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Commercialization

America's Excitement for #LaunchAmerica Is Not Equally Distributed

By Keith Cowing
NASA Watch
May 27, 2020
Filed under

NASA Watch founder, Explorers Club Fellow, ex-NASA, Away Teams, Journalist, Space & Astrobiology, Lapsed climber.

31 responses to “America's Excitement for #LaunchAmerica Is Not Equally Distributed”

  1. Skinny_Lu says:
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    Yep. We are fired up about Crew Dragon launch. Weather is horrible right now. Tornado Warning. Hope it gets better or we ain’t going anywhere. =)

  2. Bob Mahoney says:
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    It’s so cool that such data can be tracked, but what about TV? At least today our TV is on C-SPAN for the most-of-the-day coverage, and the Discovery Channel & Science Channel are simul-casting day-long coverage, too. NG is covering the launch. The news media is also providing coverage.

    I wonder how the two (social & TV) compare and if one or the other sufficiently reflects actual interest. Each I suspect carries some of the data signal.

    Agree that the whole map ought to be dark purple (at least in terms of the interest, not necessarily use of social media…), but…

    • Michael Spencer says:
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      TV? Heck, I was watching My 600 Pound Life, followed by Seven Little Johnstons! God bless TLC!

  3. fcrary says:
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    It would be interesting to see how the audience changed with time. I’m sure some people tuned in as soon as the coverage started (three? hours before the planned launch time.) But I suspect those people are rare exceptions, who follow spaceflight events closely. More people with a less intense interest may have started watching later, and many may have planned to watch starting at T-5 minutes, had the launch gotten that far.

  4. Bill Keksz says:
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    Well… It also happens to be the day on which the US Covid death toll passed 100,000.

    • Jack says:
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      Which is 0.03% of the population.

      • PsiSquared says:
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        And over 5% of those that have been diagnosed with Covid-19.

        • ThomasLMatula says:
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          You are going off topic, but it is important to be accurate about the risks when it comes to this dangerous virus.

          Research by New York has indicated the actual number that carry the virus may be 10 times higher than the number reported.

          https://www.nbcnewyork.com/

          Up to 2.7 Million in New York May Have Been Infected, Antibody Study Finds

          By Jennifer Millman
          Published April 23, 2020
          Updated on April 24, 2020 at 5:27 am

          “Preliminary results from New York’s first coronavirus antibody study show nearly 14 percent tested positive, meaning they had the virus at some point and recovered, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Thursday. That equates to 2.7 million infections statewide — more than 10 times the state’s confirmed cases.

          The study, part of Cuomo’s “aggressive” antibody testing launched earlier this week, is based on 3,000 random samples from 40 locations in 19 counties. While the preliminary data suggests much more widespread infection, it means New York’s mortality rate is much lower than previously thought.”

          This is what makes it so hard to control this virus. Data seems to indicate that not everyone exposed will be suitable to host it (catch it) while over half that do appear to be able to host it never show any symptoms. Of those that do, most don’t feel sick enough to seek treatment. This means that the reported cases are only the tip of the iceberg of a very large number of carriers for it. It is why it is so more difficult to control than the other Corona viruses that have come from bats (SARS, MERS) in that it’s capable of sealth transmission for weeks before health care systems see it.

          In plain words you could very easily have the virus and be giving it to others without ever knowing it.

          And bringing this around to the actual topic, odds are that 10-15% of those who travelled to see the launch, especially those from out of sate, are carriers of it and are silently giving it to others.

          • Michael Spencer says:
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            The ‘open’ nature of scientific collaboration is both the strongest part of research, and an obvious Achilles’ Heel.

            The press has been all over various modeling and predictions. At least in part this is because very little actual evidence is available, there being no real, collective effort to test and follow. To the general public, reciprocating models convincingly demonstrates that scientists don’t know what they are talking about.

            The Federal response is easily explained: on the one hand, there are people in responsible positions with no knowledge of how to put in place the necessary massive efforts. Distribution of $1200 checks, as an instance, was laughably mishandled.

            Over the past 20 years and more we’ve seen a parade of pontificating horse’s asses bashing the role of Federal authority. And now, ‘playing government’ has become real. The antipathy has resulted in so many additional deaths as well as heartless price inflation for medical gear.

            And, of course, those who might have made a difference are expressing little remorse, as they in fact have no knowledge of what they have, by omission, done. It’s Alfred E. Neuman out there playing golf. And why not? You gotta problem, call the ‘Democrat governors’.

          • ThomasLMatula says:
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            And of course that is an illustration of the biggest problem, namely that any attempt at rational discussion about it falls into the mud wallow of partisan politics… President Washington was right on target about the dangers political party based politics poise to a nation.

          • Michael Spencer says:
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            Partisan politics, democracy, capitalism: all have warts, sometimes near-terminal in ferocity; but workable alternatives remain out of reach.

          • ThomasLMatula says:
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            Not as long as people insist on letting emotional arguments replace civilized debate. I just finished recording a lecture to my students on Thomas Malthus and David Ricardo who disagreed on everything when it came to economics but were very close friends throughout it. Indeed, David Ricardo, a successful stock broker even helped Thomas Malthus with his investments giving him the financial freedom to work on writing his books dispute them presenting views contrary to David Ricardo’s. A good role model much needed today.

          • PsiSquared says:
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            You’re absolutely right. My comment was just in response to the ridiculous implication that 100,000 fatalities from Covid-19 in the 16 weeks since the first US death is no big thing because 100,000 is only “0.03% of the population”.

      • tutiger87 says:
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        That stat means nothing at all to folks who have actually lost people who were family and friends. I’ve lost a few.

        • ThomasLMatula says:
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          My condolences to you on the loved ones you lost.? Even one is too many when they are family and friends.

      • fcrary says:
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        That’s really not the point. 100,000 is sort of a magic number. It was pretty obvious that, as soon as the death toll hit that number, it would be at the top of the headlines all over the country. Regardless of the percentages, that’s big news for the media. On a slower news day, the SpaceX launch would have been at the top of the headlines. But with the pandemic hitting a highly visible threshold the launch news was eclipsed. And it doesn’t matter that 100,000 number is artificial; in reality, Wednesday was only a percent or so worse than Tuesday. But crossing that magic threshold made it big news.

        • ThomasLMatula says:
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          Yes, and with China and India on the brink of a border war again there may be other news this weekend.

          https://www.hindustantimes….

          PM Modi’s ‘Doklam team’ back in action to stand up to China in Ladakh

          Updated: May 27, 2020 15:47 IST
          Shishir Gupta
          Hindustan Times, New Delhi

          ““The Chinese have already initiated psychological operations through its mouthpieces to remind India of the 1962 border skirmish in the same area. But this is 2020 and the leader is Narendra Modi,” said a senior cabinet minister.”

          Maybe its time for some space diplomacy by the U.S. inviting both a Chinese Taikonaut and Indian astronaut to fly to the ISS on a Dragon2.

  5. Chad Allen says:
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    I think this speaks to the dumbing-down of Americans and our overall lack of interest in science and technology. In China, science is God. To keep America’s edge in Sci and Tech, we must find ways to get people to care about this stuff.

    • tutiger87 says:
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      No. It speaks more to the lack of outreach, and also how most of America views this launch.

      I have talked to folks and its like ‘That’s nice that we won’t have to pay the Russians anymore. But haven’t we done this before?” Other than the rocket being built ‘privately’, its basically a Gemini flight.

      Second, NASA’s outreach really only reaches kids who were interested in NASA in the first place. Until you get those kids in the inner city to take a keen interest, your outreach isn’t really working.

      • Richard Brezinski says:
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        I have to agree that ‘NASA’s outreach really only reaches kids who were interested in NASA in the first place’. It really only reaches a very small portion of even that limited group. If NASA did it right, they could have short lessons or longer courses for virtually every grade level, that would fit into every school in the country. They could incorporate not only science but math, history and technology. NASA instead tries to engage a handful of kids into ‘contests’ like robotic challenges, cubesat design, etc. Very few kids ever get that engaged. Maybe Elon Musk’s SpaceX should take over NASA education. I suspect he could do a far better job if he recognized the goal was to engage as many of the nation’s youth in space education as possible.

      • Richard Brezinski says:
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        I think most of NASA outreach is not education oriented. It might be better classified as edutainment. If they reach a few hundred thousand people with their music videos I think they consider themselves successful and yet this sort of audience number is of no value at all with respect to a population of 300 milllion+. You really have to wonder how NASA leadership decides on these sorts of efforts. When they do it this way they are simply wasting the taxpayer’s moneys.

  6. Steve Pemberton says:
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    At first I found it sort of hard to understand why the map looks like that, why the seemingly high interest in the launch only in particular states. I get it there is space related activity in Florida, Texas and California. But so is there in Louisiana and Alabama and they don’t look very purply. Okay they launch rockets in Florida and California and they have mission control in Texas, all of which is more noticeable to the public. But is that enough to drive the masses in those states into a fascination with human space flight?

    I grew up in Southern California back when the movie industry there was even more dominant than it is now, but I don’t think that made us more interested into going to the movies than people in other states. Now I live in Atlanta and there has a been a surge in movie related activity here (and not just by Tyler Perry) which has been great for the local economy. But again I would say we are pretty average here when it comes to interest in watching movies.

    What I suspect is really happening is that this is actually reflecting enthusiasm for Tesla and SpaceX (people interested in one tend to be at least partially interested in the other). So how to explain the map? Well I glanced at some sales data for Tesla and it seems to approximate the map pretty well. In other words it’s not really a reflection on enthusiasm for NASA, or even human spaceflight, but on Tesla (and thus also SpaceX).

    Maybe when we see the numbers for the (eventual) Starliner launch it will confirm my theory. I realize Starliner won’t have the advantage of being the first U.S. crewed launch in nearly a decade, but I suspect that if Starliner had been first out of the gate the enthusiasm would have been more muted. And the map may very well have looked more homogeneous. As SpaceX and Boeing take turns launching astronauts to ISS I suspect that the interest in Starliner launches will be less than for Dragon. Anticipating this Boeing may want to think about updating their spacesuits to something more stylish than what they have shown so far. I am saying that only half jokingly. Tesla and SpaceX just seem to have “It”, like what they used to say defined a movie star. Seemingly everything they do is done in a way that is appealing, especially to younger audiences, which I suspect makes up a large percentage of the data reflected on the map.

    • hikingmike says:
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      Yeah really good point about Mississippi and Louisiana. Also I would have thought Colorado would have been darker.

      • fcrary says:
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        Speaking for myself, as a citizen of Colorado, I had another meeting (the presentations of planetary missions concept studies to inform the next Decadal Survey.) It ran until 15 minutes before the planned SpaceX launch time. So I was following the weather without watching the launch coverage. By the time the planetary science meeting was over, the launch had been scrubbed.

        • hikingmike says:
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          I was working at home and had the youtube live feed going on the living room TV, low volume, but set an alarm on my phone so I wouldn’t forget to walk over there at the right time. I’m in IL so slightly darkened my state a bit maybe 🙂 I guess I need to tweet something next time, maybe Saturday morning.

  7. Patrick Judd says:
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    Get back to me after Tom Cruise goes up…

  8. Not Invented Here says:
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    What exactly is the heat map measuring? Is it adjusted for population? If not, then this is just an artifact of the state population. If you check the state population map/list, it matches this heat map very well: https://en.wikipedia.org/wi…, the top 3 states by population is California, Texas and Florida….

    • Michael Spencer says:
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      Yep, that was my initial reaction as well; looks like our host walked into a door on this one…

  9. ThomasLMatula says:
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    Although it is nice to see a lot of public interest in spaceflight it is important to realize that there is little connection to it and NASA budgets. NASA had high budgets in the 1960’s because national leadership believed it was important for global leadership to beat the Soviets to the Moon. After Apollo national leadership simply viewed NASA as part of American soft power projected to the rest of the world during the Cold War. After the Cold War ended NASA was used as a foreign policy tool in an attempt to keep Russian expertise from being transferred to potentially hostile nations. Now that a new Cold War is emerging NASA appears to be seen as needed once again for soft power projection as per the Artemis Accords and Project Artemis. So as long as a significant segment of the population is not opposed to NASA public support for it is really not that relevant. It also shows why space advocate groups have made so little impact on space policy.

  10. sunman42 says:
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    Is the map only of usage of the hashtag #LaunchAmerica? Is a buzzphrase like that dreamed up by someone at NASA Communications (the Organization Formerly Known as PAO)? Is that the only valid way to measure public engagement? How about a heat map for the join of “SpaceX” and “crew?”

  11. Ray Gunn says:
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    I commented back in 2000 that if Al Gore had campaigned in Florida with an aggressive space policy, he would have been president.

    I hope the Biden campaign sees this chart.