to 60 percent reduction. Additionally, the $30 million Google Lunar X Prize has initiated competition to reach the lunar surface by 2015, and like many competitions before, is spurring the creation of an entirely new industry, this time for lunar services. Of the 23 companies competing there are two established front runners: Astrobotic and Moon Express. Each of these companies are in the competition for more than just the prize money. With long-term aspirations, both companies are looking to capitalize on 40+ years of pent up demand for lunar science and services. Additionally, at least two government agencies in addition to NASA are developing lunar landers with aspirations of reaching the lunar surface. A market for lunar services is already emerging and while some companies are focused on developing longer-term plans to return humans to the lunar surface, there are also many companies with nearer-term needs for lunar services.
This study estimates the current and forecasted demand for lunar services through 2020. The goal of this study is to provide information to Astrobotic decision makers on the emerging market for lunar activity by analyzing customers, market size, trends, and areas of uncertainty in eight distinct potential markets. This study was conducted without pay by Chad Anderson.”

SpaceRef co-founder, entrepreneur, writer, podcaster, nature lover and deep thinker.

18 responses to “New Commercial Moon Study”

  1. gearbox123 says:
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    “Additionally, at least two government agencies in addition to NASA are developing lunar landers with aspirations of reaching the lunar surface.”

    That’s almost alarming.

    Too bad we squandered our lead in the space race. Go, private sector!

    • Spacetech says:
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      “Too bad we squandered our lead in the space race”
      What race would that be? Last time I checked the USA is the only country to land men on the moon and has built a 425 metric ton space station.

      • gearbox123 says:
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        We built the space station with a lot of help (Russia, Germany, Italy, France) and China will be back on the moon before we will. Face it, we got to the moon and then we stopped. NASA squandered their time and money on the Shuttle, and turned itself into a giant full-employment program for government project managers.

        If we ever go back to the moon, my guess is it will be because of Elon Musk and people like him, not NASA.

        • Vladislaw says:
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          China has not launched the first element of their new space station yet and have already moved the schedule 2 years to the right .. 2022.
          I believe China has got a full plate before they sink billions in to a human mission to Luna.

          • dogstar29 says:
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            We’re not in a race. A race would serve no purpose for China. If they lost they would look incompetent. If they won they would irritate their biggest customer. China’s goal is to be part of an international cooperative effort in space. Excluded from the ISS, China will try to bring together as many partners as it can in their own program. There is no deadline and they are making slow but steady progress.

          • Andrew_M_Swallow says:
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            The Chinese may not be in a race but they have already overtaken Britain and are on their way to overtaking the USA.

        • Vladislaw says:
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          pushed back even farther than I thought… 2023

          “The 2023 launch target was revealed at the International Astronautical Congress (IAC) in
          Beijing.”

          http://www.bbc.com/news/sci

          • Andrew_M_Swallow says:
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            What is the practical difference between a science lab in space and a spacestation? The Chinese are launching a lab in ‘2 years’ time.

          • Vladislaw says:
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            The practical difference is you live work at a station full time. A science lab you set up and leave and come later for results. DragonLab for instance comes to mind. That is not even man tended at all.

          • Andrew_M_Swallow says:
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            Thank you.

    • Jeff Smith says:
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      I don’t think we squandered our lead at all. We’ve spent the past several decades disseminating knowledge to academia and private industry while also keeping the nation free enough to allow individuals the ability to create and innovate. The USA has DOZENS of space programs at each of the NASA centers, military bases, private companies, and major universities in the nation. Over the past 40 yeasr we did the REALLY hard work: training an entire legion of space professionals and entrepreneurs. The USA is going to burst out of the gate and make everyone else look like amateurs. All without a single, centralized, “national” program to speak of!

  2. Steve Pemberton says:
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    As Heinlein said, get to low-Earth orbit and you’re halfway to anywhere in the solar system. So as the reality of the dramatic lowering of launch costs starts to sink in, especially if it continues, then we will see more and more people starting to rethink what is feasible in just about every area of space exploration and exploitation

    • Michael Spencer says:
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      I hope you are right, Steve. The next big step is figuring out how to get space-available resources into the economy of the planet. Such a thing requires huge leaps for in situ tech or a way to return raw materials to the surface. Either way, once it happens we will own the Solar System.

      • hikingmike says:
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        Reading your comment, I’m reminded of all the tax inversion deals going on lately. The difference is that doesn’t apply for space right now (to keep resources off-planet) because there isn’t any development off-planet to use them. Start some development off-planet, and you start a market for relatively cheap off-planet resources.

  3. Dennis Ray Wingo says:
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    I don’t necessarily agree with its findings, but it is good that the effort be made…

    • Vladislaw says:
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      What parts did you have trouble with? I was kind of sceptical about some of the dating predictions.

      “Demand Forecast

      This study assumes that Astrobotic will transport NASA’s 230 kg RESOLVE rover to the lunar surface in 2017. This mission will serve as a catalyst for commercial mining missions, which are expected to ramp up following that initial prospecting mission. The baseline forecast is driven primarily by surface payload delivery, as companies send their own robots and rovers to the surface to prospect and mine. This forecast assumes that two mining companies are competing in the lunar land grab, likely Caterpillar and Bechtel. This scenario assumes that each company will prospect and mine according to the following timeline: At first the companies show limited initial interest in lunar mining through the purchase of data from Astrobotic’s “Polaris” mission in 2016/17. To prospect, the first company will proactively purchase a 3 kg mobile LunarCube and put a 6 kg imaging satellite into lunar orbit to coincide with the RESOLVE mission in 2017. Following the RESOLVE mission, that company will then send their own 80 kg prospecting rover to the lunar surface in the next launch, followed by delivery of work horse robots for mining, crushing, sifting, and sorting (weighing 120 kg each) in 2018. This company will continue to send the equivalent of two to three lunabots to the lunar surface throughout the forecast period as they ramp up production and prepare for the human support phase of mining. The second company is expected to enter the market following a similar timeline, however on a one-year lag.”
      Four players by 2018-2019? I believe that may be a bit opptimistic, unless they are getting inside information. You would almost have to be ordering and scheduling the launches now. Have not seen any to date.

      • hikingmike says:
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        “This forecast assumes that two mining companies are competing in the lunar land grab”… “Caterpillar and Bechtel”

        What? Caterpillar makes equipment (sometimes used for mining). Bechtel is a bigtime construction contractor, that does do mining projects.

        What about Rio Tinto? Rio Tinto is a mining company. They sometimes hire Bechtel.

        I would like to know the reasons he picked these two. His assumption seems rather flippant.

        The assumptions here kind of look out of control. I know we have a year on the study but still… I would agree though that this kind of study is something that needs to be done so that’s a major positive.

      • DTARS says:
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        I wish Mr. Wingo would answer your question.