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Food For Thought

By Keith Cowing
NASA Watch
November 3, 2014
Filed under

NASA Watch founder, Explorers Club Fellow, ex-NASA, Away Teams, Journalist, Space & Astrobiology, Lapsed climber.

29 responses to “Food For Thought”

  1. Yale S says:
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    It was horrible, horrible that people lost their lives or were injured. But this is not going into space. It is creating a (dangerous) fiberglass amusement park ride for 1%ers and celebs. There really is no growth path for this. Between the massive sonic booms, limited velocity and range, limited re-entry capability it has no place to advance. It is not a stepping stone technology. That one billion dollars could go to money-starved real system like Skylon,

    The SS2 was planned to have a satellite option, LauncherOne. It was a 2 stage expendable like a Pegasus capable of a 1/4 ton LEO – for $10,000,000! That is $44,000 per kilogram. No market whatsoever, with the multiple options on line or soon to be.

    Abu Dhabi was biggest funder and hoped to build a local spaceport to give bored fat-cats a thrill ride, and to launch satellites. The perfect region! Just what the world needs – proliferating a vehicle that can drop a nuclear warhead anywhere on earth in less than 40 minutes.

    Yes, it was a fascinating clean sheet of paper project for SpaceShipOne, but it was a dead end, just like the incredible McCready human-powered aircraft. Some interesting stuff coming from both projects, but nothing essential.

    This was a personal tragic loss, but it has nothing to do with humans exploring and traveling to the New Frontier.

    • Steve Pemberton says:
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      In the 1920’s barnstormers gave people rides in airplanes, which for most people back then was the equivalent of what flying into space is now. From what I have heard the typical ride was five minutes (similar to SS2 time in space) and cost about five dollars. That was a lot of money back then and only someone with some disposable income would have spent that much money on a five minute thrill ride. But was it just a thrill ride? A carnival ride is just a ride. Flying was our destiny. Barnstorming played at least a small part in advancing the concept of ordinary people flying through the atmosphere. Even though for the first few decades it was pretty much only the 1%ers and celebs who could afford to fly, as it took several decades of continued technical development (and yes deregulation) before the average person could afford to do so.

      Going into space is also human destiny and so I don’t see the first flights of ordinary people into space as trivial regardless of whether it is only five minutes in space and costs more than most people can afford. This is a first step.

      As for the money, the development is being done with private money, and ultimately paid for by customers who choose to purchase flights. If you want to criticize them for how they are spending their own money go ahead but then why don’t you also include all the money spent on entertainment, sports, fashion, etc. including advertising revenue, all of which adds up to hundreds of billions of dollars annually. Personally I prefer to let people spend their money on what they want and if they want to spend it on space tourism all the better in my opinion.

      • Yale S says:
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        I think it was people like Lindbergh or Earhardt pushing envelopes that propelled aviation.

        It was WWII that created the civillian air industry.

        Pre-war civil aviation was just a 1% toy.

        A $250,000 ticket is not comparable to a $5 ticket in 1930. Many people could blow that much cash

        Barnstorming was not about rides outside of the show. That was gravy for the pilots. It was the thrill show for mass audiences that was important (altho maybe in a negative way).

        After a handful of either successful or unsuccessful 15 min jaunts, SSx will disappear from public view and consciousness. Except for accidents, there is no mass audience. Hell, ask anyone at random if there are astronauts in space right now.

        What is much closer to possibility and effectiveness (not much in any case) will be a fleet of XCOR Lynx IIIs.

        http://xcor.com/lynx/

        • John Campbell says:
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          Some people cannot cope with the idea that others think and imagine differently… or have their own idea of what adventure consists of.

          It is a good thing we do not think with one mind.

          • DTARS says:
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            I agree with many of your thoughts.

            Join my group/religon/team/party/country/it will be nice/ comfortable/safe

            Nice to be around those you agree with.

            Since we agree, we must be right.

            What should we call our tribe?

            The others are evil, we are good.
            Dont try to understand them. They are so different.

          • John Campbell says:
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            Humans still have some herd instincts, though, instead of genetic herd, we tend to cluster into memetic herds.

            Religious fervor can be found in secular causes, too, y’know, but these are memetic clusters…

            Hmmmm… I guess that qualifies as a memetic form of inbreeding, doesn’t it?

        • Steve Pemberton says:
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          “Barnstorming was not about rides outside of the show. That was gravy for the pilots. It was the thrill show for mass audiences that was important”

          Barnstormers made their living selling airplane rides. The aerial displays and stunts were designed to attract a crowd so that they could sell airplane rides. They canvassed pretty much the entire country doing this in towns large and small. Back then the first airplane that most people in rural areas saw up close was when a barnstormer, or a team of barnstormers (a flying circus) came to town. Of course in larger cities there were also airshows and exhibitions but that wasn’t barnstorming, even though some barnstormers appeared in those shows.

          “A $250,000 ticket is not comparable to a $5 ticket in 1930”

          I can’t think of anything more obvious which is why I never claimed that it was.

          $5 calculates as almost $70 in today’s money. Do you think anyone then or now would spend $70 on a five minute carnival ride? This was different, it was fulfilling the dream of flight, and even people in rural areas were willing to spend that kind of money. People today would probably spend much more than that to fly into space. Hopefully one day the price of a suborbital flight will be low enough that someone can decide on whether to go on yet another cruise or maybe try something different and fly into space. Right now it’s $250,000 because the rich people are currently subsidizing the R&D that will hopefully make this possible.

          “I think it was people like Lindbergh or Earhardt pushing envelopes that propelled aviation”

          I could have stated that barnstorming had a major impact on commercial aviation but I don’t believe that which is why I said that it played a small part. Thanks for supporting my statement by providing several examples of things that had a greater impact than barnstorming.

          By the way since you mentioned Lindbergh and Earhart – Charles Lindbergh started as a barnstormer. And Amelia Earhart’s first airplane ride was at a state fair when her father paid barnstormer Frank Hawks $10 to take her up for a ten minute ride. Earhart later said that that the experience changed her life and she immediately knew that she wanted to become an aviator.

          • Vladislaw says:
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            On November 5th thousands of people showed up in Pasadena, California to witness the arrival of Calbraith Rodgers after a 49 day flight across the United States. Rodgers made 69 stops along the way and was followed by a special train carrying spare parts. He made 16 crash landings. Rodgers’
            trip was sponsored by Armour Meat Packing Companhy to promote “VIn Fiz” a soft drink. Rodger received $5 for each mile from Armour for a total of $21,605″

            http://www.historycentral.c

      • Yale S says:
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        A coast-to-coast airline flight in the late 1930’s cost $300 (in 2014 money equivalent $5,000), with shorter distance scaling down. Quite expensive, but for business people the savings in time was worth the money. That cannot be compared to a quarter million bucks spent on a 15 minute vertical thrill ride.

      • Yale S says:
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        “As for the money, the development is being done with private money, and ultimately paid for by customers who choose to purchase flights.”

        Well, there is a stupendous amount of taxpayer money going into these spaceports along with foreign government cash. but, I have no problem with with Virgin spending its cash. I just don’t like the negative publicity tainting more valuable efforts. Just as SpaceX took a hit when Orbital exploded, they all take a hit when celebrity Virgin fails.

        • Michael Spencer says:
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          Exact;y so. States and counties fall all over themselves to offer long-term tax advantages. It’s maddening.

          Lee County here in Florida has gone so far as this: the Commission agreed to a huge deal without even knowing the name of the company.

  2. John Campbell says:
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    Why go to space?

    How many have died learning to live outside of the trees?
    How many have died learning to live on the land?
    How many have died discovering agriculture?
    How many have died learning to swim?
    How many have died learning to build floating craft?
    How many have died learning how to row?
    How many have died learning to use sails?
    How many have died learning to cross the Mediterranean?
    How many have died in the process of learning to cross oceans?
    How many have died crossing the Atlantic?
    How many have died crossing the Pacific?
    How many have died exploring the north and south geographic poles?
    How many have died learning to fly?

    Each high price teaches us something, and, in some ways, the only way to give each of those lives spent expanding our horizons is to expand INTO those horizons.

    Each death goads us to learn more, to make the path safer for the next… and the next… and the rest of us.

    It isn’t about Space Ship 2; It isn’t about the simple things, it is about that which marks us as human, to boldly go and place new footsteps where no one has trod before.

    • Yale S says:
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      It is about Space Ship 2
      This pointless dead end rich boy toy tars all legitimate enterprise. There is nothing that this teaches us. The general public does not see the difference between this forever limited technology and Orion, or Dragon, or Skylon, or any number exciting envelope-pushing adventures into the future.

      This was a painful and terrible yacht sinking.

      • John Campbell says:
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        Lessons written in blood seem to be learned more easily than otherwise.

        How many died for the greater glory of the Dutch East India Company?

        And whining about alternate technologies as if they were already mature… well, how much ya wanna bet that lives will be lost before they mature?

        Hell, CONSTRUCTION WORKERS die during the construction phase of any large project.

        Everything worth-while to humanity has usually been purchased with blood.

        Even some “mature” technologies aren’t enough to save mountain climbers…

        So, yea, whine all you want… but mankind’s expansionism has usually been pioneered by proxies to make someone else rich(er).

        D’you _really_ think Musk is completely altruistic?

      • Bernardo de la Paz says:
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        The unique thing about Virgin Galactic is they are risking only their own money and only their own lives, so it really is only their own business. None of the rest of us have any say in the matter.

      • OpenTrackRacer says:
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        Do you feel the same way about Amelia Earhart and Fred Noonan? Virgin Galactic as absolutely a legitimate enterprise and if successful, may pave the way for SpaceShip Three and beyond, always improving the breed and enabling small satellite launches and global high speed travel.

        You lack of vision is disgusting.

  3. Yale S says:
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    I think that clip was a straw man. There is for sure a powerful anti-science crusade against science in school by crazed religious fanatics, but their target is biology, geology, astronomy, and physics – things that appear to conflict with their fairy tale beliefs

    I am totally unaware of and cannot believe that teaching the moon hoax as part of some agenda exists. Very cheesy.

    I don’t agree that “The only hope of solving problems on Earth is to leave the Earth.”. Every one of our problems has a number on sensible, effective, and affordable solutions. It is our political, religious, special interest, and ignorance that prevents a better world – which we would bring with us “out there”.

    We may colonize other worlds (I live for that idea), but nothing will make this a “garden planet” unless we HERE make it so.

    • John Campbell says:
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      Read the scifi story “Fallen Angels” ( http://www.baenebooks.com/c… ) which has its own discussion of anti-science attitudes.

      Also, IIRC, Asimov has stated, I think, “while technology can cause problems, ignorance will not solve them”.

    • Rich_Palermo says:
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      yales: “I think that clip was a straw man.”

      Ain’t that the truth. There are real examples of anti-science yahoovery aplenty but that clip ain’t one.

      “If you’re wondering how he eats and breathes / And
      other science facts / Then repeat to yourself ‘It’s just a show, / I
      should really just relax.'”
      — Mystery Science Theatre 3000

  4. jon_downfromthetrees says:
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    The loss of life is sorrowful as it always is, but the trite finger-pointing demeans and exploits that loss.

    We explore and we make tools to help us explore. That’s what defines humanity. Without that, we’re mildly clever great apes hiding from predators in east Africa.

    To my eye, the Virgin Galactic effort has precious lttle to do with space travel. They’ve built an airplane that can coast above the 100km mark. It suffers from the Shuttle’s basic problem twice over: It doesn’t go anywhere.

    But, still, they wished it and then they built it. I didn’t build it, and neither did you. So, good for them for doing what people ought to do. If I could afford it, I’d fly in it.

    • John Campbell says:
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      There are ALWAYS lessons learned even though this “toy” might be considered “nothing new”.

      There are always variables… and Murphy’s 3rd law: “When nothing has gone wrong, this is the time to panic”.

  5. DTARS says:
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    The cartoon Says “we can’t help ourselves” Why? Because exploring is what we have done forever to survive. What are we exploring for? Resources, habitat, Thats why Musks survival argument Makes so much sense. We will not find utopia out there. It will be hard. But bottom line is we will need resources from Space and other islands to stay on if we are to continue.

    • John Campbell says:
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      Humans look for loop-holes; It seems to be genetic, though, for short times, memetic therapy seems capable of temporarily sheepifying a human being (a lot depends upon the foundation of the culture, too).

      We push. Our “selfish” genes want us to expand to fill in more evolutionary niches… or create new ones.

      Of course we can’t help it. No one is 100% in following the laws, for instance, so everyone, at one time or another, will edge above the speed limit “where it makes sense to do so”.

      When humans are fully domesticated and sheepified we will stop looking up and invent new kinds of shoes. (All right, that’s a blatant steal from Douglas Adams’ “Shoe Event Horizon”, but, if you look around a dying mall, the last shops before final closure are usually shoe shops.)

  6. DTARS says:
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    I like being human and humanity too. But I do feel that we could do a much better job of caring for the other creatures we share this planet with. Being the top “dog” I feel that is our responsiblity. We are on course to wipe out many of the mammals.

    Part of my reason for going to Space is to be able to not have to get our resources from earth.

    Imagine
    If most of our energy came from solar or nuclear power stations in orbit which took care of all our transportation needs. What if we even grow most of our food at these energy stations. Once we get affordability off this rock anything is possible.

  7. John Campbell says:
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    Consider how Kansas wants to “correct” the biology text-books, too, and that keeps coming up… We just don’t pay as much attention to the debate ‘cuz it keeps happening.

    Science is a process of TESTING what we think we know. If something cannot be tested, we cannot know how true it is reflecting reality.

    Testing the limits of flight is something some folks do. Others of us test ourselves. I test my co-workers to see if they can survive my attempts at humorous utterances (and, yes, I added “Stand Up Philosopher” to my work e-mail “official” signature).

    Every one of us with a job in a corporation are working to make SOMEONE ELSE richer; If we can make something useful to those around us, we make something for ourselves and our personal feeling of accomplishment (over and above enriching someone else).

    If I could fly? If I could easily afford a seat? Hell, I’d love to get the ride Shuttleworth did in 2002!

    I’ve heard from some who do fly that flight can be addictive and there is likely– even now– a very long line of competent pilots that want one of those seats.

    Virgin Galactic starts out as high priced… but, as technology matures and costs are better controlled (and technology more efficient) the prices will drop as capability expands and availability expands.

    Sure, we don’t NEED it. We didn’t need telephones, did we. We didn’t need cellular telephones either since regular phones were, for the most part, pervasive. We didn’t NEED a lot of things… and now we’re in a culture that has that kind of technology as one of the foundations.

    Humans, it appears, crave novelty. Some of the novelty these days is turned inwards (Roddenberry’s “The Cage”) for a large number of television-addicted people; For others, it is turned outwards.

  8. mfwright says:
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    Sy Liebergot said at a Engineers Week banquet, “Countries that stop exploring become third world countries.”

    • DTARS says:
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      Whats he mean by exploring. What’s a 3rd world country? That statement really doesn’t mean anything. Fear bullS$%&

      • mfwright says:
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        The term “3rd world country” (and most likely not PC these days) widely used during Cold War referring to undeveloped and poor countries that are basically stepped on or used by industrialized countries. “Exploring” refers to expansion, a strong industrial base, excellent education, etc. I fully agree with Sy, I could have simply posted the sentence if it originated with me but I didn’t. He was right in the middle of Apollo program, he also went to college in southern California in the middle of aerospace industrial expansion. Much of that infrastructure is gone. China used to be a 3rd world country that was stepped on by other countries, it is pretty much becoming the other way around for the US.

  9. dogstar29 says:
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    People become pilots because they feel a unique sense of reward in flight. It is to be a mater of one’s own fate, in a way seldom possible on the ground. Pilots aren’t suicidal, in fact they tend to be meticulous in both preparation and action. Nothing happens by chance. Care is taken to understand and minimize risk, though it cannot be completely eliminated.

    To be a test pilot, to test oneself against the limits of performance of both human and machine, is more demanding, but also more rewarding. And to be at the controls of a new, experimental rocket plane that can carry its passengers to the edge of space; I can’t imagine any test pilot who would not jump at the chance.

    Michael Alsbury certainly did not expect the flight to end as it did. But he was aware of the risk, and he chose to fly. We are all mortal. We know of no way to escape death. All we can choose is the manner in which we will live.