Buying Rides On Rockets That Don't Exist Yet
NASA Awards Launch Services Contract to Blue Origin for New Glenn Launch Services, NASA
“NASA has awarded a NASA Launch Services (NLS) II contract to Blue Origin and their New Glenn launch service in accordance with the contract’s on-ramp provision. The New Glenn launch service will be available to NASA’s Launch Services Program(LSP) to use for future missions in accordance with the on-ramp provision of NLS II.”
Keith’s note: It is good to see that NASA is including the ever-expanding launch market to accomplish its various missions – even when the rides they buy are on vehicles that have yet to actually fly. Alas, once upon a time, NASA only gave out contracts such as this to companies with rockets that actually existed and had flown a half a dozen times. Now, NASA relies more on other factors to make these awards. Given the huge amounts of money involved and the fact that this rocket is part of what may support the Artemis Program, you’d think that we’d get a peek at the actual rocket. Some some insight into what basis upon which NASA made this decision – as was the case with Falcon 9 and Antares – would also be nice. Just sayin’
At this point Rocket Lab has launched more into Space (and actually reached orbit several times), and more for NASA than Blue Origin has. Yet Blue Origin keeps getting federal contracts etc.
I read a few months ago that Bezos wasn’t happy with the speed of progress and was preparing to clean house. Whatever happened with that?
Maybe he couldn’t find any satisfactory replacement talent.
Although apparently they had a problem with the engine that they finally fixed.
They grabbed the high-profile Lauren Lyons from SpaceX this year (an engineer who appeared frequently on their webcasts). Perhaps that was part of an effort to improve talent. I have to think she was not alone.
Where did you read that Bezos wasn’t happy?
I would like to read it.
Well, Charlie Bolden said in 2014 that SLS was a rocket that was “real NOW”, so it appears that NASA has completely lowered their bar.
At the risk of repeating myself (and others): I told Wilbur and I told Orville and I’m telling you…it (SLS/Orion) and maybe New Glenn…will never get off the ground!
Ares got off the ground once. I would not be surprised to see SLS make the same sort of one-shot appearance in its present limited form before it gets axed. That makes me wonder whether certain contractor payments are dependent on their being at least one launch…
If you’re confused about this announcement considering the state of Blue’s development perhaps you need to familiarize yourself with the terms of the NLS II contract, which are public information
This article is hilarious when it comes to Blue Origin:
Ex-Amazon manager: Jeff Bezos is ‘obsessed’ with this decision-making style—‘it’s his key to success’
High-velocity decision-making
‘Move fast and break things’
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/1…
“Many decisions are reversible, two-way doors.”
Gets me thinking about of those cases while developing a system or a product, and being able to recognize this ain’t the way to do it. It can be difficult to be that person that has to admit the project needs to be abandoned rather than continue to pour effort into something that isn’t ever going to work.
It has reached a tipping point. Something will launch next year (or so). That launch will take all.
Here’s hoping it goes well.
The fact that Blue Origin gets taxpayer dollars despite accomplishing a comparatively limited amount has been an ongoing mystery. Even their involvement in the Lunar Lander program is in itself bizarre. This is not a company known for proven technical acumen or reliable manufacturing. In fact, it’s a company known for nothing besides some modest test flights and landing deals involving the BE-4.
Furthermore the New Glenn is a strange rocket. It’s payload-to-orbits performance is overkill for most commercial applications, and way, way insufficient for the kind of heavy lifting that NASA says it needs. It’s their strange middle ground where it’s far more capable than a Delta IV Heavy, yet far less capable than a Falcon Heavy. It has a diameter advantage. But besides that, it’s basically the answer to a question no one asked.
This just doesn’t make sense as a business. SpaceX is cleaning up in the commercial launch market because the elegant efficiency of the Falcon 9 makes it an extremely effective one-size-fits-all solution for all but the heaviest and lightest payloads. A customer would have to be cut a great deal to not fly SpaceX because of that. At the other end of it, Starship + Super Heavy will dwarf the capability of everything else, SLS included, by the end of the decade. Oh and be fully resuable.
So where does the New Glenn fall? A partially reusable, weirdly placed rocket that arrived a decade late? Again bizarre.
Mostly, it doesn’t matter. Bezos can spend his money in all the quixotic ways he likes and SpaceX will continue to do its own thing and actually fly rockets regularly. But I’m telling you, Blue Origin’s involvement in the National Team for the Artemis Lunar lander makes my skin crawl. They are not proven enough to put people’s lives in their hands, within the next what… six years or so (on paper)?
But it’s not like the other competitors were much better. The SpaceX Starship HLS seems almost egregious in its submission. Yeah, it makes sense as part of a seperate SpaceX lunar enterprise. But if it has to be sent there via Super Heavy, then you might as well do the whole lunar mission architecture with Starship + Super Heavy, and skip Orion, skip the SLS and skip everything not-SpaceX.
And then there is Dynanetics, which has never done anything remotely that sophisticated or risky or ambitious. Also, they’re a comparative small business.
I think eliminating Boeing will eventually be seen as a serious mistake in that endeavor. They have their problems, but unlike Blue Origin, they actually deliver on major programs. Unlike Dyanetics they have the resources to manage an conclude major programs with significant risk. And unlike SpaceX’s submission, their entry was designed to be part of the SLS / Artemis architecture. But sure, let’s people people’s lives in the hands of Blue Origin, a company that hasn’t launch a single paying customer to orbit yet.
Of course, the best approach is to just scrap the entire Artemis money black hole and bank on Starship / Space X / Falcon.