GAO: NASA Projects Are Still Over Budget And Behind Schedule
GAO: NASA: Assessments of Major Projects
“The National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) portfolio of major projects in the development stage of the acquisition process continues to experience cost increases and schedule delays. This marks the fifth year in a row that cumulative cost and schedule performance deteriorated (see figure). The cumulative cost growth is currently $9.6 billion, driven by nine projects; however, $7.1 billion of this cost growth stems from two projects–the James Webb Space Telescope and the Space Launch System. These two projects account for about half of the cumulative schedule delays. The portfolio also continues to grow, with more projects expected to reach development in the next year. The majority of projects are managing the effects of the pandemic by using cost and schedule reserves–extra money or time set aside to accommodate unforeseen risks or delays. However, the full effects of COVID-19 are not yet known, and these reserves may be insufficient for several projects.”
It is the SLS and JWST projects – not COVID – that caused the delays and cost overruns. I hope that JWST launches later this year although Legacy Space may again delay it.
The answer is to go with Space X. My hope is that at least Space X gets to keep the two Starship moon shots. They certainly deserve that based on demonstrated performance.
After that I hope the press and congress and even Nelson and Biden take a good long hard look at Space X vs. Legacy Space for the future.
JWST launches on an Ariane 5, the launch vehicle being the ESA contribution. So I don’t think it’s quite “legacy space” in the sense I think you’re using. Whether that specific launcher could be delayed, I have no idea.
I consider the French Araine system legacy space. They had plenty of chances to go reusable, but they refused and are now behind. Preliminary indications are that they are behind and the JWST will be postponed yet again.