COVID-19 Cases Soar in Texas, Florida, and California But NASA Status Remains Unchanged
Florida breaks new daily record with 9,585 coronavirus cases, Orlando Sentinel
“The Florida Department of Health reported 9,585 new coronavirus cases Saturday, shattering the previous daily high for positive COVID-19 infections made just the day before. The state has now registered 132,545 positive cases to date. The previous record for a single-day increase of 8,942 cases was reported Friday, followed by 5,508 cases reported Wednesday.”
Texas Gov. Orders Bars To Close, Reduces Restaurant Seating As COVID-19 Cases Surge, NPR
“The rollbacks come amid a statewide surge of new coronavirus infections. On Thursday, the state health department reported 5,996 new cases, the third day in a row of record-high new infections in the state. The rate of positive test results, as of Wednesday, is also approaching 12%. “As I said from the start, if the positivity rate rose above 10%, the state of Texas would take further action to mitigate the spread of COVID-19,” Abbott said.”
L.A. County faces ‘critical moment’ as coronavirus cases keep surging, LA Times
“Another day of big increases in both coronavirus cases and hospitalizations prompted health officials Saturday to warn Los Angeles County is entering a “critical moment” and that some of the easing of stay-at-home orders are in jeopardy unless the trend changes.”
Keith’s 28 June note: Infection rates are soaring in Florida, Texas, and California. Yet KSC, JSC, JPL, ARC, and Armstrong are still at Stage 3 – not stage 4. But other centers (GSFC, WFF, GISS) in states with declining infections surges are at stage 4 according to NASA. There seems to be an inconsistency.
Keith’s 29 June update:
NASA issued this COVID-19 update today which really does not say much of anything other than confirmed cases are increasing and check the NASA website for updates.
June 29 Update on NASA’s Response to Coronavirus
“The recent spike in COVID-19 cases in states where many of us work and live necessitates heightened vigilance and personal responsibility by all NASA employees and contractors.”
At JSC only a few of the more critical positions have been going into work. Everyone else works from home. So far NASA has made the right decisions regardless of others in the city and county opening their doors weeks ago. So far no reason to change the status of most workers.
Yes, it is important for every employer to base their decisions on what works best for their organization. If working from home is going well there is no reason to change it. I live in west Texas but have not changed my habits, still working from home and doing curbside pickup from the local supermarket. The problem, as we used to say in the old days, is so many folks have “ants in their pants” and are not able to stay home to allow those who need to go out to have their social distancing space.
At KSC many are working from home but many others have work that requires “hands on”.
In Florida, it’s mostly confined to certain areas. The area around KSC looks good, just watch out coming to and from Orlando.
https://uploads.disquscdn.c…
Miami and Palm Beach with the crowds hitting the beaches and bars, I can see. But why the large number of cases in sparsely-populated Glades and Hendry counties (the red area between Cape Coral and West Palm Beach) out in the middle of nowhere?
Some of the beach goers may live there.
Glades County is where the Seminole Nation is located. Like many First Nation communities they have been hard hit by the virus, made worst by the lack of health care facilities.
Yes, unfortunately, COVID-19 is hitting areas that are disadvantaged much harder than in areas that are not. This includes inner cities (e.g. POC) as well as First Nation communities.
I’m not sure what the populations are but on 6/26, Glades tested 12 people and 4 were positive with a median age of 35. Hendry tested 106 people and 46 were positive with a median age of 38. I suspect a lot of the cases are from young people frequenting the bars. A good web site for Fla is https://experience.arcgis.c…
Hendry County has such a low population (42,000 people), that its per capita rate (895 cumulative cases of which 870 are active) may stand out. That’s something like three times the per capita rate in Broward County (population 2,000,000).
Is that the raw rate, or the rate per some number of people? Miami and Tampa, after all are the most and third most populous cities in the state (I notice you don’t show Jacksonville, the second most populous).
I think it must be the raw rate. Here’s the rate per 100,000 people from today’s New York Times.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/1…
When you click on the zip code area, it gives the number of cases per zip code which shows more specifically where the hot spots are. I’m not sure what the color is based on but I thought there were red areas in April that are now blue. Also areas are shown in red with fewer cases so the color is likely related to time and population.
Jacksonville wasn’t included because it didn’t have any red spots. Now it does. The link is in a later post where you can see for yourself the latest.
Is anyone surprised?
At some point over the past few months it became painfully obvious that a choice was to be made: economy or health. That’s perhaps the best description, I know.
Some of our leaders gambled. The thought process is plain:
1. Even now so little is actually known about infection rates by age, among other factors
2. We are being economically ravaged.
3. So: sit around, waiting, jobless, while research continues to characterize the disease?
4. Or let people get back to work, which would have the added “benefit” of adding data where it is badly needed?
The WH has taken the worst possible action, which is pretty much ignoring the issue. The slightest. nudge from the president encouraging masks would have a hugely beneficial effect.
And, meanwhile: Where is the outrage? when so many of our neighbors are dying?
We may be witnessing same actions that were done during the 1918 pandemic, except for this go-around we have social media (there was no NACAwatch in those days). Why was 1918 pandemic “forgotten” and never talked about by those who lived through that period, they certainly talked a lot about the Great War. Probably because those people did a lot of things in response to the pandemic they weren’t proud of so they kept it quiet.
More likely it wasn’t that unusual to them as in those days without antibiotics and modern medicine diseases like TB, Typhoid, etc. took a lot of lives. I suspect 80-90 percent of those who died from the 1918 flu would have been saved today. The last pandemic like this was in 1968 when over 100,000 died from the Flu out of a population of only 200 million. We have just gotten too comfortable with modern medicine, and in waiting for Washington to tell us what to do, instead of using common sense.
Agreed on the common sense part. Remember at first they kept saying don’t bother with masks. Not just leave them for the front line people who need them, which I can understand, but the official line for several weeks actually discouraged using masks because they felt it would cause people to become complacent about other safeguards. Some truth to that I suppose but how about just giving people facts instead of trying to manipulate behavior. Meanwhile my 82 year old mother lives in a rural area, I knew I had a new unused N95 shop mask in her garage with my other things and I told her to wear it whenever you have to go out, which she did. About three weeks later they reversed course and started recommending masks or other face coverings.
The N95 is quite effective but two papers comparing the N95 and surgical masks for protection of nurses during a flu epidemic found little difference. IMO either is effective for the public. However some of the uncertified cloth facemasks being sold now do not filter effectively and others have expiration valves, which defeat the whole purpose of protecting others if the wearer is infected.
For medical workers who are directly exposed to airborne virus in high concentrations the N95 is not adequate. i recommend an elastomeric half-face mask with P100 filters, <$20 on Amazon and very durable. OSHA has appropriately temporarily suspended fit testing requirements for health care workers who wish to wear elastomeric masks.
There are also three factors to consider:
1. The anti-science bent of some Americans. I don’t know what sort of anti-science element was at play in 1918, but today’s anti-science contingent is loud and aggressive and is succeeding, at least somewhat, to get it’s message out.
2. The morphing of Covid-19 response and precaution into a political one. It seems as if a significant fraction of Americans see wearing a mask as a political symbol.
3. The internet makes it easy for the above and other bad information to become “facts” in the eyes of many more people.
I heard an medical expert suggest that American’s aren’t committing and won’t commit to doing what it takes to stop the spread of this virus. I don’t know that that is true–it’s an awfully broad generalization–but I do that going to a grocery store, hardware store, or wherever now, it seems comparatively few people are following the most basic precautions.
Sadly, everything seems to be political these ways.?
Americans have also always had issues with authority, scientific or otherwise, so it’s not surprising many aren’t following the advice of medical experts. Instead they want explanations on why they should behave in a particular way. Yes, the Internet has made it easier for fringe groups to network and reinforce their owns views.
The problem is that medical experts are saying one thing, and many Americans are willfully choosing to ignore that and instead listen to people that know nothing about viruses, pandemics, or the novel coronavirus.
So? They don’t listen to the medical experts on smoking, vaping or fast food. No reason to have any expectations this will be any different.
I agree. Yet I don’t think Americans are that different from people in other countries. Leadership makes a difference. Look at the quick action, specific direction and intense motivation of New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern as an example. NZ has had two weeks with zero cases. Even Italy is recovering, but the US is going nowhere. It is inexplicable.
“It is inexplicable.”
Respectfully, Dr. Woodard, it’s not inexplicable, and I think you know that.
I seriously do not want to bring politics into the discussion. But facts:
Comparing the US with NZ is hampered by the comparative sizes. Still: NZ took direct action at the national level; they did it immediately with wide testing, treatment, and follow up.
The US federal government has been asleep at the wheel. When NY was screaming for help they denied responsibility, leaving each step to fend for itself. There’s no national testing. Period.
Meanwhile, the WH, and my Florida governor, can’t pat themselves on the back enough.
In the end we will lose 250,000 Americans.
Speaking of treatments,
1) the widely quoted study saying hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) caused heart problems was withdrawn.
2) a peer-reviewed Henry Ford Hospital System study dropped today; 5 Detroit area hospitals, n=2,541. They report HCQ worked if used early and in their dosing. No heart effects.
Detroit News story, https://tinyurl.com/y7ospb9o
HFHS has another study running to see if HCQ works as a preventive measure.
One reason may be why the 1918-1920 pandemic was called the “Spanish flu.” It did not start in Spain, but that was where it was first widely reported. At the time, the First World War was still going on, and most reporters in Europe and North America were under wartime censorship. Reporting about epidemics in the belligerent countries was not allowed. And, a century ago, the western press paid little attention to diseases in third word countries. Spain was the first European country hit by the pandemic which was not involved in the war, so it was the first country where the pandemic got attention from the western press. Add that to the fact that people were used to hearing about huge numbers of people dying during the War. Compared to the number of soldiers killed on the first day of the Passchendaele offensive, the number of people dying from the flu on a single day probably would not have been shocking.
The “Spanish” flu came in waves, the first starting in the spring of 1918, and “only” killing about 20% more people than an average flu year, and most of those elderly or infirm. It was the second wave, starting in late August, 1918, that killed many more — starting in the northeast US, and spreading cross the county within two months (sound familiar?), as well as places as far apart as Peru, India, and Siberia. It differed from the first wave in that most of the deaths were among young, otherwise healthy people. And that was followed by two more, less deadly waves, which spread mostly abroad but also in a few US cities. In some countries, it didn’t end until 1920.
Thinking this crisis was a binary between the economy and health will happen more so when the right combination of ideology meets incompetence. Take Florida, practically speaking not wanting to payout unemployment insurance even in good times, a system created by politicians overly attentive to people who don’t want to pay taxes. You get the choices you pay for. Take the congressional response, which could as a practical matter have approved COVID control based criteria for subsidies for business rent and utilities, not one time. Again a choice that would be open if reasonable people just poured over some numbers and frankly admitted this would mean a little tax bump up when it’s all over. No drama necessary. Rather we are failing as a society and our government by design, as people vote in government that believes less is more always, regardless of the situation.
In good part this all comes back to US democracy failing, as racism got replaced with a law and order call, then the smaller government code word, really only for anything involving taking care of those in need, often the poorest, those being often minorities. Fast forward decades and the natural outcome of people pulling apart when it comes to funding government, is a government over taken by some pseudo-business ethos, the wealthy having finally convinced everyone they are better off on their own and hating the poor. Throw in a culture that devalues the elderly, no longer contributing by work, and again where we are gives us only the two choice mindset.
We can have lots of choices and gray areas, versus just this or that, economy or health, easily having both if only people could put down for a moment the sense its every person out for themselves, and against anyone who is not like them.
Except “economy or health” was always a false choice. If this country had invested heavily in PPE, masks for everyone, testing, tracking, and isolation, we’d have this under control by now like so many other countries have successfully done.
Instead we spent a crap ton of money on direct payments to taxpayers as well as bail out money for businesses. These were always short term economic measures that did nothing to slow or stop the spread of COVID-19.
In terms of trying to slow the spread, POTUS ignored his scientific advisors and instead turned wearing a mask into yet another culture war issue as part of his attempt to win reelection.
The US put humans on the moon, but we we can’t get everyone to wear a mask out in public. SAD.
We have not hit the tipping point yet. Once hospitals become swamped, as is happening is certain areas in the south, and people are turned away .. then the outrage will blow the lid off. Hopefully the conservative anti science crowd will finally be booted out of washington.
But that’s the thing, isn’t it, Vlad? Where the hell IS the tipping point? I live in deep southwest Florida. Every evening the news drowns on and on about Covid rates.
I wear my mask, and take precautions. But I don’t know a single person who has been sick or knows a sick person. Where are they?
Why am I saying this? I know how the numbers work, infection rates, and the like. But folks around my neighborhood do the same thing I do. They look around, and ask- What virus? And that is why they are not wearing masks.
(Plus, they look dorky as hell).
A big problem is that the symptoms can be mild, and even if they aren’t so mild, they can easily be mistaken for an ordinary flu. (Please note that I’m not saying COVID-19 is just another sort of flu. Just that, in many cases, it can be mistaken for one.)
Honestly, I’m not even sure if I’ve had it. I’m fairly, but not completely, sure I haven’t. But I was sick in mid-January, with something which had many symptoms similar to a moderate case of COVID-19. The date is off and I hadn’t been anywhere for a month (and that was to a conference San Francisco.) So I’m pretty sure whatever I had wasn’t COVID-19. But the symptoms are easily enough mistaken that I’m not 100% certain about that, especially with recent reports that COVID-19 was around earlier than originally thought. That means you might be seeing people who have it in a mild form, and it isn’t obvious because they aren’t in the hospital.
Dorkier than a MAGA tractor hat?
“A surging number of patients requiring treatment for coronavirus is threatening to push Florida hospitals to capacity. With a limited number of beds — especially intensive-care beds — the state’s hospital system is facing a reckoning after years of cost cutting, under staffing and an emphasis on high-profit procedures.
The state began tracking available beds with data self-reported by hospitals. Check the map below to see how each county is handling the growing demand. The data updates every hour.”
Deaths been in solid decline since April .
https://uploads.disquscdn.c…
The other part of this is that SpaceX has extensive facilities in Texas and relies heavily on Florida for launches. How are they being impacted? Musk continues to tweet his skepticism about the dangers and extent of the COVID-19 threat, despite the steady drumbeat of warnings from the experts in this area. Will that lead him to take risks with his operations and staff that have negative consequences for both?
Now that NASA is becoming dependent upon SpaceX for transportation to ISS, that question is no less important than the question of COVID’s impact on NASA facilities.
AFAIK SpaceX and indeed most contractors are continuing operations as scheduled but taking effective precautions, Musk’s comments notwithstanding. For that matter I am not aware of any cases attributed to spread at the Tesla plant in California, so I suspect Tesla is also taking effective precautions. It is not that hard to avoid spreading infection, you just have to avoid getting careless, even for a moment.
KSC is at Stage 3 but launch operations are proceeding normally and the Visitor Center is open; visitors are required to wear masks. IMO most jobs in a workplace such as a NASA center could be performed safely with masks and social distancing. Indeed, most stores and other businesses could have remained open if everyone would follow a few simple precautions. Spread of infection is more likely in bars, restaurants, schools, day care and similar settings where people eat and drink communally, as well as overcrowded jails.
There is no statewide requirement for masks and the majority of the public does not adhere to any precautions. I feel it was a serious mistake for the CDC to initially discourage masks for the public when there was no evidence this was correct. The primary role of masks is to prevent people with infection from spreading it, but since we do not know who is infected, this will only work if everyone wears a mask.
For the public a surgical type mask or N95 without an expiration valve is sufficient. The approval of homemade fabric masks often with expiration valves is not a good idea, and the public IMO should not wear any mask with expiration valves.. For health care workers and others taking care of COVID patients the N95 mask is inadequate. An elastomeric half face respirator with P100 filters is needed. 100% is better than 95%. Not rocket science.
Keith, you forgot Glenn Research Center!