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What Will A Ukraine War Do To The ISS Program?

By Keith Cowing
NASA Watch
January 28, 2022
Filed under , , , ,
What Will A Ukraine War Do To The ISS Program?

Keith’s note: In case you have not noticed the U.S. government says that Russia is about to invade Ukraine. The U.S. is sending weapons and mobilizing troops. NATO is fortifying its borders. Oh yes, this impending conflict actual war would involve nearly every single participating nation in the International Space Station program. Until now the ISS has managed to weather virtually all terrestrial political squabbles between its participants. Indeed, there is an ongoing effort to get the ISS program nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize.
Recently, however, Russia has threatened the safety of the ISS with space weapon tests, an out of control Nauka engine firing flipped the ISS on its side precipitating an emergency declaration, and accusations about a hole that was drilled in a Soyuz in Russia has led to goofy accusations against American astronauts.
So … what happens if/when the bullets start to fly? Will everyone on ISS just focus on their day job? Or will one or more country put ISS operations on their list of things to threaten sanctions over? If indeed war does break out – and the ISS program manages to survive and thrive – then I do not know how anyone could deny the whole Nobel Peace Prize thing. Stay tuned.

NASA Watch founder, Explorers Club Fellow, ex-NASA, Away Teams, Journalist, Space & Astrobiology, Lapsed climber.

13 responses to “What Will A Ukraine War Do To The ISS Program?”

  1. mfwright says:
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    One thing certain, those who will start this war don’t have to fight it, bear the burden, or deal with the consequences.

    • se jones says:
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      Bear the burden?
      Conscription in Russia is a 12-month draft, which is mandatory for all male citizens age 18–27. No-shows under Russian criminal code, is punishable by up to 2 years of imprisonment.

      Deal with the consequences?
      Besides the young men dying, the rich old oligarchs will see their fortunes tied up from American lead sanctions.

      They obviously have to weigh this against the end game.

      • SouthwestExGOP says:
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        In Russia, conscripts do NOT have a vote on conflicts. The young may be in the trenches but they have no say about where those trenches should be.

        • se jones says:
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          “conscripts do NOT have a vote“

          I didn’t say, or imply, that they did.
          Conscripts don’t have a vote? Well you don’t say.

      • Todd Austin says:
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        Not to mention the people who actually live in these places whose lives and homes would be disrupted or destroyed.

      • Terry Stetler says:
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        Don’t forget Russians Wagner Group mercenaries, they’re the ones who largely fought the last Ukraine incursion.

  2. David Fowler says:
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    I’ve been thinking about this a lot lately.

  3. se jones says:
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    The ASAT weapon test was clearly a message from The Russian Aerospace Force (VKS) that THEY are in charge of space operations, NOT the silly, embarrassing fools at Roscosmos.

  4. Bad Horse says:
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    The space program is the most stabilizing thing between Russia and the US/ESA/JAXA/CAS governments. Russians do not want it to be impacted. The Russians can work with us in space and still fight us on the ground. Nothing will impact ISS unless we do it.

  5. rb1957 says:
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    this is, without a doubt, the scariest thing in the news these days.

    Putin has set the stage, and it’ll be very difficult for him to back down.

    The “West” has equally limited options to respond to an invasion of Ukraine.

    Will the ISS carry on “business as usual” if things escalate ? I don’t see how.

    • Todd Austin says:
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      Putin backs down all the time – see Irish fishermen. He pushes are far as he can, but is fundamentally risk averse.

  6. SouthwestExGOP says:
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    The Russians have slyly worked some digs at the US on their side of the ISS hatch – like when they got photos of the Night Wolves motorcycle club patches there. That is a reactionary group that has portrayed the West as enemies of Russia. No European astronaut has brought similar stuff from any controversial European group on ISS (yes I know that the Night Wolves have chapters in Europe and other places).

  7. Todd Austin says:
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    Any statement that Putin is ‘about to invade Ukraine’ is either made to rally political support (US gov’t) or is made in ignorance of the fact that Putin keeps his options open until the last possible moment. Putin himself doesn’t know whether he’ll invade. Western pundits sure as heck don’t know. The best we can do is change his calculus – raise the costs. Rather than wait for an invasion to impose financial sanctions against Putin and his cronies, we should do it right now. We also need to be supplying a steady stream of defensive-only supplies to Ukraine. Putin has to know how bloody his nose would be if he chose to invade. He thought it’d be a walkover after our bumbling withdrawl from Afghanistan and the squabbling of the Trump years. He miscalculated.

    Fundamentally, Putin is risk-averse. He’ll push to see what he can get, but recognizes where the limits are. ISS is an asset to Russia, as well, and he’d be loathe to abandon it. There, he is a full partner. On a Chinese station, he’d be a tenant who would be tolerated as long as he paid the rent on time. Bluster aside, Russia has no realistic hope of having its own station any time soon. Considering the weight that Putin puts on international prestige, maintaining an important presence in space is important to him.

    Edit – To wit, the blinking begins: “The Kremlin said Tuesday that there had been a “mix-up” over its reply to the United States on the Ukraine crisis” https://www.cnn.com/2022/02