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Will Terrestrial Politics Soon Have An Offworld Impact? (Update)

By Keith Cowing
NASA Watch
April 12, 2018
Filed under , , ,
Will Terrestrial Politics Soon Have An Offworld Impact? (Update)

Putin Says Space Exploration With U.S. Will Go On Amid Sanctions
“Russia wants to continue international cooperation in space and won’t break off programs with the U.S. in retaliation for its latest economic sanctions, President Vladimir Putin said.”
Putin says Russia will not quit international space cooperation programs, TASS
“”We are not going to upset anything or to quit these programs. We are determined to complete them. We have partners in the exploration of Mars and the Moon – the United States, Canada, Japan, and the European Union,” Putin said during a visit to the Kosmos (Space) pavilion at the VDNKh exhibition center.”
US imposes sanctions against Russian oligarchs and government officials, CNN
“The Trump administration is unleashing additional sanctions against seven Russian oligarchs with ties to President Vladimir Putin along with 12 companies they own or control. The measures announced by the Treasury Department on Friday were also aimed at 17 senior Russian government officials and the state-owned Russian weapons trading company, Rosoboronexport, which has long-standing ties to Syria and its subsidiary, Russian Financial Corporation Bank.”
Russia says it will respond firmly to new US sanctions, CNBC
“Moscow said on Friday it would respond firmly to new U.S. sanctions imposed against Russian businessmen, companies and government officials. Russia’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement that no pressure could make Russian change its course and that the sanctions will only unite Russian society.”
NASA And Boeing May Change Commercial Crew Flight Test Strategy
“The change includes the ability to extend Boeing’s CFT from roughly two weeks to up to six months as well as the training and mission support for a third crew member. Cargo capabilities for the uncrewed and crewed flight tests were also identified.”
Keith’s 6 April note: The U.S. has imposed new sanctions on Russia and Russia is threatening to respond in kind. So far the oligarchs and companies sanctioned by the U.S. have not directly affected Russia’s space activities. But this cannot be expected to remain the case forever since the U.S. will be seeking new pressure points to exploit on RUssia and vice versa – and there are only so many oligarchs and large companies to sanction. As we all know the only way for Americans to reach ISS is on Russian Soyuz flights. That is an obvious choke point that Russia could exploit, should it so desire. There are other things that RUssia could do as well. There are various reasons behind NASA’s interest in transforming Boeing’s CFT into something more than a simple visit to the ISS. Gaining a Soyuz replacement capability sooner is one of them – even if NASA won’t say so.
How long is the ISS going to be able to remain an orbital, Antarctic-like, politics-free zone? On the bright side, the longer it manages to remain apart from terrestrial turmoils, the more space exploration speaks to a loftier way to transcend such ephemeral political threats. But there has to be a breaking point sooner or later. There are contingency plans, to be certain. But given the state of flux that NASA finds itself within – without an Administrator – and in the midst of yet another space policy formulation – while the future of ISS is TBD and commercial crew services are delayed – threats to the future of the ISS could not come at a worse time.
Keith’s 12 April update: And then there’s this additional factor that will inevitably have an impact on US/Russia cooperation in space.

Growing Hints That Russia Might Sanction NASA?, Earlier post
Will U.S. Sanctions On Russia Impact ISS Operations?, Earlier post
How Long Will ISS Remain Isolated From Terrestrial Politics?, Earlier post
Earlier posts on Russia

NASA Watch founder, Explorers Club Fellow, ex-NASA, Away Teams, Journalist, Space & Astrobiology, Lapsed climber.

24 responses to “Will Terrestrial Politics Soon Have An Offworld Impact? (Update)”

  1. Shaw_Bob says:
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    In a sense, the Russians can win by simply allowing business as usual, demonstrating their goodwill to all and unwillingness to engage in tit-for-tat actions. In addition, any such tit-for-tat would actually have little effect, as the US Commercial Crew program is (almost) about to come to pass. So, why throw away the moral high ground?

    • kcowing says:
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      It is becoming obvious that Russia did not expect the reaction from the West and are dealing with economic issues in segments of the economy that dwarf the space sector. As such, why not use the iSS as a bargaining chip?

      • X Malmesbury says:
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        From the Russian point of view, in no particular order

        1) If they pull the plug on American astronauts, they pull the plug (probably on ISS)
        2) They can in theory pull their modules and create their own space station.
        3) It probably can’t be done that easily.
        4) Imagine telling the Big Boss that as a result of 1-3, the Russian space program now has no destination. That would be an Interview Without Coffee. Green tea perhaps….
        5) The money that the Russians get is not big in the overall scheme of things. But it is “clean” dollars – which flow in to important pockets.

    • Paul451 says:
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      So, why throw away the moral high ground?

      It depends on whether they are playing for domestic or international audiences. If the former, then a big part of Putin’s shtick is being “strong”, defending against the decadent westerners trying to make Russia “weak”. So being perceived as letting other (disrespectful) nations “use” Russia’s space program might be something that embarrasses Putin, he may want to show (before time runs out) how much the decadent west is dependent on Russia’s strong space program.

      A tactic that might work without being too destructive to the ISS could be to block European astronauts from flying to ISS, but still allowing NASA astronauts.

  2. ed2291 says:
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    More reasons to encourage Commercial Crew in general and Space X in particular.

    • Winner says:
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      Not sure whey the news came out on Ars Technica that NASA wants Boeing’s first crewed flight to visit the ISS rather than being a demo mission. Perhaps one-upsmanship versus Space X?
      At least we have a bit of a race to get our own capability to orbit more than cargo.

  3. ThomasLMatula says:
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    The Russian program needs the money they are getting from NASA for the Soyuz, they may make noise, but they won’t do anything to interrupt the flow.

    • Michael Spencer says:
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      That was my thought, too; but the money we send them is paltry, in the big picture.

    • kcowing says:
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      Which is probably why nothing has happened thus far but look at the sanctions – they are starting to hit home – hard. ISS cannot be isolated forever.

  4. Not Invented Here says:
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    If I’m not mistaken, Russians cannot operate ISS alone, they need the US side to work just like the US side needs theirs, so unless Russia wants to be left without a station they’ll continue the status quo.

    • kcowing says:
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      Propulsion is still a Russian thing.

      • Richard Malcolm says:
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        The Zvezda Module, of course, handles propulsion and navigation for ISS.

        But before Zvezda came online, these functions were handled by Zarya. And NASA actually owns Zarya – Russia does not. Is Zarya still capable of doing these functions even on a limited bases? If so, it might not be a long-term answer, but could buy time for NASA to come up with a more robust solution for ISS’s remaining lifespan.

        • NArmstrong says:
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          I don’t think NASA ever got the computer code to operate any part of the Russian data system, so while someone in the US might own the FGB (it was actually purchased by Boeing), I wonder if the US could operate it. My guess, NOT. Another brilliant NASA move-I wonder who the project manager was?

    • Donald Barker says:
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      Technically the Russians could undock the Service Module and be fine. The remaining ISS would be in great trouble without a propulsion system as Keith mentioned. Ive been pushing my management to start working on a US propulsion system, similar to the ICM we were working on in 1996. But alas, no company wants to work on something without having had government asking and therefore funding.
      Oh, and this is all independent of the ability to get humans on and off the station.

      • fcrary says:
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        “no company wants to work on something without having had government asking and therefore funding”

        I’ve seen that before, so I’m not surprised. But I think you mean “no major aerospace company.” In other industries, I believe that sort of work is considered anticipating the customer’s needs and getting ahead of the competition.

  5. Jonna31 says:
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    Just as long as we’re all on the same page… these “terrestrial politics” are immeasurably more important than any kind of higher, Utopian ideal of cooperative exploration of space. Utopia, a real better world, won’t be built on a bedrock of denial, turning the other cheek and surrender.

    Russia’s aggression towards the West as a whole, and the United States in particular is a very real thing, that supersedes any and all other ambitions towards cooperation.

    We can talk about their decade long cheating on the INF Treaty.
    We can talk about their invasion of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea.
    We can talk about their flouting of caps under NewSTART
    We can talk about their cyber and information warfare campaigns against Western countries (not just the United States).
    We can talk about their poisoning of dissidents in Western countries. Imagine if Iran had poisoned somebody like Russia did just last month? The coalition of the willing and the bombs would be falling already. It was a terrorist attack, pure and simple.

    There is no point to operating the ISS together, or doing future missions together, if the more important terrestrial politics continue down this path. We, in other words, should NOT be cooperating with our adversary, which according to the Department of Defense, Russia squarely is.

    Does that mean we shut off contact? No not at all. But it does mean that if and when Russia’s behavior and the tit-for-tat eventually spills over into space matters, that there is nothing to lament. We will have arrived there because our countries, hundreds of millions of people, are adversarial in nature, and the “bonus” of joint peaceful exploration of space will have passed.

    And this goes for China as well. It’s crazy in 2018 some people still want NASA and China to cooperate when they’ve made their intentions in Asia-Pacific, and the world, quite clear.

    Really, 2017 and 2018 are the years the entire post-Cold War nonsense belief of making adversarial countries “productive stakeholders” and “partners” died a painful death. China and Russia don’t want what we want and operate within constraints we design. It’s time to stop pretending they do. If that means no Utopian ideal of peaceful join space exploration, too bad. Considering space exploration is not a core feature of any nation, and national and economic security for hundreds of millions of citizens is, it’s a small price to pay.

    Again, just so we’re on the same page.

    • Donald Barker says:
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      Until actual human nature changes, there will never be anything like a Utopia. All our problems stem from 200,000 years of biological evolution, our complex brain’s self awareness and inability to change combined with the technological revolution of the past 60 years. So don’t hold your breath.

  6. mfwright says:
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    Does this mean celebrating Yuri’s Night not politically correct? https://www.flickr.com/phot

    • Michael Spencer says:
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      The Soviet/ Russian contribution to space is just as meaningful, and heroic, as ours. We have STS 51L, and STS 107. They have Soyuz 11, Komorov, Dobrovolsky, and others. We have Apollo 1; they have Bondarenko. There are many more examples that I just can’t Immediately recall.

      One thing I do remember is something Yuri said when he wasnt being watched by handlers:

      The path of a cosmonaut is not an easy, triumphant march to glory. You have to get to know the meaning not just of joy but also of grief…

      Clarke was very clear about this, helping me to my own realization that space is a mankind thing, not a country-thing, at least in the long run.

      So, yea. Yuri Gagarin. Yes, he was used for propaganda. So what? First man in space. Yuri became a tireless spokeman for space until his tragic death.

      • Donald Barker says:
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        “space is a mankind thing, not a country-thing, at least in the long run” and cant you say that about the colonization of all Earth also.

    • Steve Pemberton says:
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      Yuri’s night seems to be accepted as a celebration of human spaceflight achievement. The fact that it also occurs on the anniversary of the first Space Shuttle launch seems to help bring that point home.

      The link that you provided is to a ceremony related to the 50th anniversary of the first human spaceflight. Next year I won’t be surprised if there will be official congratulations from a similar level of Russian officials for the 50th anniversary of the first Moon landing.

  7. Daniel Woodard says:
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    Terrestrial politics has always had an impact. As in the exclusion of China from the ISS, which now seems kind of petty, and maybe not a great idea.

  8. james w barnard says:
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    Whatever goes on, NASA and the FAA and NOAA better streamline the paperwork and get SpaceX to manrate Falcon9/Dragon2’s flying astronauts to the ISS. Not sure what to do about propulsion and control. Be a shame to destroy ISS.

  9. Joe From Houston says:
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    Whoever maintains access to the caboose section controls the end-game.