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Commercialization

The Paradigm Shift That NASA Is Not Ready For

By Keith Cowing
NASA Watch
October 26, 2021

Keith’s note: This is going to be a real paradigm shift – and big (old) aerospace is not ready for it – and NASA has no idea whatsoever as to how it should respond.

NASA Watch founder, Explorers Club Fellow, ex-NASA, Away Teams, Journalist, Space & Astrobiology, Lapsed climber.

20 responses to “The Paradigm Shift That NASA Is Not Ready For”

  1. tutiger87 says:
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    NASA who? Management?

    You give short shrift to folks who actually do the work at NASA…

    • Ben Russell-Gough says:
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      In fairness to Keith, no matter how much the people working at NASA want this, their organisation, training and corporate psychology means that they will not be ready and will struggle to keep up with how quickly ‘crewed spaceflight’ as a thing is changing.

      • Todd Austin says:
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        Comments I’ve heard from Kathy Lueders indicate that NASA struggled mightily in the early days of the relationship with SpaceX. The fact that SpaceX has had such significant successes and had Starship chosen as the lunar lander for Armetis indicates, to me, that NASA management gets it. I see the process of learning to work toward mutual benefit with SpaceX as an ongoing thing for NASA. Steadily, they are coming to see the value of this approach. As SpaceX enables the things about which NASA could only just talk in the past, things will get easier. NASA does clearly need to learn how to ride this wave if they don’t want to get swamped by it, but I see serious effort in that direction with the selection of Starship.

  2. Keith MV says:
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    Here’s a thought exercise: NASA and Old Space are rendered practically obsolete, due to price per pound of mass enjoying an immense reduction via SpaceX launch vehicle tech. The US Government sees the hand writing on the wall. Massive investments by US Government in Old Space are lost. SLS is cancelled. Essentially, Kennedy Space Center, Cape Canaveral, and possibly some of Vandenburg is taken over by SpaceX. Boca Chica becomes a major spaceport in it’s own right. Who would think it possible that the US Government, backed by Old Space, and the US military, shuts down SpaceX for political and financial reasons supported by Old Space? Money talks. For reference, if we had a thought exercise related to a global pandemic three years ago wiping out the global economy, would we have all deemed it “silly” or “conspiracy theory”? I hope Elon has a crack security force.

    • Todd Austin says:
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      The price to LEO for boosters made by ULA and others has really nothing to do with NASA. NASA scientists continue to do important and cutting-edge work, regardless of their supplier of launch services. Why do you conflate the two? Nobody is going to shut down SpaceX. It’s silly to the point of laughable to suggest it. They are driving the US forward at a breakneck pace and driving the cost of launch down in ways that the government (including the military) could only dream of until recently. Look at who get the launch contracts now. What general is going to voluntarily shovel away 100s of millions of dollars on pointlessly-overpriced launch services that they could be spending elsewhere? ULA now gets enough contracts to keep them afloat and not one more.

      • Keith MV says:
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        If Uncle Sam makes a decision to take over SpaceX as a matter of national security and political mischief, no general in our military will have any say in the decision.

  3. R.J.Schmitt says:
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    NASA knows exactly how to respond to Starship. The space agency selected SpaceX and Starship as the winners in the recent HLS Option A competition. At $2.89B bid for that contract, Elon made NASA an offer it couldn’t refuse.

    That’s step one in building the space highways that will connect the surface of the Earth to the lunar surface and to the surface of Mars. And step two will be replacing the SLS with Starships to travel those highways for the foreseeable future.

    With Starship NASA has grasped the chance it has so long hoped for, namely, to have an affordable means to establish permanent human presence on the lunar surface and on the surface of Mars.

    Just as the SpaceX Falcon 9 has become NASA’s first choice for both manned and unmanned launches to LEO, Starship will be the choice for lunar and interplanetary missions beyond LEO.

  4. Richard Brezinski says:
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    The other day NASA released a photo of the Assistant Administrator as Chair, the ISS Program Manager and several NASA Managers and it looks like they are doing as they’ve always done to review the status and ensure that the spacecraft and rocket are ready to launch. That is what they’ve always done at Launch Readiness Reviews (LRR).

    They did it nearly 200 times for Shuttle, Saturn and earlier vehicles, all of which NASA ‘owned’ and managed support contractors to prepare and fly.
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    While its commendable that NASA is doublechecking that their astronauts will be safe, somewhere I imagine the real review is being held with Musk as the Chair and his lead engineers. It is their vehicle and they are responsible for it, and virtually everything about it-design, software, programming, launch and operation….

    Its a Space X owned and operated spacecraft and rocket. NASA bought tickets to the show.

    I suspect the NASA managers are trying to keep up appearances.

    • Nick K says:
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      Its is not only the 30 or 50 people in the room, most of whom have probably been paid to fly in from around the country to attend a meeting that most have little role in, NASA continues to bring in hundreds of its managers, workforce, honorees and all at taxpayer expense for a launch that is mostly a non-NASA function. Did they all attend the last Space X launch, a few weeks ago, for the ‘Inspiration 4’? NASA had as much to do with that one, so likely that is the approximate level of attendance that ought to be present.

      • Richard Brezinski says:
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        But everyone loves going to Florida to enjoy the sights for a few days or a week, and especially to see them light the candle. At present rates for rental cars, hotel, food, its probably no more than a few million dollars. Besides in the Covid economy its a public service.

  5. Nick K says:
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    Elon likes Texas, the gateway. Development, test, and launch all from the new space center. Amazing what WE can do when leadership is clear and everyone works together. The question is what to do with NASA? The old NASA has made itself irrelevant.

  6. fC says:
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    SpaceX will never establish anything on Mars ever. Elon Musk is a snake oil salesman.

  7. Bad Horse says:
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    For some working human spaceflight at NA$A (especially leadership) it’s just a job (THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE EVEYONE @ NA$A). Milestones are a way of counting seasons. Failure standards don’t exist, and yes there are five lights. Look at how mucked up Ares I was and know many of the same NA$A people are working SLS (one of the worst offenders is now a NASA AA). That’s why it’s taking 12 years to build a rocket (and a rocket with ZERO new tech). That and someone told Boing and Jacobs what the management reserve is on the project. SLS will fly right before the moneys gone. I hope Musk lands his Starship next to the SLS launch pad. Then takes off for Texas. Know what, I bet he can do it.

    • Vladislaw says:
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      “Look at how mucked up Ares I was and know many of the same NA$A people are working SLS (one of the worst offenders is now a NASA AA). That’s why it’s taking 12 years to build a rocket (and a rocket with ZERO new tech).”

      NASA does what congress funds. NASA personal from the very top down have to be confirmed by congress, and congress only confirms those that will keep their rice bowl filled. The reason starship is faster is because it by passes most of congressional mandates to keep the pork flowing.

  8. Bill Hensley says:
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    When you compare the recent photos of the full SLS stack in the VAB with these images of Starship being built and stacked, it’s not hard to see where some of the cost savings come from. I still marvel when we see a couple of guys using a scissor lift to install a state of the art rocket engine on an open pad a couple of hundred yards from the beach. Man lifts being used to work on a booster that’s 200 feet tall. Contrast that to a comment on another forum yesterday about just the scaffolding in the VAB looking like a “work of art”.