How Dennis Tito Plans To Send People to Mars
This Is How Dennis Tito Plans To Send People to Mars, SpaceRef
“If Dennis Tito has his way, two people will leave our planet in January 2018 and make a trip to Mars and back. Tito will be footing much of the bill himself. This mission won’t stop at Mars, but rather, will do a quick flyby. Unlike the spate of space commerce companies that have flashed on and off the news in recent months, this effort has substantial cash behind it – at the onset. Also, unlike these previously announced efforts, this is not being done by a company that needs to eventually return a profit to its investors. Instead, it is being spearheaded by a non-profit organization, the Inspiration Mars Foundation. Tito’s mission will be facilitated by donors – not investors. And no, he will not be part of the crew.”
“Inspiration Mars” to pursue human mission to the Red Planet in 2018, Inspiration Mars Foundation
“Inspiration Mars will be funded primarily through private, charitable donations. The foundation will also seek out government partners that can provide unique expertise, access to infrastructure and other technical assistance as part of a public-private partnership.”
NASA Statement on Inspiration Mars Mission
“It’s a testament to the audacity of America’s commercial aerospace industry and the adventurous spirit of America’s citizen-explorers. NASA will continue discussions with Inspiration Mars to see how the agency might collaborate on mutually-beneficial activities that could complement NASA’s human spaceflight, space technology and Mars exploration plans.”
Video: Inspiration Mars News Conference on 27 February 2013
Now that seems more like it. I was pretty skeptical when I first heard this announcement, but with the new details . . . I’m still skeptical he can pull it off, but not as much. A flyby mission would be much easier and cheaper in terms of the technical issues, and I could see that being possible for private donors to fund. It might even be possible before the end of this decade.
Crew selection is going to be interesting, a man and a woman? NASA Astronauts? Have two people survived for 500 days together like this before? Oooo, this is just like Frank and Dave minus HAL in 2001. I think they have to name the ship Discovery no? I am wondering what Robert Zubrin thinks of this?
The unanswered questions are one of the reasons why this mission is potentially quite valuable to human knowledge. I heard that the ideal crew would be a couple in a committed relationship, a kind of “Mr and Mrs in space”.
Sure, a man and a woman begin their exciting journey to Mars…obviously quite very much in love. Spend 6 months bottled up together in extremely close quarters. They return. One is haggard and confused, the other is deceased, under mysterious circumstances. Just kidding…but don’t say you can’t imagine something like that happening.
I bet Mark Kelly is thinking about it.
Selecting from crew with previous experience almost seems required, but how many have even 6 months experience isolated in micro-g?
James:
Don’t rule out HAL so soon! Maybe they’ll fly Siri!
Geez, lots of commercial fundraising potential there!
“Mars, brought to you by Apple!”
SweET!
tinker
I love it. A risky and daring expedition such as this may prove be a much needed shot in the arm. Maybe this mission will generate re-newed inspiration and enthusiasm in manned human spaceflight. At least someone is “swinging for the fences”.
Paragon needs to start its life support (ECLSS) soak test at least 501 days before the launch.
Andrew:
They not only intend to, but the first full up run will be soon.
tinker
Keith, time to start showing that old NASA “Reach” video again from when the VSE started.
Hate to be a space cynic but this mission ain’t gonna fly. It sucks because this announcement get’s a lot of people riled up before the inevitable huge letdown.
I don’t trust anyone nowadays that says to support their “non-profit” charitable organization or what have you. For you serious space fans/scientists out there I just ask that you really, really look into the probability of this happening before anything else. And think, who will get all this money when this doesn’t happen?
Okay, you’ve posted your “warning” twice. We get your point. Dennis Tito has more money than he can ever spend, I doubt this is some scheme to bilk the supporters of HSF.
Folks:
Shouldn’t that be a “Louise and Clark” mission?
tinker
[Deleted: I thought he said Lois.]
….as long as it doesn’t have a ‘Thelma and Louise’ ending!
Rusty:
Amen to that!
tinker
This can be done in 5 years but certainly risky. The first journeys into the Atlantic and Pacific were as risky or more so. Radiation and life support systems breakdown are the big risks. Water as protection, a small radiation hardened locale inside to huddle in severe conditions. Redundancy for life support. One or more Bigelow inflatables for living quarters but also to carry backup units and repair equipment. Russian Cosmonauts have lived and survived up to 438 days in Mir. Spanish and Portuguese sailors survived months at sea totally ignorant of the World, fearful, malnourished, in the open Ocean on 100 foot ships and survived (half the time). We know enough about sustaining a human in space to undertake a 501 day journey. There will be opportunity for science, not just a quick flyby. Small simple entry-lander probes could be released and even several dispersed around the planet. A Deep Impact-like, but smaller, probe/impactor could study a Martian moon. Even a small orbiter could be released and with aerobraking captured and circularized with help from a small Hall-Effect Ion thruster. They need to add such small inexpensive probes to make the trip worthwhile. There will be value in the manned journey alone but we have plenty of pretty picture from our present vehicles at Mars. This is a great mission idea. Dennis Tito doesn’t look anything like Buck Rogers but he will do. Lets see it happen! I am sorry NASA did not discuss this opportunity openly in public. We took advantage of the great outer planet alignment to complete a Grand Tour with the Voyagers. There is certainly much more at risk with a manned mission but consider the risk we took with Apollo astronauts. We did. Today, NASA ignored, overlooked this great mission idea. Private endeavors are beginning to take the place of NASA but the Agency will continue to have a place for decades to come but we must be bold, cutting edge.
“There will be opportunity for science, not just a quick flyby. Small
simple entry-lander probes could be released and even several dispersed
around the planet. A Deep Impact-like, but smaller, probe/impactor could
study a Martian moon. Even a small orbiter could be released and with
aerobraking captured and circularized with help from a small Hall-Effect
Ion thruster. They need to add such small inexpensive probes to make
the trip worthwhile.”
No way. They’ve already said explicitly that they won’t even have any science sensors, let alone orbiters, landers, etc. to drop off.
They need to focus on keeping the crew alive, period. Anything else is a waste of mass, complexity, and design focus.
Considering private companies have larger amounts of substantial cash than what NASA has (compare Apple, Facebook, and Google reserves to NASA) and that they immediately admit this venture will not make money, now we can argue if it is technically feasible. If they actually build something instead of PPT files, now radiation issues need to be addressed now, and for real.
Ames can use this to promote further development of TPS materials. Return profile of first aerobraking and then 10 days later re-enter to earth. Worden says of TPS development, “If you want to know about leaving earth, go to Marshall. If you want to know about coming back, go to Ames.”
PICAX is said by Space X to be able to withstand an off nominal reentry from Mars. They may be right as NASA’ less capable PICA, was successful on the Stardust heat shield which reentered at 12.9Kps.
Folks:
Game on!
First thoughts on design:
– Standard Dragon capsule with a cupola where the nose fairing would be.
– An extended pressurized trunk with either a hatch in the heat shield or a tunnel connecting the capsule and trunk.
This is doable!
tinker
Too many mods for such a short lead time. All I see is an Apollo/LM style manoeuvre to release the inflatable module from the trunk and dock with it. Power and comms in the rest of the trunk, maybe some of the non-serviceable parts of the ECLSS. A hose running from the capsule through the hatch into the inflatable module for power/life-support, a la the Russians.
Everything else needs to fit in the capsule. 501 days worth of everything. Plus spares.
I too, was a little bit skeptical at first. But now, I am not so much as skeptical that he can put this together and launch a couple… but I am VERY Skeptical that those two will make it back alive, let alone be able to bounce back to full health under earth gravity.
“The core premise of this initial mission concept is to use an upgraded SpaceX Dragon capsule as the habitable volume for the entire mission. . . . rather cramped quarters . . . “The ECLSS was assumed to meet only basic human needs to support metabolic requirements of two 70 kg men, with a nominal metabolic rate of 11.82 MJ/d. Crew comfort is limited to survival needs only. For example, sponge baths are acceptable, with no need for showers … Personal provisions are limited to items such as clothing and hygiene products.” “
Has Tito lost his G-loaded mind?!? There is no fracking way they can stuff 1.4 years of food and water (even if they can recycle 90+%) in a single Dragon capsule – even large as it is in comparison to Apollo. Yet even with the addition of that Bigelow module shown (and it looks a lot smaller than a BA330… it’s almost Genesis-size), they’d still be challenged fit all those non-recyclable provisions into it, assuming they can keep the ECLSS contained inside the Dragon. Also, flying way out to Mars & back means they will need a lot more solar panels then just two Orion “paddles” (although I can hazard a guess that this was just a borrowed and photo-shoped image for some NASA Orion mission)
These two travelers cannot just lie in a minimal moving state for the entire 501 days — even if it is w/o gravity. IIRC, migro-grav medical studies and experiments – from Skylab to Mir to ISS – have already shown deterimental effects to the human body unless they make a concerted effort to hold it at bay by exercising. And those studies resulted from effects of much less than one year. They HAVE to be active, remain active and have room for said activities or suffer likely permanently crippling bone loss (Q: Just wondering, does anyone know, is it possible for bone & muscular loss to go so far as be fatal… especially if they make it back to 1 Eath G??)
BTW, are they likewise going to try to be “Green on Space” and save & store 501 days of human waste for two? There’s a blatant health hazard here, you can’t just use Apollo era bags, because that implies prompt disposal within a week or so to avoid needing to treat them (it’s not just the bacteria, it’s the methane build up. The article already stated that the ECLSS will allow only for barely surviving, so I don’t think they will include a toilet that can treat and store the stuff. Oh, and assuming they can actually achive 90% recycling… what happens with the other 10%?
BTW#2: The article didn’t mention it (or didn’t dare to, I suppose), but as they are planning to fly a man & woman (preferably a couple), they had better make allowances for:
(1) alone time (on-board cameras & mics OFF) for *ahem* personal morale boosting… on a daily basis — I would also assume they would remove any medical monitoring devices (and Tito can forget ordering no “hanky-panky” for the duration), and
(2) have a 501-day supply of prophylactics, or else face the consequences!
(3) Said “Consequences”: Should there be a “prophylactic malfunction”, or the mission planners were just stupid to refuse to provide them, be prepared for the inevitable, in all its worse-possible scenarios: A pregnancy in a long-term high-rad micro-gravity. Even assuming it will survive to be born (let alone be NORMAL), babies are not ECLSS-friendly, nor would those Apollo poop-bags work.
(4) The only other alternative to #2, in order to avoid #3, is to sterilize BOTH members prior to launch.
I got more thoughts, but I’m trying to keep from novel-writing… so maybe later.
Did you not watch the press conference? It’s a capsule AND an inflatable. It’s a middle aged couple, so once a week will be acceptable… 😉
I know this from experience
Sorry, Bennett; I couldn’t get to view the conference.
The support article actually gave their initial concept of only a Dragon, and then later they mentioned adding the Bigelow…
I don’t think that there will be a problem of mating the Dragon to the inflatable; it’s just docking, so long as they can do all the electrical and other hook-ups from inside (given that the occupants will be unable to do EVAs, having dumped the suits to save space & weight).
Oooh, wait, it just occurred to me, while typing this here:
This inflatable may NEED to be larger in size than what is illustrated. That is to say, It is the core-structure of this module that will need to be large enough to sufficiently hold most or all of the 501-day provisions and other logistics that the Dragon can’t carry.
Why not use the volumous space of this module, one may ask? Because, until its space deployment, that generous volume WILL NOT BE THERE!! Because, in order for the module to fit within the launch vehicle’s payload space, it must be DEFLATED (no available space to put anything); it must be fitted within that core area. That tiny smaller-than-Genesis module they’re showing will have maybe enough internal storage space during launch to support maybe a 6-9-month journey if they cram it like a sardine can. And as I’ve grossly mentioned, above, unless they opt for just jettisoning that wastematter – if they can do that with a Dragon, they’ll need places to store that stuff (and out of sight/smell).
Seriously, I would hope Tito’s people will opt to try for two launches, to do this in a realistically survivable manner
Bravo for flying middle-agers! Still same story, and conundrum, albeit to a lesser extent (unless they both – if not already – are “fixed”). Gross Warning!— however, there may still be an issue of free-floating “other” fluids. All I can say is that the ECLSS for this mission will need to be a heck of a lot more sophisicated than the current variety being flown or even developed for the commercial-crew program.
One Final Thought: Assuming the no-frills aspect, I still assume they will make use of the ISS tech for things like shaving and haircuts (given at the end of 501, they’ll otherwise have out-hippied the hippies of the ’60s (pony-tails mandatory).
The inflatable part or the once a week part?
🙂
Re: Birth control
Middle aged couple. Vasectomy. Your hysteria is stupid.
Re: Space/hygiene for faeces.
Dehydration solves both problems. And you are going to want to recover that water. ECLSS has moved on since Apollo’s little baggies.
Water is apparently within reach of under-development ECLSS. Food is gonna be interesting, obviously dehydrated only (purely for preservation, even if space wasn’t an issue.)
They are going to be pushing hard up against every measure, and that seems to be the point of the mission, to push the state of the art as far as it can go, within the budget of a privately funded mission.
Here’s how it works: Tito will raise a good chunk of money for himself and then cancel the project, saying he didn’t raise enough. Then, Tito walks away rich.
If you give him any money, don’t say you weren’t warned.
No, Tito is already rich. If he were stupid enough to do what you are claiming, he wouldn’t walk away at all, he’d be arrested and end up in prison. This is a very highly visible operation, and it will be immediately obvious if it doesn’t do what is claimed. If nothing is done, there are lots of agencies that will investigate and find out where the money went.
Yeah. .
Tito has a BS in Astronautics and Aeronautics and an MS in Engineering Science. According to Wikipedia, the company he founded “relies on the field of quantitative analytics, which uses mathematical tools to analyze market risks — a methodology Tito is credited with helping to develop by applying the same techniques he used to determine a spacecraft’s path at JPL.” And as “a leading provider of investment management, consulting and technology services … Dennis Tito serves an international clientele representing assets of $12.5 trillion.“
This sure doesn’t sound like a man running a scam to me. You’re watching way too much TV.
Press Conference. Good point about the sensitivity of the electronics to radiation as is human tissue. The Voyagers, ISEE-3 (ICE) continue to function, 30+ years in Interplanetary space, because they are functioning on early 70s solid state electronics, monolithic transistors and the like. JUNO to Jupiter has had to confine its avionics to a radiation hard box. There is no time to arrive at Rad-Hard electronics for the Avionics. Triple and Quadruple redundancy will be needed. Space-walking capability will be necessary to ensure anything can be reached to replace or repair.
Folks:
More thoughts on design:
If the second stage goes along for the ride, use it as a counter-weight for a rotating spacecraft. Use multiple cables to connect the spacecraft to the second stage. Slowly rotate the combined spacecraft/stage then slowly winch out the lines. Once they’re locked down, you can spin the whole thing up to ‘flight gravity’. This method could be repeated many times at the expense of a small amount of fuel.
But here’s the deal maker: spin the spacecraft up to Martian gravity!
– It’s a great experiment in physiology, easier on the crew and is a perfect fit for a Mars themed mission! weightlessness? Been there, done that.
– Much easier to design plumbing with any gravity gradient with systems needing to run in micro gravity for short periods only.
– During the cruise phase of the mission, looking outside too much might not be a good idea. Now they’d have a reason not to ;). ‘Stops’ could be scheduled during the flight where rotation can be stopped like for mid-course correction, science or just a photo op.
We need that 1/3rd gravity data at the earliest possible opportunity… and this is it!
OK, Mr. Tito, you wanted audacity? Some bold (yet simple) ideas? Beat that one! (or take it free of charge!;))
tinker
I watched the press conference and have to say that they knocked it out of the park. I had never seen Mr. Tito speak, but man o man does he have backbone or what? Classic moment “Of course I want to beat China to Mars. Don’t YOU want America to beat China to Mars? Who here in this room doesn’t want America to beat China to Mars?”
They had all the bases covered and I’m really really impressed. Enough to donate when the time comes.
Folks:
A quick ‘back of the envelope’ (literally!) of my previous post’s ideas for “Inspiration 1”!
[edit] Add an aerobrake heat shield to the bottom of the extended trunk. Ditch the second stage before aerobraking, it won’t be necessary as a radiation shield (we hope) or counter-weight (again, we hope) any more.
tinker
BTW: Testing the winches & cables idea could easily be tested as a secondary mission by SpaceX. The hardware would be light and simple. This technique could be signed off in a couple of years for a reasonable cost.
Tinker,
Maybe I’m not seeing things right, but on a tether out is down, so the configuration on your envelope looks like you’re going to gravitationally squeeze your passengers into the nose of the Dragon. Or are you spinning only after they’ve taken up permanent residence in an inflatable?
Thruster controls are in the Dragon and the Dragon is “above” once spinning, so: 1) you’ll need ladders/handholds to get into and out of the Dragon from the inflatable, which I’m assuming they’ll need to do on a regular basis, since that’s where the flying smarts are; and 2) the inflatable will have to be fitted out with the non-copula end as a flat floor, which may lose you some volume due to curvature of the end.
Another consideration: Are the life support designers taking the possibility of gravity into account? It will affect the design requirements of their air distribution system, pumps, operating pressures, etc.
You’ve marked a tunnel as optional. Assuming that the collapsed inflatable is attached during integration (a reasonable assumption), then you’ll need that tunnel, connected to a hatch, for certain in order to load cargo and passengers into the Dragon before take-off.
Just some thoughts in passing.
Steve
Steve:
Ditch the inflatable and use a pressurized truck instead. A stretched trunk could provide 2 or 3 deck as you can see in my drawing. Where the inflatable would have been, put a cupola just like the ISS, only lighter. Jettison it with the trunk before re-entry.
To get into the trunk, use a hatch in the heat shield or a tunnel connecting the trunk and Dragon. The tunnel could be jettisoned during launch abort, as well as the cupola (Crew Dragon will jettison the nose cap during launch abort, so not much different). At least they’d have launch abort capability, unlike the Space Shuttle.
But the beauty of this idea of making Inspiration 1 a mini-dumbbell spacecraft is to provide the crew with Martian gravity during most of the flight (for reasons I state above). It’s too good an opportunity not to take… at the mass cost of some block & tackle gear and extra maneuvering fuel.
So, no inflatable. Cupola, Dragon, pressurized trunk, cables & winches and the second stage as counter-weight. Done. Build it!
tinker
OK, then you need a longer tether to get the same AG at your added trunk since it’s not as far from the CoG as the inflatable was. Having the mass of the Dragon extending past the pressurized trunk could cause instability unless they are very solidly joined. I think balance of fuel, oxidizer and water would have to be dynamic throughout the entire flight. Are the Dragon and the added trunk a single pressure vessel or are they separate and air-locked? (There are arguments for both cases.)
After a quick review, I think what you’re proposing makes sense to me, but I can see considerable added mass compared to what they appear to be starting with. If the increased mass and stability can both be accommodated with a single launch, I’d be inclined to go with the added trunk (where you have it) and the inflatable (where they have it, and obviously collapsed during launch). I’d have them both in fixed positions for simplicity, and I’d have them both and the Dragon as three separate pressure vessels with airlocks between them (that can be left open), and of course there’d be three slightly different gravity values. This setup would provide redundant pressurized compartments in case of trouble and would provide the man somewhere to go to get away when he gets himself into trouble with his crew mate (you know we always do).
I suspect that the package that finally takes off for Mars looks quite different from the picture they’re showing now.
Steve:
As Mr. Tito says, “We’re starting now.” So, we’re starting now.
I think it’s possible that Inspiration Mar’s 10 ton spacecraft mass allocation might increase by 2018 technology advancements like SpaceX Raptor. Even so, crew Dragon and pressurized trunk are my choice for simplicity and lowest over-all mass. I’m beginning to lean toward a tunnel over heat-shield hatch after a little thought.
The tunnel could act as your third pressure vessel, double as an emergency airlock and to simply avoid unnecessary crew worry about having a hatch in the heat shield :). Having an outrigger tunnel sticking out like I propose is only a nuisance for the first two minutes after launch and it could easily be jettisoned in milliseconds during a launch abort.
The solar panels would have to be on swing arms (not shown on my drawing, I just thought of it) so that they can ‘hang’ outward from the center of rotation during the rotation phases of the flight. The solar panels should also be retractable so that they can be berthed before the aerobraking maneuver when they come home. Since they will ditch the second stage before aerobraking, the final leg will be in microgravity but the solar panels could still be redeployed for the final coast before splashdown.
As I mentioned before, the aerobraking heat shield should be on the bottom of the extended pressurized trunk. Keeping the trunk for the final leg after aerobraking means they can keep the solar panels and ‘all the comforts of home’ until the final hours of the mission (again, a crew morale measure :)).
So, there you have it. A nice, simple mission profile. Few ‘separation events’ (except in an emergency during launch), Three fixed solid compartments bolted together on the ground and separated hours before splashdown if all goes well. A Cupola (even if it is at the ‘bottom’ of the stack during the rotating phases of the flight). It’ll be great during the flyby when this ship would be reconnected and not rotating. The pressurized trunk could provide 2 or 3 decks (real decks during the rotating phases) depending on how long they can stretch it. Each deck would be 12 feet in diameter (or larger). Even a 12 foot diameter deck is a lot of room to play with for a good designer. Three decks (2 for living, 1 for storage and ships systems would be plenty of living space with the Dragon being used for observations (through the Cupola) and navigation operations. The tunnel could double as an entrance to the stack before launch and as an emergency airlock (that you hope you never have to use but it’s there if need be).
Have I missed anything? Oh well, it’s a start anyway and times a wastin’!
tinker
I like it.
Next, solar panels and radio antennas — are they tracking the Sun and the Earth or do we have to change spacecraft attitude to aim them? Each has it’s risks. What sort of deployment mechanism do we use for them? (We only get one shot at this.)
Electrical power; what are we using for a source? If nuclear, where does it get mounted that’s far enough away from the crew but not throwing away our CoG? If fuel cells, then hydrogen or hydrogen/oxygen? I think tanks for the fuel cells will have to be split and crossfed to maintain CoG considering the amount we’d need for 501 days. How many power systems do we want? (At least 2, and more than 1 kind.)
This brings us to cryo storage. I haven’t had a chance to listen to the whole press conference. Did they talk about if they’re using cryo and how they’re going to handle leakage, boil-off?
Man, there’s no end to the questions, is there? Back to you.
Steve:
No cryo storage necessary. hypergolic propellents like Dragon already uses. Enough reserves for mid course correction. Anything left over can be used to kill velocity at the end of the mission. Once they are on their way to Mars, their trajectory only needs tweaking all the way to Mars and back home to Earth. That Mars injection burn had better be on time and had better be accurate. No second chances there.
Pass that hurtle though and the rest of the trip is simply a matter of time and resources in a mostly static ship.
I’d stick with solar power for simplicity, low mass, very few moving parts and they’re massively redundant.
My twist of making it a rotating spacecraft adds some complexity but the net gain of having the crew spend most of their flight in 1/3rd gravity is far to good an opportunity to pass up. Doing the mission this way would help answer a big question: Is Martian gravity enough of a gradient for humans to live indefinitely (or at least long term) in space or (obviously) on the surface of Mars.
It would certainly be a nice question to have a inkling of an answer by the time the crew got back. You know “We exercised a lot, lived most of our mission in 1/3rd G and we’re in pretty good shape” would be a very inspiring (and motivating) answer to bring back.
tinker
Tinker
Your creative practical commonsense ideas are the most inspirational thing I read on the internet.
🙂
It can be done and if there is the will and the money it will be done. And the whole world will watch!
Wow, this is fantastic! It’s doable for well under a billion dollars, and Tito both has the money to fund most of it himself and is indicating the resolve to do so.
Exciting as this is for me, there is a possible long term downside if the mission is successful. While this would generate a lot of short term excitement about Mars, if years later, a government(s) / organisation want to actually start a manned Mars programme including landings, it will be very easy for cynics to say, “we’ve pretty much been there already”. It might not seem so exciting to the public & backers compared to if we’d never even seen it up close. Or it could simply delay the day when public appetite is strong enough again. I don’t know if the net result would be an increased or decreased public appetite for a more extensive programme later, but I’m just putting that consideration out there.
It’s slightly disappointing that the craft would have to swing past the night-time side of Mars, with only a half crescent view either side of the flyby. I hope they would time it so some major landmarks are seen like Olympus Mons or Mariner Trench. Maybe it could be timed for a closeish view of the moon on the way there or back!
Greg:
Bring a big spotlight or laser to illuminate some of the surface as they go by. Good for morale!
tinker
Bring a big spotlight or laser to illuminate some of the surface as they go by.
Don’t be ridiculous.
They should just set off a few surplus nukes as they swing by.
Good move. Way to go to p*** off the Great Galactic Ghoul…
I’m a fervent space advocate. I’ve liked space since I was 7. I work for a space company. I’ve been president of space clubs. I have astronaut friends. I’ve even worked and respect several of the authors of the paper. Really, I’d love to see this work! But it makes no sense…
– You have five years to accomplish this, can’t even have the usual 2 year Mars mission slip to the next opportunity
– NONE of the hardware required has actually flown in the needed configuration. Maybe they’ll use an EELV or F9, maybe a Bigelow Genesis, maybe… That is a lot of development. Even Elon has taken more than 5 years to be where SpaceX is at now.
– There is no financial benefit (they admit this) so you’re left to raise a significant amount of money purely from donations. Yes Mr. Tito is quite rich, yes he knows many rich people; nonetheless raising $1-2B is non-trivial, especially in 5 years, especially in this economy, especially with a lot of other worthwhile causes competing.
– Others have already discussed the multitude of technical and health risks. All of them may have solutions, but that only adds cost/schedule. Sure 0g for 500 days may not be a problem… if you have the appropriate facilities and room to exercise! The previous record was on a very spacious and well equipped MIR.
– Early Atlantic and Pacific explorers embarked on missions that may even have been riskier but… 1) they were never away from land for 2 years, 2) they had larger crews and thus could afford fatalities, 3) They either HOPED TO GET RICH, or being on a ship was their only livelihood
– The financial return for this mission, as Tito admits, is 0. The science return will be minimal. Even human related research is bound to be very limited with only two subjects, on a one-off mission, and no significant medical/science equipment.
– Someone mentioned Lewis and Clark. Their primary mission was to map and explore. Neither of these activities will be accomplished by this mission; Mars has been thoroughly mapped and explored. The secondary mission of L&C was scientific and economic – understand the newly acquired regions and determine potential resources (i.e. future return). Again, neither of these will be accomplished by this mission.
– I see a Twitt from June Scobee Rodgers “Without risk there is no discovery”. I could not agree with her more. However, this mission is all risk and no discovery.
– The stated goal of Inspiration Mars is to inspire…. That means that starting today with the announcement they better have interesting and continuous social presence. Walk us through every step of the design process (in as much as ITAR will allow). Show us the trades, the discussions, the compromises – in short how real engineering is carried out. Demonstrate how STEM is helping accomplish the goal. This cannot wait until the mission starts. And even after the mission starts it will be a challenge. 250 days each way will be BORING. If not properly done the “inspiration” will be 4-5 days of heavy news coverage during closest approach and that is it. Right now their web page is not very inspirational.
Spaceman,
There’s one small point that I think we should clarify. You’ve made a statement, and others have made similar statements, that imply that this flight, assuming it goes off, will make no money. That is almost certainly not the case. Unless these guys are extremely incompetent business people, It is likely to earn all kinds of money, just nowhere near as much money as it’s going to cost. They will certainly generate significant income, which will help cover their costs, but they won’t realize a profit, which is not unusual for a non-profit organization.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the amount of money they do earn becomes an incentive for other people to consider and perform other “programs” of types that would never have been considered in the past. And with a space “program” having been shown as a winner, we may well get other, less ambitious, space programs done by private outfits in the future. No matter how you slice it, Tito’s grand mission is going to bring “space” into the living rooms of more people than anything since Apollo 11, even way more than the Shuttles did. Think of this as Survivor without the soap opera reality BS. And in that scenario there’s all kinds of opportunities for making money, at the time and down the road.
Steve,I agree with you, they will have some amount of revenue. I’m not optimistic that it will be that much. I expect it will be primarily in the form of media rights, merchandising, and product placement/advertisement. Though they may be able to get some science or tech demo money. The biggest challenge is that while the idea of being the first mission to Maras is extremely exciting, the actual execution of the mission will be very boring (by design!). How many people would watch Survivor without the soap opera BS? That is a very good question.
As a way to frame potential revenue – I believe total spent on Super Bowl adds was around $250M. NBC paid $1.2B for the rights to the 2012 olympics. So conceivably, Inspiration Mars could raise a significant portion of their cost.
It is a challenge, that unlike all of the other recently announced New Space type missions, this one does not have a return for investors. Time will tell whether they are able to raise a significant amount of money. As I stated in my original post, they better start making it inspirational today. The inspiration cannot simply be in flying by Mars — but the entire process of getting there.
I wish them all the best. I hope they succeed, but I give them very low odds
I agree.
You’re right Spaceman, it makes no sense and there’s not enough time to meet the first launch window in 2018. Of course, they’ll use the 2031 LW as their backup plan wink wink.
While Mr. Tito doesn’t claim any planned for, financial return how can you say there wouldn’t be? First off the fact that the launcher and crew/command module will enjoy a significant “customer confidence” boost goes without saying. Secondly, the fact that the mission proceeds proves the viability of CIS-Lunar activity for businesses to invest further in. Thirdly I’m sure there will be a small stable of experiments for the crew to perform during various stages of the flight.
As a space advocate and one who grew up watching the U.S. walk on the Moon and then self relegate ourselves to taking laps in LEO it saddens me that we have become so risk adverse. Everything has to have a guarantee; guarantee no one gets hurt/killed, guarantee that this will perform (xyz) in 2 days or no more $$$$$, guarantee that this will cure cancer and deliver cuddly puppies too all.
Mankind is an exploritory being; we must see what is over the next ridge, we must find out what awaits us around the next bend, WE MUST EXPLORE!
Your not going so therefore it is only an opinion. Yes its risky however people will get interested once its underway, they will turn their heads to the heavens in wonder. And if that is all that happens that will be more than enough.
Unless anyone around here has developed a Mars mission, everyone is posting “only an opinion”. Some more educated than others (both supporting and doubting). I would love to agree with you about people “turning their heads to the heaven in wonder”. I just don’t see that hapenning. This mission will get attention – no doubt – it already got a fair amount! I think that as the mission plays out (provided they can even get to the launch date which I simply don’t believe) we will see that it is not that exciting/inspirational a mission. I hope to be proven wrong!
The Inspiration Mars proposal is at a minimum both an audacious and auspicious invitation into a game of intellectual and engineering “stone soup”. We are coming to know all too well that the challenges that would face a crewed mission to Mars are myriad and manifold. The Inspiration Mars proposal dares us to suspend disbelief and engage in the question of given a commitment to a Mars fly-by mission — What would it take to make it possible? What would it take to make it safe? What would it take to actually make it happen? Mr. Tito is be commended for both daring to ask the questions and lending his efforts/resources to breath life into such a mission.
Gary,
Don’t you think that the reference to engineering “stone soup” perhaps understates the accomplishments of SpaceX and Bigelow, seeing as their hardware appears to make up the space vehicle we’ve been shown? The worth of that hardware is independent of this flight and presumably they will each be making any requested modifications to their own products, and will likely do so only in ways that comply with their own standards. I don’t think we should judge the screwdriver by the guy twisting on the end of it.
The work of SpaceX, Bigelow, Paragon, et.al. is quite real and my words were in no way intended as a deminishment of what they have done and/or propose to do. However, in the context of making such a mission viable their work is just some of the many elements that would have to come together for this mission to come to fruition. The concept of the mission in and of itself does not make it real. The suspension of disbelief necessary to even consider the questions involved faces substantial headwinds at best. However, the concept of the mission, as was the idea of soup represented by the stone in the parable, could be the impetus of many actions including those of Mr. Tito that come together to make it real. I wish them the best of luck in their endevours and trust that they will invest in the space systems engineering necessary to not need it.
Folks:
Several firsts on this flight profile. Furthest from Earth, furthest from the Sun and closest to the Sun! During the first few months the spacecraft will actually cruise inside of Earths orbit from the Sun.
Oh, and, maybe not the first couple in space, but the first one without a government’s ‘policy’ tying them down (and all that that implies ;)).
tinker
First crewed free return trajectory around a planet (as opposed to a moon, with apologies to DW).
First planetary mission with no science instruments?
Errr, have a look at the last few months. It clips Venus’ orbit.
Paul:
Missed that. Cool! Almost an inner system tour!
tinker
Oh, and, maybe not the first couple in space, but the first one without a government’s ‘policy’ tying them down (and all that that implies ;)).
Sounds like they will become founding members of the 100 Million Miles High Club.
If you know what I mean. Wink, wink. Nudge, nudge.
Gonzo:
Still not a hint of whether the 100 mile club has any members but if this mission goes ahead you can bet folks will start talkin’. 😉 😉 <| <|
tinker
I bet Suni Williams and Hubby could handle this.
Did I hear them wrong or did they say a Canadian company was being looked at for the inflatable module? Anyone have any info on that company?
They’re the people who built Genesis-I and -II for Bigelow Aerospace. I think that they’re called ‘Thin Red Line’.
uh… whoever thought that name sounded like a good one for a company making habitable space vehicles needs to hire a new PR agent.
How about “Criticality One Spaceship Co.”?
500 days in a large bath tub with the ability to occasionally stretch out in a phone booth and get away from the other guy. It sounds like a recipe for madness.
Pure madness.
Pure madness.
That’s the best kind.
The baseline in the IEEE paper is a striking illustration of how far we are from a plausible mission profile with some (any) reason for people on board. Good grief, it makes NASA’s indifferent “rendezvous with boulder-sized NEO” sound almost sane by comparison. At best it’s an appalling baseline for clever people to improve. Maybe the odds will be so unfavorable that one might as well just send the couple one-way to Mars, and call game over. If this goes at all I bet it’ll end up as dual Falcon Heavy launches, crew + Bigelow + logistics docking in LEO. But how can you do the TMI burn with a floppy mass balanced on your nose?
It’s neither floppy nor very large before it’s inflated. I would think it will be launched uninflated.
I have serious advice for people like yourself who are writing this off right at the outset before all the facts are known — don’t go.
Steve,
I’m not writing it off, just hoping that the funds they sweep up from space fans end up doing something useful like advancing the schedule for a BA-330 that could go somewhere useful and be cycled into more rational missions. They also mentioned a rigid habitat which could contain payload during the TMI, not the case w/ a Bigelow as you note.
Inflatable modules aren’t floppy. The hold 1 ton of atmosphere per square metre of surface area. The skin is as hard as concrete when inflated.
Actually it’s 10 metric tons per square meter if inflated to sea-level pressure as in their IEEE paper. But it would have to be a custom, heavier/reinforced Bigelow to handle the axial load of TMI thrust when inflated. The BA-330 is already too massive for a single FH, and the BEAM module for ISS would be too tiny to be of much use and would require LEO stocking after a dock before TMI.
But whatever. If this develops momentum there are options between this absurd baseline stunt and reality, just depends on how many $ they sweep up and what the experts can develop and test over the next 18 months before it’s all locked down.
Steve, I will take you kind advice. Looking at a large star-free black disk for a few hours is not on my (accelerated) bucket list. The analogy with Apollo 8 fails because that crew went into orbit. The analogy with polar exploration is more accurate: inappropriate technology not up the the task (i.e. ponies and tractors dragging ice sledges. What is the space-faring analog of Norwegians on skis?)
The audacious mission would be to land the couple on Mars in a Red Dragon, perhaps something other countries might contemplate with a sacrificial military crew and Tito’s baseline hardware.
“floppy mass”
You are one of… those… people that thinks inflatable modules will pop up like baloon when hit by micrometeorite, eh?
Sorry, no I’m not. I really like Bigelow and wish it would fly soon. However, in this application it appears to be useful only if it can be thrust out of LEO while inflated and fully stocked. Can they modify one to do that within the tight mass budget and with enough useful volume? Stay tuned.
You are assuming that the ship is assembled and stocked in LEO. This is a single direct TMI launch. It never goes in to planetary orbit. Not Earth, nor Mars. The hab wouldn’t be inflated until after launch, which means after TMI burn.
You’re picturing a completely different mission profile.
I’m trying to envision a profile that might have a chance of working. In their scenario the “hab” has whatever they can move into it from the Dragon interior (not trunk, which carries only the hab) after TMI. Unfortunately the mass doesn’t seem to work out, oh well.
Since this is not NASA or DOD, I wonder if the launch vehicle and spacecraft will be plastered with sponsor decals like a race car. Assuming that the spacecraft — and maybe the LV (come on SpaceX!) — may end up in a museum, those decals could bring in a lot of money for IMF.
Having just used that acronym, I wonder if Inspiration Mars Foundation realized, when they picked their name, that the Mission Impossible TV show/movies used IMF for Impossible Missions Force? Perhaps we should promote this acronym as Incredible Mars Flight or something similar before the disbelievers catch on.
The IMF succeeds; although they do have a few problems along the way.
an important reminder from ideas past………………………….
http://ntrs.nasa.gov/archiv… human Venus free return mission that utilized a Saturn upper stage vented of its fuel after Trans Venus Injection, is there a possible analogy with keeping the Falcon heavy third stage?the falcon third stage would need a docking ring and hatch, possibly this configuration, Falcon heavy third stage/hatch and docking ring/Bigalow module/another docking ring.Dragon performs a, http://en.wikipedia.org/wik…
with the bigalow module.
Tito’s mission profile should work for a Venus flyby. Or a NEO mission.
Venus… hmm, that brings up two questions in my mind — 1) Would you encounter less, more, or same amount of cosmic radiation the closer you go to the sun, and 2) where does the solar radiation (not heat) hit the limit to where a manned mission could go — before getting to Venusian orbital distance or closer?
–T
If Dennis Tito orbit Mars with two crew, the mission given by the president to do the astronauts go to Mars to “eventually” following a landing, it seems that is already fulfilled. For 2 billion U.S. dollars.
Looks like Dennis Tito will do what NASA hopes to do in 2030 now, cheaper and more efficiently.
Good luck, but I do not believe in the success of the mission. Dennis Tito will not, obviously. What are the guinea pigs?
Quote from SN’s Justin Ray: “Tito is self-funding the project for the first two years, ensuring it gets a solid footing until external financial support can be found and pumped into the mission. Engineering work on “critical-path items” started last month.”
I just think if he doesn’t have the money NOW then it’s highly improbable he’ll fly 58 months from now. Thought he was rich, guess not rich enough.
Still, Tito has a fallback plan with that 2031 date lol. He’s like a space Ross Perot and he believes in UFO’s!!!!
We’re all assuming SpaceX is involed, but they indicate they are not.
Where else will a launcher come from?
There is no launcher in existence that can hit the C3 needed for pushing a 10 T vehicle on that trajectory (not even the Falcon Heavy)
The countdown has started. Is there enough contingency time? NASA with COTS had done a timeline,and then Kistler failed. The delays began. If someone says they can deliver something and then doesn’t that may be it. They seem to have everything covered now. Too bad NASA is not trying this. This what everyone has been writing about. Use existing,but Congress says SLS is the law and SLS will not be ready. They say the cost will be the same as a LEO mission. So $300 million?
31,500 mph return. Aero-braking. The capsules coming back from LEO does this every time. A lifting reentry. They could keep the temp. correct by adjusting the AOA, but the heat may build up. Besides doing several orbits,they are also looking at dipping in and out of the air. A heat then cool cycle.
I guess it is impossible to do a lander. Sit on Mars for 2years. 2 short trips.Like 6 and 9 months. O r slip and 2 nine months. Too bad.
How much would Mars Direct cost in today’s $?
There’s an interesting blog here: http://www.wired.com/wireds…
Tito should wait until there is a method of acceleration, some kind of ion propulsion, VASIMR, or whatever, that will make the journey in a reasonable time, much shorter than now planned. I think he is jumping the gun and depriving the goal of possibly its greatest value: the development of new technology that realistically enables us.
The problem is that the technology development pace is very slow. Basically, he wants it done now, not when some ‘warp drive’ is available in the distant future.
Seems like Mars is a hard problem, just the kind of problem that is great for innovation.
Ok, my .02 non-copper cents:
I think that the idea of using a capsule for any mission over say, 90 days is…. silly. Too little room for the occupants, much less for cargo. If you are going to go out beyond a 90-day period, in my mind you should use the capsule for one of three reasons — 1) liftoff, 2) re-entry, 3) emergencies. Otherwise, move out into a bigger place and shut the thing down until needed.
The inflatable is a good idea from a space standpoint, but it’s real advantage is simply that it’s a lot easier to send up… that’s all. In the end, some form of rigid cargo vessel(s) will need to go up separate with the supplies needed for a journey of this length. Maybe send it up to the ISS in ’16, inflate it, and send cargo ships to outfit it over the next 2 years, then send up the capsule/power/propulsion stack to dock with the inflatable before leaving earth orbit?
One other question to ponder — once inflated, what sort of structural integrity will the inflatable have from the standpoint of having something rigid docked on the opposite end from the capsule? Maybe a small science module, separate power/solar wing module, etc?
–T