A Post-Russia ISS?
Russia could end its role in the International Space Station by 2024, say experts, Live Science
“As a result, Cowing thinks NASA and its other partners will be able to keep the ISS in orbit for almost another decade even if Russia pulls out of the project. And since the start of flights by the Cygnus and Dragon spacecraft NASA and the other partners on the ISS project — the European, Japanese and Canadian space agencies — are no longer reliant on Russia’s Soyuz to carry crew and cargo to the space station, he said. He warned that even if Russia chooses to continue its involvement, it could face international pressure on its activities in space because of its actions in Ukraine. “The problem here is that they’ve gone beyond the pale, and I am not sure anybody will really want to work with them ever again,” Cowing said.”
I seem to remember that Roscosmos were planning to end their participation in the ISS in 2024 anyway. So, basically nothing has changed except that they won’t reconsider?
It is a lot of meaningless posturing from Roscosmos head Rogozin. Russian human space flight only have the ISS as a destination.
There is serious doubts that the Russians can build new modules for their proposed ROSS space station even before the current round of sanctions. Never mind how they are going to funded it.
The Chinese turn down Russian participation with their space station by putting it in an orbit inclination that the Russians couldn’t get to.
So ending ISS participation means all that is left is Soyuz orbital flights of a couple of weeks in orbit. The new Russian Oryol capsule might enter service after 2030 after protracted delays and cost overruns just like the Angara rocket.
Note – With the current sanctions regime against Russia. It is not possible to booked non-Russian tourists for Soyuz flights.
“…not sure anybody will really want to work with them ever again” seems a bit absolutist. It’s perhaps more accurate to say that working with the current regime is problematic. After all, Germany and Japan became our close allies after very horrific acts by their then governments. It’s also important to note that personal relationships remain strong, despite the actions of their current government.
I disagree. It goes far beyond the regime as shown by the strong public support for Putin’s policies, both in polls and andetocally among people with Russian contacts. The “current regime”, in a way, represents what Russia is in its entirety.
If Putin’s horde left Ukraine tomorrow, nobody would believe he wouldn’t be back within the next 5 years. If Putin were to be hit by a meteor tomorrow, he’d be replaced by someone very much like him or worse, and nobody would believe they wouldn’t be back within the next 10 years.
The problem, as Russian experts have made clear, is that Russia is the last continental empire that never broke up. Because of our Western European roots, Westerners think of Empires as conquering far away lands or across bodies of water. The British in India, the French in Algeria, the Spanish and Portuguese in Latin America. But most empires in history have not been that. Empires meant conquering your neighbors, and then conquering the neighbor of your new domain until you ran into a near peer. Rome was that. The Mongols were that. The Caliphate and Ottoman Empires were that. Imperial China was that. Russia has been that for hundreds of years.
The sanctions won’t be lifted until the risk of Russia destabilizing Europe again is near zeroed, and in some way that is going to have to mean the end of the Russian colonial empire that the Fall of the Soviet Union didn’t quite finish. In a way, the USSR and the Russian Federation are reorganizations of one ~300-400 year old Russian Empire.
This likely means the wall will be built higher still, and will last decades. Well after Putin is gone. And his successor too. If Russians are going to want to contribute to Western Science, they are going to have to leave Russia for many, many years to come. And I say “Western Science” purposefully, because between Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s ambitions in Asia-Pacific to create a China-sphere isolated from the West and regionally (and eventually globally) hegemonic, “Global Science” as we’ve known it since 1992 is dead, and it isn’t coming back any time soon.
This is not a good thing. But it is the reality we live in now. So if we want Russian scientific collaborators, we best make the visa process for them and their families very easy, because that is the only way its happening. And before long, China too, because geopolitical risk is now a core part of every US-China, US-Russia interaction.
I think the Russians lose a lot more than the US and free world.
?
As a guy who worked with the Soviets, and then they were Russians, for years – can we work without them? Yes. Should we work without them (under this current aggressive policy they have) – Heck Yes.
We can run the entire ISS without Russia, and their involvement only makes our task more complicated. Even astronauts from the Free World will say that the relationship is good bu they are certainly speaking optimistically.