Its Time For More Make Space Great Again Rants
Lucas Warns of Risk Posed by Chinese Launch to the Moon, Rep. Lucas
“The launch of Chang’e-5 is a significant step by China towards their goal of establishing a long-term presence on the Moon. The nation that leads in space will dictate the rules of the road for future technological development and exploration, and the influence of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in the CCP’s space program makes China a particularly irresponsible and dangerous candidate. Advancements by the CCP also jeopardize American international competitiveness in science and technology. We can no longer take America’s leadership in space for granted and must continue supporting the men and women of the American space program aspiring to launch crewed missions to the Moon, Mars, and beyond.”
Keith’s note: And meanwhile back in the U.S. we have the Space Force whose leadership and fanboys have openly talked about sending soldiers into space and to the Moon. They stage military ceremonies and events on the civilian ISS. That certainly doesn’t help to calm things down. As for China becoming more competitive with the U.S. in human and robotic space exploration, OK, they are. If we just got off our collective ass here in the U.S. and devoted the resources needed to deliberately stay ahead of the crowd then everyone else would be in our departure screens as we moved outward into the solar system. Unless, that is, we decide that thoughtful cooperation is better than blunt competition for the sake of competition.
This sort of paranoid rhetoric surfaced back in the 1990s when the notion of bringing the Russians into the space station program first surfaced. Everything the Russians did was evil. They could not be trusted. etc. Two decades later and the ISS is a stellar example of how nations can work together in a cooperative fashion in space. Indeed, the U.S. and Russia get along vastly better in space than they do on Earth. There is a powerful lesson there. If only we’d stop to understand it.
It seems US policy makers are tone deaf about how other countries view intentions (spoken and unspoken) about the Space Force. We could have done long-term presence on the moon, not with Apollo-Saturn hardware but lunar orbiters and rovers but interest went to zero. Nowadays it is much easier than ever before which means many including rich people are doing serious work to go there. I sometimes wonder US has taken interest using SDI (Clementine) resources, LRO (byproduct of VSE), and now VIPER (byproduct of Artemis).
Russia: has a space force. China: has a space force: France: has an air and space force. Israel: has and air and space force. UK: standing up the RAF Space Command. Iran: tested weapons in space. India: tested weapons in space.
We’re hardly upsetting a peaceful world order.
Their space forces were not created in order to sell campaign merchandise. We already had a space force — it’s called the Air Force.
I am convinced that China if it gets to the Moon and establishes a manned base before United States and its allies do they will claim the Moon as “Undisputed Chinese Sovereign Territory.” China has entered its expressionistic imperial Stage where it is aggressively claiming and pressuring all of its neighbor’s for their land and sea. China has 17 neighbors and has border disputes with all of them. Against international law the Chinese established the nine-dash line area (over 250,000 square kilometres) as sovereign territory which covers most of the South China Sea and overlaps with the exclusive economic zone claims of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam. The PRC knows that the Moon is fundamental to establishing a space economy and will aggressively claim it when they can.
OK so .. the USSR and US landed there a half a century earlier. They have precedent over any Chinese claim – but wait various treaties to which China is signatory prevent territorial claims.
Possession is nine points of the law!
And our claim is older than theirs if you are into precedents.
Autocrats have been claiming the moon for centuries.
Claiming 250,000 square kilometers of ocean which can be patrolled and defended with warships is one thing. But how exactly are a few taikonauts driving around in lunar rovers going to enforce thirty-eight million square kilometers of lunar territory?
As Steve Pemberton says – what will the Chinese do if they declare the Moon as theirs? Prevent us from landing? Build a Greater Wall around the Moon? Attack our landers? No.
They may claim a lot of ocean today but International navies sail through it to maintain the Freedom of the Seas.
“If we just got off our collective ass here in the U.S. and devoted the resources needed to deliberately stay ahead of the crowd then everyone else would be in our departure screens as we moved outward into the solar system.” Well said… that’s exactly right. There is no reason why the US cannot sustain a clear lead in all aspects of space exploration and utilisation if they are prepared to invest sufficient resources to their efforts. Space activities have slowed after Apollo 11 because government didn’t see the need to fund it adequately, and saw NASA’s budget as a frequent piggy bank for other things.
Maybe, a strategic shock, such as might happen if Artemis were to be drastically slowed – at the same time as China decided to rapidly accelerate its lunar plans – to beat the US to the Moon – might be all the US needs to open its eyes. But at the same time, a ‘race’ is probably the worst outcome if we want a sustainable presence on and around the Moon.
My money is on the commercial sector getting back there first, before NASA and before the Chinese do.
The Chinese cannot beat the US to the Moon since we went there in 1969.
Artemis needs to be expanded – to include realistic testing that is not currently in the plan. This will slow our landing year but that is a good thing.
We certainly want to avoid approaching this as another “race” since that will encourage us to accept unnecessary risk and will work against making our effort a sustainable one.
[Off topic rant removed ] There is a space race now with China. It’s not unlike the race with the USSR. Those were extremely dangerous decades with so many thermonuclear weapons poised ready to drop down on our cities at any moment. It was important to show who was the leader technologically. Cyberwar and war fighting in space are how a conflict with China would begin. Let’s not pretend they are our friend. Their Moon missions are innocent enough but it’s like the Olympic Games in Berlin. [more off topic arm waving removed]
And Russia is going after the U.S. in every imaginable sector – yet we have had a perfectly peaceful cooperative venture with them in space for 20 years.
Russia is a well-armed gangster. China is a growing, prospering, and innovating army. No comparison.
The ‘peaceful cooperative venture in space’ isn’t stopping them from developing ASAT capabilities to attack US satellites though…
So is Russia. So we should sever our half of the ISS from theirs. Oh wait. We are cooperating peacefully – maybe that is worth maintaining amidst a sea of no-cooperation.
If there is a space race, where are we racing to? What is a “win”?
You are exaggerating, the Chinese are competitors but they are not military peers yet.
It’s Space Force this and Space Force that, and keep your astronauts off the regolith,
But it’ll be, “Where’s the bloody Space Force when the Chinese claim the Moon!” With apologies to Rudyard Kipling!
The American military does NOT want war! Not on Earth, not in space, nowhere! But the deterrence capabilities hopefully keeps everybody’s fingers off the launch keys, lasers and photon torpedoes or whatever.
The Air Force was handling our affairs in space perfectly well before the Trump Space Force campaign talking point was created.
“We came in peace for all mankind”. That plaque is on the surface of the moon right now, and I would hope that the sentiment is still the same 50 years later. Despite the current disputes on earth, let’s keep them on earth.