Should NASA Even Be Building A Lunar Lander In The First Place?
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NASA Marshall to Lead Artemis Program’s Human Lunar Lander Development
“NASA recently issued a draft solicitation and requested comments from American companies interested in providing an integrated human landing system – a precursor to the final solicitation targeted for release in the coming months. The agency’s human lunar exploration plans are based on a two-phase approach: the first is focused on speed – landing on the Moon within five years, while the second will establish a sustained human presence on and around the Moon by 2028. The agency will use what we learn on the Moon to prepare for the next giant leap – sending astronauts to Mars.”
NASA Seeks Input from U.S. Industry on Artemis Lander Development, NASA
“The agency’s internal studies point toward a three-stage human landing system, but NASA is also interested in alternative approaches that can accomplish the same long-term goals of global lunar access and a reusable landing system. The three-stage concept includes a transfer element for the journey from the lunar Gateway to low-lunar orbit, a descent element to carry the crew to the surface, and an ascent element to return them to the Gateway. From there, they would board Orion for the 250,000-mile trip back to Earth.”
Keith’s Update: Great. But if NASA was really interested in alternate approaches then why has it already started to award Gateway contracts based on their own architecture? Why throw money at things that might be changed? Unless the interest in changing things is not real. The most efficient thing for NASA to do would be to set basic requirements, then ask for the ideas – first, evaluate them, pick the best ones, and move ahead, But no. NASA is working backward asking people to fix things it has already started to build. Oh and NASA now has to do everything by 2024 instead of 2028. You’d think that with such an accelerated program that there’d be more of an emphasis on clarity of purpose and efficiency in approach. But this is NASA = Never A Simple Answer.
If they do it in house, or sole-source very specific, center-defined contracts, they save time on putting out an AO, giving people a credible amount of time to write proposals, reviewing and selecting them, and getting contracts in place. That’s a good year. Now, whether or not Marshall can make good use of that time is a completely different matter.
They did the first round of payloads for robotic missions in house. The Gateway Minimal Habitation Module was sole-sourced to Northrop Grumman, specifically to save time. It does look like they’re trying to save time by minimizing the contractual delays of the usual procurement process.
NASA is going to spend about $30 billion before 2024 to do this which averages out over $5 b per year. If NASA had said, I am going to issue 4 contracts worth $5 billion each to industry you don’t think 1 team would have made it to the moon? NASA would still have saved over $10 b.
Well, when no other entity has yet demonstrated a statistically safe track record of human spaceflight, of any kind, then yes.
NASA has told SpaceX, quite publicly, that if they can land a Starship on the Moon NASA will work with them,. The Starship Mk-1 & Mk-2 build progress at Boca Chica TX and Cocoa FL shows SpaceX is hell-bent on doing it.
Musk tweeted yesterday final assembly is on the short list, and recent images show what looks like parts for the Super Heavy booster have appeared.
https://twitter.com/elonmus…
Yes. And it appears that Elon Musk will need to shift flight testing to the Cape. The latest hold up at Boca Chica is the FAA delaying permission for the 200 meter flight. It looks like someone at the FAA just realized how big and powerful these rockets are. The most recent version of the Super Heavy, with 35-37 Raptors, is going to have more thrust then the Nova NASA proposed years ago. It will probably be loud enough to start breaking windows on South Padre Island when it launches. He is going to need a bigger launch site for it.
And at least one Starship forward airfoil has arrived at Boca Chica. No doubt more will be going to Cocoa.
https://twitter.com/BocaChi…
Starship Mk-2 moves to KSC in September,
https://youtu.be/A7N8DpB0HeQ
“Stacking fairing & tanks soon, then adding control fins, engines & landing gear”
Landing gear! Freaking landing gear! Like the booster landings, the magic will just never wear off.
The magic in space and aeronautics must never ever be lost.
Case in point: yesterday morning, I was sitting in a hollow tube with some 220 other folks; all told, conjoined with some 38 tons of metal and humanity.
The tarmac was hot, and still, heat radiating back from the tarmac, having been baked over the course of a very long tropical day.
Goosing the engines, all 79,000 pounds fled down the runway, reaching the necessary 180 MPH quite quickly.
This is where the magic happened.
As the end of the runway came into sight, this great beast simply leapt into the air. She was gratefully shorn of unnatural two-dimensional restrictions. She as at last home.
And if that ain’t magic, I don’t know what is.
Good thing Marshall is the lead on the crewed lander and transfer stage. They’ve done so well managing the SLS contract. /s
No, no more than they have building the SLS or Orion. But it will keep they money flowing to the Congress Critter’s districts so it is probably the only way to fund it. It is probably also the main reason it’s split between the two districts with the most political power, although they don’t seem to be interested in sharing the windfall.
I think even if Trump does win in 2020, the additional funding required to sustain the Lunar Gateway and the whole NASA architecture will not be forthcoming. It is just too much to expect an additional $15 – 20B for NASA. It has never happened before, either under George H.W. Bush or George W. Bush (both of whom had viable space visions), so why would we assume it could happen now? (You know the old trope about the definition of insanity is to assume a different result with the same inputs).
Meanwhile, the first un-crewed flight of Orion is 2021? By then SpaceX should be well on their way to demonstrating orbital dominance with their Starship, a fully re-usable system (and thus so much cheaper). The first flight of the SLS should amply demonstrate why it is already obsolete!