Bolden's Plan: Americans on Mars in 2016
Investing in Our Journey to Mars Posted on May 19, 2015 at 6:01 pm by Administrator Charles Bolden.
“This at a time when a new consensus is emerging around NASA’s goal, timetable, and plan for sending American astronauts to Mars by 2016. Make no mistake: This plan is clear. This plan is affordable, and this plan is sustainable.”
Keith’s note: “Sending American astronauts to Mars by 2016“ Charlie? Really?
This is a screengrab of what the blog post originally looked like – NASA eventually changed the post to say “2030s”.
So that warp drive is further along than we were lead to believe?
It sounds like a typo on his part, since I can’t recall a forming consensus around getting to Mars next year – unless he’s talking about some type of Apollo 8-style “go to Mars, circle it, come back” mission.
We couldn’t do that by 2016, but we could probably do it by 2020.
I’d be really surprised if this is even do-able in 2020. It’s gotta be a typo – maybe he meant 2026? How about the radiation problem?
TheBrett This has GOT to be a massive mistake in editing, someone is gonna get fired. Earlier he says “American astronauts to Mars in the 2030s” and of course there is no way that we could send anyone even into space now so we are not going to Mars next year.
The tone of the post seems to tell me that Charlie knows that he is in his last stretch in that job, he is no longer worried about getting along with Congress.
Perhaps Bolden read a chapter out of Musk’s book:
“He will pick the most aggressive time schedule imaginable assuming everything goes right, and then accelerate it by assuming that everyone can work harder”
http://www.bloomberg.com/gr…
No worries though. The Onion has confirmed the typo to be May 3016 +- a few months.
http://nasawatch.com/archiv…
A realistic plan is 2036, which allows infrastructure deployment in the mid to late 20s, assuming technology development in the next decade.
NASA makes a deal with SpaceX to fire the Dragon 2 test vehicle after its ISS mission, on a falcon heavy, to attempt a soft landing. There, it makes fuel and attempts a launch to Martian orbit.(just a mars hop would do)
Not a science mission, not to bring anything back, just a high risk hardware test.
Kinda like the Orion orbital test but cheaper. And riskier.
Isn’t Musk going to pay for the first falcon heavy test?
Won’t nasa have already paid for the Dragon two test vehicles that could be reused?
Couldn’t NASA outfit a Dragon with equipment to make fuel on Mars? Since they probably can’t make Draco fuel perhaps they launch a small missile out of dragon’s nose to attempt mars orbit.
That would be a good start Charlie?
When is the next mars window?
Just landing the thing on Mars would be an incredible achievement. Of course, it would need to deploy a greenhouse experiment; otherwise why bother?
The reason to bother is to demonstrate the cheaper propulsion landing techniques that SpaceX plans to use anyway. I can’t recall which nasa center developed it, plus proving that if you carry a little hydrogen alone you can make fuel on Mars.
A more fun idea would be to have SpaceX build a tesla with Google driving self driving skills and have it drive a marathon in an hour instead of years. Coming back to the Dragon after a trip to charge up from the Mars fueled generator. Remember how people got excited being able to SEE the sojourner car drive around?
Here is a “Red Dragon” Mars mission designed by NASA’s Ames Research:
https://www.youtube.com/wat…
Watched link 🙂
That was cool !
Does he mean a flyby in 2026 or a Phobos mission? Surely its a typo!?
I think Charlie is beginning to believe his own hype. Its mainly NASA that has been saying in the last year, focusing on the first Orion test, that it was the first step to Mars. NASA is further from Mars today than they were ten years ago. With the loss of the Apollo generation, essentially all of whom are long retired, there is no left who remembers how to design, build test, fly the hardware. The political problems both within NASA-which centers are knowledgeable, capable, experienced, are as bad as ever, and the political support problems-how to get a sustained budget boost of adequate size, just as bad as ever. What’s worse is there is no leadership in human space flight today, Bolden included. ISS is a prime example of too high a manpower level; they have resolved essentially none of their organizational problems. We have solved essentially none of the human health problems, radiation, problems, cosmic ray problems, hardware endurance problems. Unfortunately ISS ought to be used as a test bed to prove some of these things but the ISS systems and hardware are original equipment built decades ago and now long past their prime, and no new systems are being developed. Mars in the next 20 years? Not likely. .
“NASA is further from Mars today than they were ten years ago. With the loss of the Apollo generation, essentially all of whom are long retired, there is no left who remembers how to design, build test, fly the hardware.”
I keep reading such and then everyone also is impressed by Mr. Musk work which is done bye 14 year olds. SO does it really matter what we lost as long as the younger ones know how to read?
Literate 14 year olds are changing the world 🙂
That’s interesting. There must already be astronauts on their way to Mars for that to happen. Or did Mars suddenly get closer to Earth?
I think he may have been referring to Mars, Pennsylvania. Which by the way I think is quite doable by 2016.
To build a custom highway from Florida to Pennsylvania would cost a fortune and take at least a decade. How long would it take to transport SLS to Mars Pennsylvania on the crawler anyway. Think of all the shovel ready jobs that could be created.
Yep, its got to be a typo… try, 2036 at the very earliest. No way NASA could get a crew to Mars next year. No launch vehicle, no spacecraft, no flight plan, no leadership, no innovation, no money.
Pretty obvious he means having a Plan by 2016. I don’t believe that either, BTW.
Musk says he will release his MCT plan by the end of this year. So then Bolden would have his plan.
Sure, why not?
I’m sure it should read 2061
Two possibilities that occur to me:
1) it’s a horrible and embarrassing typo (secretary fired);
2) The ‘warp drive’ really does work and will be going fully public in a matter of days; weeks at most (offered in jest).
Sure it’s possible to get an American to Mars by 2016… but the trick is to convince Congress and the public that
a. The tiny sample of e-coli is from a native born American…. and
b. Can we get it safely back to earth? *
* – or they may opt instead to leave it on the surface in a big petri-dish (with a U.S. flag sticker), to start the first Martian-American colony
. . . Oooh, wait! Bolden was talking of HUMAN Americans!
(never mind then… that petri-dish would be inadaquate living space)
“Make no mistake: This plan is clear. “
WOW .. this plan is so clear it’s invisible!
American explorers will be on Mars in 2016 because they are already there. They are not humans, of course, but neither are they bacteria. They are robots.
Ideally adapted to survival in this hostile environment, today they are no more intelligent than an insect, but here on Earth robots are approaching human abilities, flying drones, driving cars and 18-wheelers on public roads, beating the best human players at Jeopardy and poker. If and when they will attain true human intelligence we cannot tell, but the distinction between biological humans and our intelligent constructs is becoming indistinct and meaningless. For the foreseeable future most of us will only experience Mars vicariously. What difference does it make if the virtual reality we experience is brought to us by explorers who are electromechanical rather than biological?
Unfortunately current plans for sending a handful of biological humans to Mars don’t appear as realistic and will be more expensive than any current estimate. NASA might wish to consider investing the money in accelerating AI development instead.
PS: My wife disagrees with me. She says there will never be a machine that has a soul.
Or a human, for that matter.
We are also soulless biochemical machines that has consciousness. So, if soulless machines go to Mars – hey, make it ME!
Because he only has about 20 months left, he can promise anything since he will not beheld accountable. Its been smoke and mirrors since the Administration abruptly canceled Constellation without a replacement/transition plan causing the rift with the Congress that exists to this day. Its funny how everyone here is reaching at straws in trying to gain meaning of what Charlie B says.
I don’t think he’s ever been afraid of being accountable since nobody ever is.
Every time I see what Bill Nye is doing over at the Planetary Society it pisses me off- not because I don’t admire the guy, but because imagine what he could do with he resources of NASA?
NASA’s leadership vacuum–failure to ignite popular imagination–is the sole and only reason for the malaise.
Bill Nye “leading NASA”, would sink it to yet lower levels. Now that is a frightening thought!
Great. You caught a typo and made blog post out of it.
And you replied.
Any Mars “plan” that lacks a defined path with interim milestones that include human lunar flights is bogus and lacks credibility. Let’s get back to the moon now and stop with the Mars smoke and mirrors BS.
Seems to me NASA should have a falcon/vulcan/raptor moon plan Excluding SLS and let Musk shoot for mars
SLS is the death of any serious EXPLORATION/settlement
Big rockets are coming soon in the private sector.
Musk said about 12 years till manned mars flight is possible.
That will not be with a falcon heavy.
I don’t think falcon heavy will be around very long before it is replaced with fully reusable raptor based rocket.
Falcon Heavy and Vulcan both have fairings only about 17 feet wide.
Seems a shorter wider rocket will be needed to get to Leo and that Mars moon refillable spaceship/fuel depot.
Wouldn’t a wider 2 stage rocket make sense that lands ON its launch pad and a standard crane mounts the second stage?
Looks like India is building a second stage with wings? Mount that on a reusable Falcon/ raptor first stage?
Look out ULA here comes the rest of the world. http://zeenews.india.com/ne…
Sure wish Boeing would build X-37D soon. Winged second stage and 30 passenger return. Have the first fully reusable passage liner, but they won’t 🙁