Not at all unusual or troubling but this does signal that they will be subject to the same setbacks as all space programs. Too many in the media, and on this site, were treating them as if they were on par with SpaceX. They will get there, but are probably a decade behind, factoring this and future setbacks and space technology always, always takes longer to develop than billionaires and politicians expect. What does this do for their selection odds on Vulcan?
“many in the media, and on this site, were treating them as if they were on par with SpaceX.”
We just do that to avoid looking so much like SpaceX Fanboys (and Fangirls). 😉
That being said, I think they will do much better than a decade, but for them, development costs aren’t being absorbed by customers…so the end commercial products might have more trouble price competing since they will still have to recoup those costs. SpaceX is going sell-as-you-build, which Blue Origin says they think is the wrong approach.
As soon as they enter the market, the prices might drop again, and more solidly since on that day the oldersters will have long since run out of time and excuses.
Whatever Blue Origins does, Bezos is every bit as smart of a wave-rider as Musk is and will find a way to make it work. If he waits a decade though he’ll be going up against a fellow market disruptor…with maybe monopoly control over the industry. Safe to say Bezos knows that and doesn’t want to go there.
SpaceX reached orbit in September 2008 so they only have 16 months left for that milestone. So a decade gap, give or take, is not as long as it sounds.
Not at all…especially after SpaceX already beat a path by taking a machete to the U.S. Military/ULA/Congress triumvirat. My only worry, as far as Blue Origins is concerned, is that spaceplanes will have time to catch up before Bezos’ creation reaches it’s payback phase. On the other hand, space plane advances would benefit from cheap reusable rockets and could make a great payload for them. 😉
Am I the only one cynical enough to wonder why we heard about this? Blue Origin didn’t have to tweet about a problem with equipment for internal tests. I suspect this is a dig at the SLS program after their little accident. The subtext is that Blue Origin, unlike some other people, have spares for important equipment and loosing something isn’t such a big deal for them.
Not at all unusual or troubling but this does signal that they will be subject to the same setbacks as all space programs. Too many in the media, and on this site, were treating them as if they were on par with SpaceX. They will get there, but are probably a decade behind, factoring this and future setbacks and space technology always, always takes longer to develop than billionaires and politicians expect. What does this do for their selection odds on Vulcan?
“many in the media, and on this site, were treating them as if they were on par with SpaceX.”
We just do that to avoid looking so much like SpaceX Fanboys (and Fangirls). 😉
That being said, I think they will do much better than a decade, but for them, development costs aren’t being absorbed by customers…so the end commercial products might have more trouble price competing since they will still have to recoup those costs. SpaceX is going sell-as-you-build, which Blue Origin says they think is the wrong approach.
As soon as they enter the market, the prices might drop again, and more solidly since on that day the oldersters will have long since run out of time and excuses.
Whatever Blue Origins does, Bezos is every bit as smart of a wave-rider as Musk is and will find a way to make it work. If he waits a decade though he’ll be going up against a fellow market disruptor…with maybe monopoly control over the industry. Safe to say Bezos knows that and doesn’t want to go there.
SpaceX reached orbit in September 2008 so they only have 16 months left for that milestone. So a decade gap, give or take, is not as long as it sounds.
Not at all…especially after SpaceX already beat a path by taking a machete to the U.S. Military/ULA/Congress triumvirat.
My only worry, as far as Blue Origins is concerned, is that spaceplanes will have time to catch up before Bezos’ creation reaches it’s payback phase.
On the other hand, space plane advances would benefit from cheap reusable rockets and could make a great payload for them. 😉
Am I the only one cynical enough to wonder why we heard about this? Blue Origin didn’t have to tweet about a problem with equipment for internal tests. I suspect this is a dig at the SLS program after their little accident. The subtext is that Blue Origin, unlike some other people, have spares for important equipment and loosing something isn’t such a big deal for them.