Hurricane Matthew Arrives at KSC (Update)
Copernicus Sentinel-3A Temperature Imagery of Hurricane Matthew
NASA KSC Update: Hurricane Matthew Has Passed Offshore From Cape Canaveral
“9:45 a.m. EDT – Hurricane Matthew has now passed offshore from Cape Canaveral and is north of Kennedy Space Center. The wind is starting to decline but remains near tropical storm strength. However, until the wind is consistently below 50 knots a crew cannot be sent outside to begin a more thorough look at KSC. That is expected sometime this afternoon. At this time there is observed to be limited roof damage to KSC facilities, water and electrical utilities services have been disrupted and there is scattered debris. Storm surge has been observed to be relatively minimal, limited to localized portions of the space center. The Damage Assessment and Recovery Team will be brought in for its formal assessment Saturday morning.”
Revised surge flooding prediction for @NASAKennedy https://t.co/87JzEFWR6n #HurricaneMatthew #NASA pic.twitter.com/VI1qhjVuh3
— NASA Watch (@NASAWatch) October 7, 2016
I hope everyone in the area stays safe.
Over here on Florida’s west coast we are expecting some tropical force winds. But over in Miami and north it’s the worst of all worlds as the storm will rakes the most populated parts of the state, the eye wall sliding north with many, many hours of Cat 4 winds.
Those hurricane categories mean something to those of us living in the tropics. Or indeed all of Florida.
Cat 4 is continual straight line winds of 130 MPH or above. And at the same time these surface winds whip up the water, forcing a huge wall of water ashore. It has to be seen to even imagine. Those of us who lived through Andrew have all too vivid memories of what will happen.
The building codes were changed dramatically after Andrew; people bitched about it, but nowadays houses have internal tie-downs, stronger windows, and other improvements. Many retrofitted older homes- we sure did.
We kick around what we would do in case of a direct hit- something which, by the way, we’ve not seen in decades. My house is about a mile from the water and the elevation is at 12- I hear the snickering! – but believe me that 12 feet really matters when a foot of rain or more falls in 24 hours. We are used to heavy rain- 4 or 5 inches- but nothing like these storms dump. We are far enough from the Gulf that the storm surge isn’t an issue.
Before Andrew destroyed Homestead (east coast below Miami), the last storm in my county was Charlie, landing at Port Charlotte and making one hell of a mess. Before that, Wilma tore the hell out of my place, knocking parts of the roof out, removing my ham radio antenna, and downing huge trees.
Since then I built a ‘guest house’ on the property, used for our offices, a building that exceeds codes and has a modicum of safety in the internal bathroom.
So, would we leave? Cat 1 or 2: no. Cat 3? Maybe, depends on lots of factors including the approach direction and forward speed.
Cat 4: That’s what they are facing on the east coast as the storm gains strength over Atlantic waters that are still 85° or higher. Only the idiots remain. Or those who cannot get out: the poor, old, infirm.
As to Miami, Ft. Lauderdale, Melbourne, St. Augustine and north: we are thinking of those folks and hoping for the best as the eye wall rakes the coast.
It is possible it will not be too bad. Right now looking at radar it is moving north or away from Fl. Fl. runs NE-SE. The wind is lowest on the west side. There is a front which should turn it NE. They say it will hook back though. Windmapper.com is a good place to check wind. Nassau, near the center is only showing 50mph. Still NE though, so the center has not passed. All those semis headed away. No place to park. Easy to blow over. Have not seen any planes coming in to McDill, as they usually do though. My ground is saturated here in TBA. I hope not much rain. I always hope for the best and think that the TV weather people give the worst to get viewers.
No offense Saturn13, but the way the pressure in Matthew is currently dropping, once the winds catch up, it could be a Category 4, possibly 5 hurricane, If this thing brushes the coast, or comes within 20 miles or so, it is not going to matter what side of the hurricane you are on.
It is possible that if it continues to strengthen (as it is doing now), then it could be pulled northward. However, the odds are this thing is going to wreck the east coast of Florida. When it recurves around Georgia and North Carolina, those areas are going to get MASSIVE surge.
And to top it all off, if the models are correct, then Florida will get to deal with Matthew again (though weaker) next week when it loops back and comes straight on.
Oh, and i am not an expert and hope with everything that I have that I am wrong. I will gladly take all slings and arrows to be wrong on this.
And Florida is so flat, don’t expect the land to slow the storm down any.
Bahamas sure did not slow it down……
“i am not an expert”
I had to laugh. Everyone is an expert these days in Florida on hurricanes! But truthfully there is so much high-level data available, and the weather patterns in Florida are so well understood, that everyone CAN be an expert.
I should point out that the 3-day hurricane forecasts are very reliable. In this case though the damage will be a better of only 40 miles or so, well within the margin of error.
See? I told you I was no expert. And you laughed…..
And in this case, I am quite pleased to be wrong in what happened.
The eye is near KSC and windmapper says it is blowing 60 MPH. NWS must be way off. I have used windmapper many times and they are always right. The wind they show for my area seems about right.
Don’t forget the forward movement. The actual speed is on the N&S sides. They give the highest + side. So take the speed minus 10 & 10 again to get the the forcast speed at KSC. NWS seems to be way off. I am glad to say. I have been through several 60 MPH and no damage. I have checked before and NWS is usually way off. They do get it right sometimes as with Andrew.
You were absolutely right yesterday and I am quite happy to be the one who was really wrong…..
Windmapper is just a visualization tool to look at NWS observations and model output.
KSC and CCAFS are as ready as they can be. Thoughts and prayers to the men and women who are riding this BMF out.
The wind was significant (peak gusts at Cape Canaveral just over 100mph) but not as high as predicted as the storm was downgraded to Cat 3 and most of the eye remained offshore. The rain was unusually light for such a large storm, I presume that is because we were in the northwest quadrant. I am not aware of any flooding. We lost power for about eight hours and had some downed trees. I would guess that damage at the Center and CCAFS will be less than in some previous hurricanes. It will be interesting to see how well the SpaceX facilities tolerated it.