NASA Is Still Kicking The Can Down The Road on the #JourneyToMars
Make Mars great again: Can the 2016 election save NASA’s Journey to Mars?, Ars Technica
“Bolden hasn’t really leveled about two basic truths regarding Mars: it will cost a hell of a lot of money to do it NASA’s way, and it’s going to take a commitment like the nation hasn’t seen since the Apollo program. NASA presently has neither the money nor the commitment from Washington. Many who grasp the challenges of actually going to Mars, including those on the inside, realize this. “I can tell you that my colleagues, at least 90 percent if not more, don’t really think we have a good plan,” one veteran astronaut, who hopes to fly again and therefore sought anonymity, told Ars. Inside the astronaut office they joke about the Journey to Mars. “I think we’ve almost done negative work in the last seven years,” this flier said.”
– No One Knows/Cares How/When NASA Will Make The #JourneyToMars, earlier post
– Will NASA Ever Send Humans to Mars?, earlier post
– Another Stealth #JourneyToMars Telecon at NASA, earlier post
– Houston, We Need A Mars Plan, earlier post
– Space Policy White Paper = Shopping List For The Journey to Nowhere, earlier post
I don’t think Bolden or NASA have anyone’s commitment to Mars. Gerst has said not to worry too much about destinations. The Internationals have said they are interested in the Moon. Astronauts seem not to want to fly more one year missions to gather data points on human exposure. We are not expending much effort to develop the systems required for a Mars spacecraft. The astronaut colleagues don’t believe “we have a good plan”??? Why would anyone think we have any kind of a plan?About the only one to talk about Mars besides Bolden, is Obama, who is useless and will be gone soon (not soon enough, for my taste). He has made not one Iota’s worth of effort to actually support a destination beyond the Moon. He hasn’t made any effort to support the space program. I guess Bolden has been trying to show his Marine-like allegiance to his Commander in Chief, but he ought to stop saying stupid things.
We will boldly beat this can with women and men of NASA as only NASA can. We have been given an unique can to beat, and we have a perfect winding road in front of us. It is upon us to make sure this can is beaten well flat for our next generation. And our international partners are together with us in this great venture, even if we don’t share the same can. But with our leadership, no road will be too hard or too dusty to beat this can on. We also thank our support from Congress and the American people, without your support we would have no shoes to beat this can with.
Now, watch this drive!
Ahhh… Yes, of course. I also got the reference to the video of George W. Bush hitting a golf ball and telling the press core… “Now, watch this drive!” Yes!
We need another one, to update the NASA Watch files. The new one will sport Barrack Obama’s “leftie” stance.
No one is going to Mars. Right now the top echelon of NASA is just upholding the current President until he goes away. The next destination will be the Moon when we have someone in charge that can be in charge and has a clear vision for the future. A one shot trip to Mars will die even before a spacecraft is built to get there. Once the transportation infrastructuce for moon travel is established and experience is gained then we can successfully go to Mars. All the other attempts or propaganda is just science fiction right now.
“… and it’s going to take a commitment like the nation hasn’t seen since the Apollo program.”
What about the commitment the nation saw, um, say from April 2003 to 2011? Over $3,000,000,000,000 later, and a we got a shiny new what out of it? The future of this species seems to be getting bleaker all the time.
Plans — whether good, bad, or mediocre — are all but meaningless until there’s a societal committment to go to Mars.
Americans as a society have to feel a need to do it at the same time there is a president and political class that wish to do it. Only at that point will planning become serious.
To say this another way, the most outstanding plan conceivable won’t move humans one inch closer to Mars until the societal will is there. (Some sense of this could well explain the weariness among those making plans.)
The societal will comes first. Without it, nothing happens.
“O judgment! thou art fled to brutish beasts, and men have lost their reason.” The mob is feckless and fickle, and it’s passions and prejudices sway it’s mood far more than logic.
I see no coming together…
The will is there, until NASA tells Congress how much it’s going to cost, then they balk.
That’s exactly why there’s no credible NASA plan- the cost estimates for any sort of Mars mission the ‘NASA way’ have been over the moon, so to speak.
And still nobody breaths a word about the cost of maintaining a presence on Mars.
I’m guessing that if there’s to be a paradigm shift, as they say, it will happen this September in Mexico.
The question is not whether we should go, but whether it is worth the cost. If it is too expensive to go to Mars with current technology, then our focus should be on improving our technology, not on debating whether or not we should do it regardless of cost.
Exactly so, but I’m not clear on how your point follows? I’m convinced that Mars should be in the waaaay distant future, simple because as you point out the tech isn’t ready.
In fact, barring a huge breakthrough in our understanding of the fundamental rules of physics, I would say that any sort of sustainable mission to a deep gravity well is in the dim future.
Mr. Musk’s reduced rocket costs do move the ball forward, but even so leaving Earth is only part of the expense. There’s landing on Mars, for one thing; there’s in situ sustainability, there’s radiation, long times in space– the list goes on and is better made by others here than by me. Many of these impediments will be very, very expensive to ameliorate.
Add to that going to Mars the ‘NASA way’ and you start to approach those gargantuan budgets.
Personally I feel AIs of human (or perhaps beyond human) mental capability will soon be available and are likely to be the first Mars colonists. I don’t see any reason to be biased toward organic brains, AIs are people too and can make the trip for a small fraction of the cost. The algorithms will be developed by Google et al for terrestrial applications, but right now we don’t have a spacecraft with the computing power of a smartphone. The big need right now is for high performance but low cost computers capable of operating in a high radiation environment.
So true on the issue of smart AIs, but while you’ve been pretty consistent on that point, Daniel, I think you are missing one essential factor.
I’ve told the story here several times of my own young adult adventures in the mountains of Colorado, usually on horseback and propelled by nothing more than the delight of a new vista. And that’s the thing: yes, there’s curiosity about space, and sure, the solar flux density, or whatever, is interesting; but nothing will ever replace the thrill of standing on Europa.
Indeed, and that is why neuroscientist David Eagleman points out in the PBS series “The Brain” that while reason provides us with abiliy, emotions serve the evolutionary purpose of providing us with motivation. He concludes that artificial intelligence will require not just reason but also emotion. The AIs that explore Mars will need the ingenuity to cope with the unexpected, but they must also feel the thrill of discovery. With our rapidly increasing understanding of both human and artificial intelligence, this will certainly be possible.
And a generation of engineers gets kicked with it. If this keeps up, they’ll get the next one too…