Firm Commercial Crew Flight Dates Remain Elusive
Technical troubles likely to delay commercial crew flights until 2019, Ars Technica
“Boeing has set a “no earlier than” date of August 2018 for its first crewed test flight, and SpaceX has targeted May 2018. But those dates seem optimistic. Ars spoke to a handful of sources familiar with the commercial crew program this week, and all expressed pessimism about the public timelines the companies have for reaching the launch pad. According to this unofficial analysis, even a single crewed test flight in 2018 by either company now appears unlikely, as teams from both Boeing and SpaceX continue to work through significant technical issues.”
That’s disappointing. I suppose at least one bright side of the more Russian-friendly stance of the current government is that having Soyuz flights will be more certain (assuming the quality control problems plaguing Russia’s space flights don’t creep into the Soyuz production).
Isn’t Ariane 5 supposed to be man-rated? Maybe we could just build a capsule to go on top of that.
The problem with the Protons reportedly involves the second and third stage engines. A quick check shows that those are RD-210, -211 and -212s. An equally quick check shows that the Soyuz launch vehicle doesn’t use them, but the same company (Voronezh) does build some of the engines on the Soyuz. If there were website called Roskosmos Watch, you might find more information there.
I suspect Keithovich would have “disappeared” many years ago, and the site be run by government appointees.
Da
‘Tis moments like this that bring forth, rightfully so, a resonating lament regarding the clipping of our wings in 2011. Perhaps the retirement of Shuttle had to come when it did (or soon after) for myriad reasons, but no one can deny that when it came to pass we lost substantial capability in a multitude of dimensions.
No wings were clipped in 2011. They were clipped many years earlier than that.
We can’t predict…but having Musk on the Trump team is a very hopeful sign.
Maybe, Mr. Sink, but I have an idea that Mr. Musk will take from the new Administration whatever he can get and continue doing his own thing. He’s just feeling out the new vibe, that’s all.
Hi Michael. Musk is the poster boy for alternative energy. I’m hoping that Trump can help him achieve his goals. And supporting the space economy would also be awesome.
That’s a great point. Maybe he will convince Trump that solar energy has more potential than coal.
If so, I hope he is more specific. Solar power may have more potential than coal, but does it have more potential when it comes to things Mr. Trump cares about? A potential for creating jobs in America might convince him more than a potential for clean energy. A possibility of building a solar panel plant in the Applachian coal country (fulfilling his promise to restore that region’s economy, even it isn’t quite the way he said he’d do it) might also interest the President.
According to Musk, Trump plans to pursue both.
Totally agree, he is quite rightly simply looking for how best he can push forward his visions under the new administration, just as he would have done if the new president had been Mrs Clinton. He is shrewd, clever, forward thinking and business minded, I for one think that any president would be well advised to listen to and support his ideas but make no mistake Mr Musk would be very much in charge the government would essentially be going along for the ride.
I agree. Musk is nobody’s fool. He’ll find a way to make what he wants be what the Administration wants as well, regardless of who’s administration it happens to be.
He’s a valuable asset to Trump’s advisory counsel. I think that he and Trump will get a lot out of the relationship.
Not surprising. Under-funding in the early years and NASA risk aversion. Result: schedule slip.
Cheers
I find it disingenuous when “both sides” are to blame for this. It is not an Obama thing or a Trump thing. It is not a Republican thing or a Democrat thing. If anything, it is the need for congressional and senatorial term limits.
Sorry for sounding like a broken record but the Democrat congress never went to war for Commercial Crew. When the Republicans took over they never went to war for Commercial Crew. President Obama never went to war for Commercial Crew. We are only one week into President Trump’s administration and to this point the president has not gone to war for Commercial Crew.
It bugs the hell out of me. Yes I openly admit I am very conservative but I have VERY GOOD friends who are very liberal and we get along great. They work in great offices in both chambers and we all agree, off the record of course, that we never did enough to push the Commercial Crew option. I am actually starting to agree with some of my more liberal colleagues that perhaps it was an error to call it “Commercial”.
The real point is that either by the end of this year or sometime next year we will have Americans flying American vehicles to LEO and ISS. It will happen. How we develop that capability further is TBD. We all must admit that milestones have been slipping for a year now and that the Commercial Crew dollars were not front loaded like President Obama and Administrator Bolden asked for in 2011 and 2012. Administrator Bolden was correct when he said 2017 or 2018 would be the time frame that the “Commercial” capability would be ready.
Dear God Charlie was right.
We are in the Trump Era now. How do we not only influence OMB, OST, and NASA but also congress as conservatives and liberals, Democrats and Republicans. If we continue to divide ourselves NASA will lose more ground.
JMHO
VR
RE327
Maybe it’s time we, the space enthusiasts, went to war for commercial crew. We don’t want to push the schedule too hard, both SpaceX and Boeing are finally making progress, but we need to make sure politicians on both sides of the aisle know:
1. Commercial crew is the only realistic path to recovering US human launch capability, and
2. We don’t care who takes credit for it, even if they have to rewrite history to do so, but commercial crew, commercial cargo, and even commercial payload accommodations are a priority.
3. Politicians who don’t support them now will lose the opportunity to take credit for their inevitable success.
Why support a program that keeps on not delivering, though?
Aren’t these supposedly “commercial” deals where brave industry will step up and compete and fill all the gaps ?
Which program are you thinking about?
Commercial crew, just like most other big ticket aerospace acquisitions. In US, over the last decade and a half
What would need to be done to support CC now, other than assuring an on-orbit marketplace? I admit that I’m not up on the remaining funding- but beyond that it looks like the kids have learned how to ride a bike, no?
Agree with your sentiment about neither party going to war for this. But please recognize that Charlie Bolden was more to blame for this than anyone. Obama’s transition team was locked and loaded for commercial crew before he arrived. But when he got there he sided with the status quo bureaucrats and dug in against it for the first few years. He is the real reason it was underfunded for so long under Obama. Go back and look at his testimony and his unwillingness and inability to support the President’s budget request is obvious. The more Garver fought for it, the less he supported it. Nice that he says he is on board now. But responsibility for the delays lie squarely at his feet.
Eric I agree with your statements about Lori Garver. She has to be the most despised political appointee at NASA in recent memory. She spoke the unpleasant truth that offended the status quo. She angered a lot of people by telling the truth.
History will reflect well upon you Lori.
However, when Charlie Bolden was testifying before the House Committee on Science he specifically told Lamar Smith, the Republicans, the Democrats, and their staffs congress did not listen.
http://spacenews.com/bolden…
This is why we are slipping. I sure do wish those who now reside at 1600 Penn and the 9th floor will quit making decisions based on the military industrial complex and their lobbyists and start putting humans, and America’s Human Space Program, first. With full funding of Commercial Crew back in 2012 we still would have made it.
Instead SLS continues to slip even with its bloated funding and sucked all the air (money) away from anything truly meaningful. I am willing to bet anyone here $100 SLS does not fly before Q1 2019 – any takers?
SLS won the transition team sweepstakes and the beachhead team has its work cut out for it. There are some good people there who know the truth. I just hope they are empowered enough.
You had me at term limits, but turkeys tend not to vote for Christmas.
The new administration is learning the hard way that running a government is hard. No matter how smart you are, and how many smart people you hire, you simply cannot be effective without experience and institutional memory. You make really dumb mistakes because you have no clue that many issues are difficult, complex, and approaching intractable. Incremental change protects us all and in truth is about all that is possible.
Term limits would hand the government to unelected staff (who in large part are already running things, but still). They can’t be unelected or fired and they would run rough shod over the short-time congress critters. And lobbyists? A field day.
/off-topic.
well this was bush fault back then he cancel space shuttles way before obama and and charlie bolden came in they did good job by cleaning up the mess bush made with the space program commercial crew is a good idea Obama came up with it’s the Republican fault for not funding budget for commercial crew that’s why they having delays charlie bolden was right what he said all along i wish NASA TV would bring my space station live 30 min program back i enjoyed watch it everyday from 11 am to 12 pm days M-F