Russia's Annual ISS Complaints Begin – Again
Russia says to launch own space station in 2025, AFP
“Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Yury Borisov said in recent days that Moscow was considering whether to leave the ISS programme from 2025 because of the station’s age. Roscosmos said on Monday that a decision on quitting the ISS had not yet been made. “When we make a decision we will start negotiations with our partners on forms and conditions of cooperation beyond 2024,” the space agency told AFP in a statement.”
Russia to Quit Int’l Space Station in 2025 – Reports, Moscow Times
“We have 2024 as an agreed time limit with our partners on the work of the ISS. After that, decisions will be made based on the technical condition of the station’s modules, which have mostly worn out their service life, as well as our plans to deploy a next-generation national orbital service station,” Roscosmos said.”
Keith’s note: It is springtime and right on schedule the Russians are once again making strange noises as a prelude to renegotiating something. It happens every year. They never have enough money to do the things that they threaten to do – or not do – or both. Of course, all of the problems they allude to seem to have to do with their hardware (and lack of Soyuz seat sales). So … what are they going to do? Give their ISS hardware to the ISS partners? Sell it? Detach it and deorbit it? FYI there is a huge lien against the entire program to deorbit ISS once it has completed its task. Is Russia going to help pay for this? As for the new Russian space station – show me the money.
– Earlier posts about Russia
It is now of greatest urgency that NASA and its remaining partners in ISS begin building replacements for the Russian Zvezda and the FGB service module , ready to be orbited and attached by 2025. I’m sure a SpaceX Starship has more than enough payload capacity to deliver very sizeable modules to ISS, including a refuelable propulsion unit for routine orbit boost to replace the FGB. The Russian segments can be detached and deorbited to gently sulk away into the South Pacific graveyard to join Mir in the cemetary. ISS should be good for another 15 years when thusly modernized.
That means we have to design, build, test while we are doing Artemis/Gateway. There is just not a lot of available capacity.
Well, with a totally Democrat administration we might have the momentum on it. Remember…Democrats pick on Russia mostly and Republicans pick on China mostly.
Here’s an idea. Someone in Congress can invite the Chinese to replace the Russian components. I’m sure they already have the blueprints.
I agree completely! One Starship has more interior room than the entire ISS and might do nicely as an initial ISS. Either way, let us not be dragged down by the Russian components of the ISS. They have served their purpose and it is time to move on.
So make a Starship the new FGB.
If we can’t, then I’m sure China can. In fact, I’ll bet they’re ready today to duplicate those components precisely. 😉
They put up their own station a while ago and it was similar to Mir, similar to ISS. Why would they duplicate Russian components when they could (and have already) build their versions?
Kinda what I meant.
Kit out a bespoke Starship and attach it full time to ISS.
We could detach and deorbit the Zvezda but I am not sure how we could detach the Zarya, it is too “deep” in the ISS. The leaks that I have heard about are all in Zvezda and that thing is probably going to continue leaking – and the rate will probably increase. It would greatly increase safety to get rid of the Zvezda so I hope we can do that.
We “own” the Zarya in spite of the fact that Russia does things like turn off the smoke alarms without telling us. If Russia did get out of the ISS they would probably demand that we pay them for the Zarya – again.
I was thinking the same thing. It certainty won’t be as simple as it may seem at first. To replace Zaria or Zvezda I expect the ISS would have to be unoccupied while the work was done. Then there’s the problem of moving those big assembled pieces around. I don’t see it happening.
Correct. The US doesn’t have the knowledge necessary to command and control Zarya. From that point of view, it’s a Russian module. And even if the US had that knowledge, there is still the issue of sourcing spare parts.
To reply to both Jeff2Space and Jack at the same time…
The Zarya is a fairly simple module and we could almost certainly support it as well as the Russians could – it has been controlled from the Russian control center (from a “separate” room) since it was launched. We have a lot of the formats for commands, etc and a lot of the control could be by the crew. Spare parts might be more of an issue, we could pull out a lot of the systems and replace them. This would be panels, conduits, etc.
The Zvezda has a lot of stuff stuck on it, they would have to be separated and moved off of ISS. Then Zvezda could be undocked and deorbited with a Progress. That could all be done with the hatch between Unity and Zarya closed.
This would be a MAJOR operation but could be done – with the leaks on Zvezda we should wonder if it might have to be abandoned anyway, maybe in place. Will the cracks keep expanding? Probably yes.
Is it really too deep to detach though?
Zvezda would have to go first (and considering in 2021, we’re still talking about Zvezda’s issues, really takes me back to the 1990s). But if you detached Zvezda, you will have had to replace Zvezda, likely with a module attached to Node 2 for the time being. This propulsion module would need the equivalent of the fuel tanks that Zarya has for Zvezda. The most logical choice, of course, is the PPE for the Lunar Gateway.
MRM2 and Pirs would go as well.
Then we’re at Zarya, which is mostly just for storage now and fuel. We could put a module at Node 3 for storage if need be, but fuel wouldn’t be possible / desirable at that time and it would be better to integrate those tanks directly into the replacement for Zvezda. So at this point, we’re just looking at a big storage room.
There is two other wrinkles in this: both during and after this (totally hypothetical thought experiment), you’re using up all the available docking ports moving stuff around, and you’re cutting off the two Soyuz’s that are always attached to the station. So as big a deal as losing the station’s service module, is that you’re losing docking ports that the US never directly uses, but are always there for the Russians to resupply the statin with (via Progress) or provide emergency escape capability. We’re already seeing, right now, the problem with the station being so busy that there is no room for Starliner to dock because of lack of PMA space. If we’re having to replace 2 permanent Soyuz with 1 eight-seater permanent dragon or 2 4 seater dragons, we’re going to have no room for any additional spacecraft to dock, period, ever.
That means in addition to replacing Zvezda with a PPU and Zarya with a storage room, you’re going to want a Node 4. And maybe even a Node 5 and at least 2 (and likely more, let’s go 1:1 with the Russian design we’re replacing and say 4) PMA units .
Node 4 fortunately already exists. It was just never launched. Node 5, if needed, would have to be built fresh.
But really what we’re describing in the Zarya replacement is a very stretched Node. Let’s call this Node 5 to not confuse with the extant Node 4.
So our list of goods now is the PPE, Node 5 (stretched), Node 4, and 4x PMAs. That isn’t cheap. Based on Node 3 costs, Node 5 would cost $500m+. Node 4 exists but would have to be refurbished, for likely a $150 million (let’s say). The PPE seems to be about $375 million base don the Maxar contract (pre HALO costs, which I’m not including). PMA’s cost about $75 million each. So we’re at $1.3 billion, before launch costs. Yikes.
In terms of construction sequence, the most efficient way would be:
1: Launch Node 5. Dock it to Node 3.
2: Launch 1x PMA, put it on Node 5.
3: Launch PPE, dock at Node 2.
4: Detach any Soyuz and progress on MRM2, Pirs and Zvezda. Then detach MRM2 and Pirs, then Zvezda. PPE takes over.
5: Launch 2 Dagons to replace a Soyuz, put them on PMA-2 and PMA-3
6: Detach MRM1 and any Soyuz/Progress.
7: Detach Zarya.
8: Detach PMA-1 (or relocate it if possible).
9: Relocate Node 5 to connect to Node 1’s aft via CBM.
10: Launch Node 4, connect to to Node 5’s aft via CBM.
11: Launch 2x to 3x more PMAs and put them on Node 4 and 5.
12:Move the PPE to Node 4’s aft.
And we will have replaced (in our fun little though experiment) the Russian segment, at substantial cost and a lot of work.
Remind me again why anyone wants to bring them aboard other post-ISS plans?
While we are dreaming… What about Nauka? If we assume that it ever launches (what, it’s like 14 years late??) it should duplicate most of Zvezda?? Russia says that it is heading to ISS though they could start Mir2 with Nauka.
I think Nauka’s basis (as a different module under a different name) started as a Zvezda back up in the 1990s in case Zvezda was destroyed on launch, but since then it’s been extensively modified. I’m not sure how much duplicate capability it has left.
But I don’t think it’s ever going to launch. I don’t think the Russians particularly want to launch it. And in any event, it would be Russian owned, and what my thought experiment above was doing was de-Russifying the Space Station.
Where is the Node 4 that already exists? THe last 2 nodes Noses 2 and 3) and Cupola were built by Italy as part of a barter and because NASA had run out of overrun funds for Boeing.
Node 4 currently exists as the Structural Test Article. It was originally going to be Node 1, but flaws were found, and the original Node 2 became the actual Node 1. It sat in storage for years thereafter.
About 7 or 8 years ago NASA considered refurbishing the STA as “Node 4” (a name attached to it ever since) and sending it to the ISS on a Atlas V along with a space tug. This never happened.
Node 4 still exists in storage, in the same STA condition it’s been in since the 1990s. To launch it would mean an overhaul of it.
How do you say, “whining for political advantage” in Russian?
In this case, I’d go with дураки (fools or idiots.)
нытье о политическом преимуществе
LOL!
Pretty sure the Russian segment provides all the reboost capability for ISS … whatever the replacement solution offered up, it will need this functionality.
So give Axiom Space a/the NASA Low Earth Orbit Platform Utilization contract so their station can become a free-flyer earlier than 2028, then tell Uncle Vlad to KOA.
https://sbir.nasa.gov/print…
It seems we have two options to keep the ISS functional without the Russian segment.
First would be to modify Cygnus. It’s already proven it’s ability to boost the station. It would seem there would not need to be extensive mods to need to take over the Russian segment maneuvering capability. Of course it would probably need to be swapped out on a regular basis.
Second would be a modified PPU being built for the Lunar Gateway.
Either solution would probably be better than the current state with the leaky Russian segment.
Invading and taking over their neighbors is expensive, so Russia must cut back in other arenas.
As for ISS, when the time comes we’ll just replace it rather than trying to disentangle Russian elements and rearranging the other dinky little bits. Launching 100 ton segments will soon be relatively cheap.
We should have launched due east and built one all by ourselves in the first place…
Just call the replacements for Zvezda and Zarya infrastructure and the current Administration will be happy to pay for it. Or maybe you can get the IPs to contribute the replacement modules since Gateway will no longer be needed. Remember Gateway was needed because the underpowered Orion could not get to a low lunar orbit. With Starship you no longer need an Orion or a Gateway. IN fact it would make more sense to turn Orion into a replacement module for ISS.