OIG: NASA's Astronaut Office May Not Have The Right Stuff In The Future
NASA OIG: NASA’s Management Of Its Astronaut Corps, OIG
“… However, the astronaut corps is projected to fall below its targeted size or minimum manifest requirement in fiscal year (FY) 2022 and FY 2023 due to attrition and additional space flight manifest needs. More concerning, the Astronaut Office calculated that the corps size would exactly equal the number of flight manifest seats NASA will need in FY 2022. As a result, the Agency may not have a sufficient number of additional astronauts available for unanticipated attrition and crew reassignments or ground roles such as engaging in program development, staffing Astronaut Office leadership and liaison positions, and serving as spokespeople for the Agency. In light of the expanding space flight opportunities anticipated for the Artemis missions, the corps might be at risk of being misaligned in the future, resulting in disruptive crew reorganizations or mission delays.
… However, astronaut skillset data is not consistently collected, comprehensively organized, or regularly monitored or updated. The Chief and Deputy Chief of the Astronaut Office said they can use various tracking systems, if needed, but given the small number of astronauts in the corps they primarily rely on their own informal knowledge to inform skillset decisions. While this kind of informal decision making has been used to manage ISS missions, it might not be effective as the size of the corps increases, still-evolving Artemis requirements are incorporated into astronaut training, and attempts to track skillsets over time for multiple missions become more complex.
… The Astronaut Office’s personnel databases also lack comprehensive demographic information specific to the astronaut corps. This poses a challenge to assessing whether NASA is meeting Agency and Administration diversity, equity, inclusion, and accessibility objectives.
… As the Agency prepares for crewed Artemis missions, astronaut training needs will change. As with sizing, the current astronaut training framework is primarily aligned to ISS mission requirements. The Astronaut Office is in the process of developing a framework for Artemis training, but this framework has not been formally chartered nor have any Artemis crews been announced. As such, specific mission-focused training for the Artemis II mission–the first crewed Artemis flight–has not yet begun. the Agency could be overestimating the time available to develop and implement the necessary training framework and regimen across key Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (Orion), next-generation spacesuits, Human Landing . Delays in moving beyond the current ISS-focused approach for current and future astronauts increase the risk of delays in developing the necessary training to meet Artemis mission goals.”
It’s no longer Buck Rogers; it’s Bureaucrat Rogers.
NASA can use commerical astronauts (mostly ex-NASA) to fly missions for the US.
I looked at NASA’s launch schedule for the rest of 2022 and there is exactly 1 mission: Crew-4, which has two astronauts onboard. And there are 4 US crew on ISS. They have 44 active astronauts on their homepage, and a class recruiting now.
What is up?
Think of the Astronaut corp as about one third in training for upcoming missions, about one quarter in recovery and debriefing from previous missions and the rest in administrate/management roles plus the Astronauts at the ISS. There isn’t that many persons that can be assigned to new ISS missions without reshuffling persons from the administrate/ management roles.
Newly recruited Astronaut candidates requires about 3 years of training before they can be assigned. While there is a steady attrition of retirements with Astronauts in their 50s or going for better opportunities outside of NASA.
Looking forward NASA needs about 6 to 8 Astronauts assigned to the ISS annually with the current flight assignments with 2 commercial crew vehicles and 2 seat swap Soyuz annually. Which the current number of active Astronauts that can be assigned barely covers,
Never mind the additional Astronaut assignments that will needed to be assigned for the various Artemis missions from the pool of active Astronauts that can be assigned.
It still doesn’t show how it strains the current number of astronauts.
As for Artemis. Well. I’d put the odds on Artemis going forward at 50-50 at best as NASA doesn’t have the budget, especially with ISS being extended to 2030. Even lower odds if there is a successful flight of Starship by SpaceX.
Historically new astronauts have had to wait several years to make their first spaceflight because of so many other astronauts ahead of them. This trend continues in 2022. The two NASA astronauts who are currently in space for the first time are from Group 22 in 2017. As are the two NASA astronauts that will fly for the first time on Crew-4 in April. Meanwhile the two rookie astronauts on Crew-5 in October are from Group 21 way back in 2013.
However the latest group to be hired may not have to wait nearly as long for their first flights because assignments are really starting to add up compared to the lean Soyuz years. 2022 started with four NASA astronauts in space. Three more will launch on Crew-4 in April, with two NASA astronauts assigned as backup CDR and PLT for that mission. Two more NASA astronauts will fly on Crew-5 in September, with two NASA astronauts assigned as backups for that mission as well.
So that’s nine NASA astronauts that are assigned either as primary or backup crew for ISS flights later this year, in addition to the four NASA astronauts who are currently on ISS.
ISS training seems to last about eighteen months now, but I’m not sure so let’s just say two years. Assuming that in 2023 and 2024 nine NASA astronauts will either fly or serve as backups for ISS missions, that’s eighteen astronauts who are either already in training or who will start their training this year. And Artemis 2 training will possibly start this year, which will be three more NASA astronauts and presumably two backups.
So if my estimates are correct, this year there will be 23 NASA astronauts either already in training or starting training for upcoming missions. That’s in addition to the 13 that will either fly this year or serve as backups. That’s 36 NASA astronauts who will be busy with flight assignments this year. And probably at least ten new assignments will be made next year.
Group 23 will start their two and a half year ASCAN training this year, so they won’t be available for assignment to missions until 2024 at the earliest.
But it’s not as bleak as it may appear because most of the backups probably won’t be needed this year and will thus be available for reassignment. And anyone who does fly this year will be available next year for assignment to new missions.