Do NASA and Space Commerce Need Each Other?
The inside story of how billionaires are racing to take you to outer space, Washington Post
“For years, many have been waiting for the commercial space industry to become a real market, one where companies actually make money and prosper. William Gerstenmaier, the head of NASA’s human spaceflight division, said he thinks that the industry “is on the crest of another wave.” “There’s a lot of hype,” he said at a Federal Aviation Administration space conference this year, citing other times when industry felt it was on the cusp of revolutionary change. “But will we be able to generate enough demand?” he said. “It can’t just be solely government demand. It has to be augmented by the private sector. .?.?. Will that be enough to push us over or to reach that tipping point that actually enables this industry to become more self-sufficient than it was in the past?”
Dazed and Confused About Space Commerce At NASA, earlier post
“The substance that the companies behind SLS and Orion use to keep people employed is identical to what they would theoretically use to operate ISS and routine crew and cargo transport: money. The money either comes from NASA or it doesn’t but the financial health of these companies is all running on the same fuel. And whatever money NASA does not have to spend on one thing, it supposedly can spend on another. But this is an ecosystem – one that seems to want to expand off-world – where government money, money earned from government recycled back into other areas, and money from outside the NASA/contractor honey pot all gets mixed together. If one thing can feed another and spur interest amongst investors while others derive profit for the risks they took with their own money, well, that’s how actual commerce establishes itself.”
At least for another five years…
NASA has a roll to play but not the roll it is playing now wrt Space Launch System. However, if putting up with SLS is what we have to do to finish off the commercial program… count me in.
This is all so fun to watch.
Bezos gets some credit for having a potentially credible business plan for Blue Origin (suborbital tourist flights) that isn’t just counting on NASA to continue providing funding. Not that there’s anything wrong with government funds, just that it’s certainly useful to have a market outside of government contracts.
NASA has provided exactly what private companies need- a place to stand and a destination. Not a complicated analysis. Indeed in the larger sense this nurturing behavior is just what we expect from our government; it’s analogue, discussed here many times, being mail contracts of the twenties.
But while the platform may be steady the destination is awfully tenuous. Bezos might be thinking of ferrying rich people about, first on his little jaunts, and then perhaps to something orbital (Bigelow?), but it’s Elon who has the real long rang goal: getting folks to sell the house and hand over $500,000.
Now that’s what I’d call a destination.
NASA needs to open up the US segment of the ISS to tourists.
and visiting scientists, perhaps?