Smoke And Mirrors: CASIS And Its Imaginary Space Economy
Keith’s note: On page 4 of CASIS FY18 Q2 Quarterly Report for the Period January 1 – March 31, 2018 CASIS says:
“As manager of the International Space Station (ISS) U.S. National Laboratory, CASIS seeks to maximize both utilization of in-orbit resources and downstream value to life on Earth. To support these efforts, CASIS developed a methodology to assess the value creation of the projects in its portfolio. Working with external subject matter experts in an annual meeting, CASIS estimated (as of year-end FY17) the future value of the ISS National Lab portfolio will exceed $900 million in incremental revenue from addressable markets totaling more than $110 billion. Additional parameters indicating positive value to the nation include a time-to-market acceleration of 1-3 years and the development of more than 20 new solution pathways (a measure of innovation that can lead to a major advance in knowledge or new intellectual property). These data are updated annually but included in each quarterly report.”
What does this even mean? Where is the “incremental revenue” being generated? On Earth? In space? Both? What are the “addressable markets”? How does CASIS know that these addressable markets are or will be $110 billion in size? Is CASIS saying that the stuff on the ISS i.e. “the ISS National Lab portfolio” is (or will be) producing revenue – in excess of $900 million? Where is this money coming from and where is it going i.e where is all of the selling happening? What is the time frame – years? Decades? Is this the CASIS portfolio (do they own things?) or is this NASA stuff? Or both? Is any company making a profit on their investment in their research on ISS? If so, then who are these companies? And what are these “solution pathways”?
CASIS is telling NASA in its official quarterly reports that the $15 million a year NASA spends on CASIS is resulting (or will result) in hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue – or potential revenue – on stuff that CASIS is doing – stuff that could be worth $110 billion. Who are the lucky people who are going to be making this windfall? Names please. This certainly sounds great – but does CASIS actually explain any of their methodology – methodology they produced with NASA funding? No. They say that this is all updated annually but it never seems to be disseminated to NASA or to the taxpayers who are footing this party. Why is that? Is this how NASA is going to conduct its vastly expanded commercialization of the ISS in order to pay for its exploration plans – econo-babble and imaginary space markets?
An explanation would ruin it.
They probably get some of their figures from marketing blurbs of the companies they are ‘working’ with. This industry is projected to make X billion over the next ten years, and our market share is Y%, so we stand to make z millions from that.
I think you are right to be very skeptical on these kinds of pronouncements. Does any kind of accounting firm do an analysis on this (as they would of a publicly traded company)? No, imagine my surprise…
“What are the “addressable markets”?”
This is the same kind of magical hypothesizing that all the planetary resources people keep propagandizing. There is a huge “cart before the horse” problem that people just keep sweeping aside in hopes that some magical economy in space will emerge and that provides sufficient justification to forge blindly ahead. ISS is a foothold at the edge of space, barely even counting as a Roman Mile fortress on Hadrian’s wall where local economies sprung up due to continued cycling and eventual settlement of families. Without population growth or immediate creation of a ground needed product, there will be no growth in need, in usage, in economy. And to have population growth, you need greater goals, infrastructure growth, and the start up costs associated with them covered. This has not happened and likely will not.
After years of ISS scientific research has there ever been an identified or designed manufacturing process or part that commerical enterprises have determined there was a worthwhile ROI utilizing near-zero G space?
Speaking of things imaginary, I received an unsolicited e-mail with this “ISS National Lab” logo on it recently, in which there was not a mention of CASIS but from which it clearly came. Someone who was not familiar with this relationship (the vast majority of the public), would have thought it was from NASA. If NASA doesn’t get its act together, they’re going to find themselves in the same boat as the National Park Service, which allowed a contracted concessionaire in Yosemite to trademark to themselves the long-standing names of the facilities they then operated, and thus lost control of its own heritage. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wi…