Neil Tyson Has Lost Faith in American Human Space Exploration
Keith’s note: Gee, I sure hope Tyson doesn’t say things like this to the young people who visit the Rose Center to learn about the wonders of space. Talk about a quick way to deflate someone’s career goals. Why study for a career that focuses on helping to send humans to Mars if its going to happen in China – not the U.S.?
My Twitter response to Tyson’s original tweet: “.@neiltyson WRT bit.ly/zNcZTA You think that the first human on Mars will be Chinese? No faith in the U.S.? Defeatist. EPIC FAIL”
Keith
The USA can’t even launch a Mercury spacecraft into orbit.
At present, we are in the doldrums.
And with the American space community divided about which way to go, it is no wonder that those of prominence have lost faith.
They said that the 1st person on Mars would be of my generation.
The way we are going
This is a little surprising coming from Neil. He, more than anyone, should realize the shuttle had to finally die..and that the rebuilding process would be long, tumultuous, but ultimately rewarding.
I’m still surprised they ended the shuttle program on such a high note, it took a lot of guts by thousands and thousands of people to do what they did..and all we ever hear is doom and gloom.
Me? I’m still celebrating and I am very proud of such a remarkable achievement. Everything will get back on track, or maybe it won’t. I have faith and I have patience. Neil should too.
Given the current circumstances the US is in, with no man-carrying launchers, no orbital spacecraft, even much of the “US segment” of ISS having been built by our “partners” and not in the US,an as yet undefined future plan for what we are doing next, let alone in 10 or 20 years, and no obvious signs of US leadership, I’d say that Dr. Tyson is justified in his pronouncement. It is unfortunate but too true. NASA’s muddling the last half a decade shows it cannot figure out what it needs to do. Maybe some of the commercial spacecraft developers can get the US back on track to being able to put people in space, though it is a bit early to be certain. Putting people in space is just a beginning; we’ve lost the capabilities we had with Shuttle and earlier programs.
We can all be avid fans and cheerleaders, but that doesn’t buy us much. We need vision, definition, design, development, and more than anything else, movement towards new and higher orbits. We have not seen any of that. The absolutely lethargic pace of the program since 2005, demonstrates the current US capabilities better than any other estimations.
I would say it’s more like no faith in our national political leadership (of either party). I mean come on, look at the current plan: orbit the moon in 10 years; visit an asteroid in 20 years; orbit Mars in 30 years; land on Mars “someday”. That is not a plan that inspires faith, or excitement, or commitment. It’s nothing more than a placeholder for a real plan, which given today’s leadership, is about the best we can hope for.
The next time I hear someone say “We can go to the Moon, but we can’t do $X” I’m liable to punch them, instead of patiently trying to explain that we CAN’T go to the Moon; That we lost that capability (and the will to do it) 40 years ago, and it looks like it’ll be 40 more years under the current policy-wonk meme of “space over our dead body”.
“come on, look at the current plan: orbit the moon in 10 years; visit an asteroid in 20 years; orbit Mars in 30 years; land on Mars “someday”. That is not a plan that inspires faith, or excitement, or commitment.”
I had the opposite reaction. Constellation didn’t excite me at all. But I thought the pre-SLS Obama plan would have been brilliant. Take the money planned for Cx, split it over the next decade between building up commercial LEO HSF and creating the modular hardware necessary for an asteroid mission. And if you have the ability to buy low cost commercial launches and the ability to reach an asteroid, the next President can say “Back to the Moon!” and know that all he has to fund is a new lander. Bam! Done. Humans on the moon. The next President after that can call for a Mars Moon Mission, basically an extended asteroid mission, and the hardware already exists. Bam! Done. Humans in Mars orbit.
Three Presidents, three entire BEO mission classes. Now the forth President takes office, how can he not say “Land on Mars!”. (Which is a hell of a lot harder, but still, by then, that NASA might be able to manage it.)
Instead we got SLS.
[dupe]
…
I too, for decades, have hated the “We can go to the Moon, but we can’t do …”. Ever since I watched Apollo/Saturn materials at NASA trucked off to excess and salvage. Because most of these are of the same intellectual heritage as those who couldn’t rationalize a space program to retain exploration.
As is now too. Specifically, SLS/CxP, like Saturn, cannot and will not be sustained. Look carefully at the financial side and you can only discover this. In comparison, other nations programs are sustainable. Whenever HSF is in denial like this we get a disaster.
My read of Tyson is that he is in despair. He has a good reason to be, if you listen to the political, industry, and agency sides.
What SLS advocates won’t hear is that the path to the future that works, has nothing to do with current plans. SLS misadventure may lead to China advantage unlike Saturn/Shuttle cold war advantage.
The reason is that the means of how to compete in HSF is misperceived. Intentionally so by certain parties that don’t care about the consequences because they can elide blame.
Can the US out compete? Yes. Can it do so ignorantly, stupidly? Never. Is it trying to? Yes. Because it is misapplying its strengths.
Dr. Tyson is a brilliant scholar and probably has the
foresight to see where the current administration in Washington, DC is taking
this country … The future of NASA and manned space exploration is at the
bottom of their To-Do list. — Grandpa’s opinion
The current administration attempted to put us on the correct path for American human space exploration. They attempted to turn it over to the people. Taking it away from the soviet style government run mega agency system that resulted in so many failures and turning it over to the commercial system, that dynamo of invention and innovation that still sets America apart from the rest of the world.
The cold war is over. You soviets with your huge bloated centralized government run programs lost. American know-how won. Go home, you lost.
The current administration had the foresight to initiate the Commercial Crew program, our best chance of returning to human launch capability. Commercial Crew was then slashed by Congress. Where would a Romney administration get $400 billion to send a small group of astronauts to Mars when it would be committed to a vast reduction in the federal budget? keep in mind that Romney has laughed at the concept of moon colonies.
I do not have faith in our national political leadership. Last year I watched lobbyists try to dismantle CCDev even though CCDev is the only thing working worth a flip. It is all about the money, contracts, and re-election.
I watched very good tea party conservatives vote with the money. It was shameful. SLS is dying and you all do not even know it yet, or why.
If we are the first to land humans on the moon, and I believe that the United States will, it will be because of private industry and the free markets. NASA of course will play a roll – but not with SLS or Orion.
Kudos Keith,Andrew Gasser
TEA Party in Space
I agree. Commercial Crew, with a competitive, multipath approach to reducing the cost and complexity of human spaceflight, is the best chance we have of quickly restoring our human launch capability and moving on to a fully reusable launch system. The lobbyists and members of Congress from both parties seem intent on delaying it.
Re-tweeting something is a lot different than tweeting it. It may be more an example of public sentiment/fears then his own opinion.
I’m less surprised by Tyson’s comment than I am by the angry response to it. Personally, I have relatively little respect for the man, but I wonder whether he isn’t making the right call here.
The reason is that the USA — which, arguably, could have reached Mars by 1980 — has shown appalling judgment when it comes to human spaceflight. Congress, the Executive branch, and NASA itself have wasted almost three generations on pointless plans, funding fiascos, and a near total lack of leadership. Congress in particular appears to delight in playing whack-a-mole with every idea NASA comes up with hammering down almost every worthy attempt to get out of LEO for reasons of cost, jobs, lobbying, political animus, etc.
Unlike us, the Chinese take a long-term view and simply put one foot in front of another until they reach their goals. It is their ability to work over the long-term rather than their form of government that’s at issue here. The US simply can’t operate that way with a one-year budget cycle, two-, four-, and six-year electoral cycles and an adversarial political system.
So, if the first Americans are able to land on Mars and order Chinese take-out, we have only ourselves to blame. It’s our government, and it’s our fault when it screws up.
I know for a fact that he’s said things like that to young NASA engineers who’ve asked for his advice in changing things. His hope seems to be entirely with the generation that is today in elementary school. I guess Dr. Tyson wrote the rest of us off.
Generations X & Y have been written off for years (see http://www.economicmobility…. If those generations want to see America making its mark again in outer space, they’ll have to concentrate on mentoring & inspiring the next generations. Efforts that only reach the handful of people who make it to college & want to be scientists or engineers start too late. We have to convince the population to want a space program, be it of whatever sort (Glennan/Webb-era NASA, or TPiS, or whatever), or we’re just going to build more castles in the air. X & Y have gone a good ways towards that by founding online citizen science efforts like Galaxy Zoo, supporting their local museums, & keeping amateur astronomy & model rocketry alive.
CML
(Sorry, I don’t seem to have a Disqus account)
Uh, isn’t Elon Musk part of Generation X or Y?
Keith, Tell us where your faith in the future of a U.S. manned exploration program lies? Does it, in any way, lie in the near future? Certainly you can’t believe it lies within a re-elected Obama administration.
So it lies in a Romney administration?
Neil is a better scientist than economist. The Chinese economy is heading for a massive depression. How anyone can think that Central Planning works is beyond me. They are going to have trouble feeding themselves in 20 years let alone going to Mars.
Dear Trout: The Apple store in Beijing had to close because of a near-riot by Chinese, some of whom had flown in from Tibet, wanting to be first to buy the new iPhone. Which, by the way, is made in China. Does this sound like a stagnent, centrally-planned Marxist-Leninist economy?
China consumes more steel and aluminum, has more high-speed trains, more internet users, more students graduating as scientists and engineers than the US. China may have a higher GDP in 20 years. They can afford to feed themselves, in fact they buy rice from the US and sell us computers. That doesn’t make them better, but instead of trying to start another cold war, maybe we should be working with China in space in order to better understand them on earth. Maybe when we land on Mars it will not be a crew of Americans, or of Chinese, but simply people from Earth.
“Does this sound like a stagnent, centrally-planned Marxist-Leninist economy?”
People cueing up for hours just to get the “bare necessities”? No wonder they rioted. 🙂
Humans will not be going to Mars in this century, American or Chinese. The technology to do so is generations away and would take trillions to develop. A trip to Mars using conventional chemical rockets is a suicide mission. There is no profit in space exploration as of yet, and until there is you can be the US won’t be doing it. This is a by-product of capitalism, not the current administration’s policy. No profit, no interest. I believe the post-Constellation Obama policy of R&D is the only path to reaching Mars this century and this will not be happening in the current or future political environment in this country. Just remember this. As bad as you think it is, this is as good as it gets. Things will only get worse from here for NASA human spaceflight due to internal incompetence, not presidential or congressional policy. It is all but certain that the last Shuttle mission was the last manned flight by NASA, ever. Until commercial space regains and advances the capability to go into space, it will not happen again in this country.
FWIW, while I feel you’re right-conventional chemical’s not going to do it-I also can’t see how you can blame it completely on NASA.
There is plenty of blame to go around. What I’m saying is that no matter what congress or the president do, NASA will fail because it no longer has the ability to design and development manned systems. We could if given $30 billion per year or so, but with today’s lean budgets there is no way. I could be done on our projected budgets, but not by the current NASA. I work for NASA and I see every day the fact that our internal senior leadership and middle management is mostly incompetent and have absolutely no experience in design and development. Their experience is in operations with the Shuttle. Their entire careers have been during mature Shuttle operations and the are ignorant of design. They put their cronies in charge, not the ones who know how to do it. Constellation had enough money to do the job, but it was squandered on a failed architecture. The program offices in human space flight spend over half the resources on micromanaging the project that they know nothing about. Short of tens of billions of dollars extra in funding, there is nothing that the administration or congress can do to allow NASA to succeed. Well, they could replace everybody, and I mean everybody, with people who have never worked here before. Then there could be a chance.
Rubbish. There is the tech just not the will to get to Mars.
What I’m saying is that Neil deGrasse Tyson is an optimist.
Neil Tyson certainly wasn’t the first person, celebrity or otherwise, to suggest this and similar ideas. I think it’s an obvious thought to occur to people, given the facts.
I’m assuming that the intent of Tyson and others who get heard is to get people riled up about this and hopefully encourage more people to demand action and change from their government. Because this is really about something that’s the same in both countries — those in government with the power to control the money are the ones who decide what happens with large expenditure items, like a national space program.
In China, the controlling portion of the federal government has decreed that they will have a space program which shall do such and such, and have provided sufficient money consistently over time to make it happen. In the US, Congress has decided that it does not want a US national space program that does anything more than provide jobs to constituents.
Some people, like oldscientist below, believe it is the fault of the people when the government “screws up,” and therefore it is up to the people to change it. That’s a great theory, and it’s supposed to work that way (representation by population), but in reality the people are as powerless to change the situation as a pedestrian is in stopping an oncoming bus with his bare hands. I think that part of the reason that the average person doesn’t seem to care about the space program is because it’s one of those things that he just can’t change. I wish this wasn’t true, but I think that’s the basic reality.
Steve
Good points, Steve. My sense, though, is that the average person lacks a sense of the importance of HSF partly because he or she hasn’t been educated to have one. NASA has made a dog’s breakfast of selling its worth to the people; its outreach is almost pathetic. Meanwhile, there are so many economic and political distractions at work that it’s hard to even get peoples’ attention. Only SpaceX seems to have caught the popular imagination, and even SpaceX could do a better job.
Neil Tyson is just being honest. Unlike those who subscribe to no-investment American exceptionalism (which is most of the American exceptionalists). Yes, we’ve got the smartest kids in the world! Except we don’t. Yes, we’ve got the most rapidly expanding economy. Except we don’t.
Tyson properly expresses this as a challenge, not as an undeserved warm hug.
Look, China is going to put the first person on Mars not because our space program is rudderless, but because they’re massively outtraining us in scientists and engineers.
Tyson is right. Get a clue Keith. A service economey ain’t gonna launch no astronauts.
Come on, Keith. Nobody is more red, white, and blue than Neil. I take his common to mean: “Come ON, America! Get off your ass!”
Then why didn’t he say that?
This has more punch. It’s rhetoric.
Huh…colorful language makes people think?
Tyson has worked hard to get public support for NASA and deserves credit for it. But he seems to believe that only spaceflight can inspire American students and he seems to blame NASA and the administration for the limited resources it has available and the fact that we are not sending Americans to Mars. Human flight to Mars is possible but it is also expensive. America does not have the resources because Americans place a higher priority on cutting taxes and increasing their personal wealth. We want things done, but we are not willing to pay the price.
“America does not have the resources because Americans place a higher
priority on cutting taxes and increasing their personal wealth.”
Before 1975, growth in median family income precisely matched growth in GDP. “America” equalled “American”. Policies that benefited America, were felt by most Americans. If the GDP doubled over 30 years (which it did), then the median family income would double over the same period (and they did).
Between 1975 and 2000 there was a disconnect. The only wealth that increased was the top 1%, the remaining 99% did not benefited from GDP growth in the ’80s and ’90s. And since 2000, even the the bottom 0.9 of the top 1% have seen flat incomes, only the top 0.1% have seen a (sharp) rise in income. And that continues today, the only part of the economy that has recovered from the Great Recession is the top 0.1%, whose incomes have not just recovered but increased substantially. (Although the amount of taxes they pay hasn’t even returned to pre-2007 levels. Ie, they’re making more money, but paying less tax.)
Saying that “Americans place a higher priority on … increasing their personal wealth” isn’t true. “America” no longer equals “American”. Only a tiny fraction benefit from US policies.
The average person can’t change a lot of things by himself or herself. However, if we club together, it’s pretty amazing. I’ve participated in efforts to save two local school-run science centers from the budgetary axe, & both succeeded.
Someone has to remind Dr Tyson that the U.S. is more than NASA. Mars has been stated as the goal of Elon Musk and one of the key reasons why he started SpaceX. Underestimating U.S. ingenuity and resolve isn’t wise.
Why is it that in the same context of these lofty objectives to move the human race out into the universe, we fell the need pit one tribe of humans against another tribe of humans as a short term means to goad them into motion? Who the heck cares what country the first person on Mars was born in or launched from? As long as it happens. And as long as there are many more.
It matters a lot to our security and prosperity – not only with respect to who was first, but who follows up. Columbus was not likely the first ti visit the Americas, perhaps it was the Chineses, but he pressed his advantage.
Being first to the moon and Mars, and pressing the advantage, matters a lot to anyone who wants to stay, or become, first rate.
I have great respect for this man. He only said it because its true. Space exploration for the US is at a close.
“No faith in the U.S.? Defeatist. EPIC FAIL”
You forgot to scream “unamerican pinko commie”. Yeah, better cover ears, sing LALA and fall deep in delusions of grandieur, as USA is doing in last two decdes. Doing “study for a career that focuses on helping to send humans to Mars” in USA is exactly what “young people who visit the Rose Center” should do to prevent “its going to happen in China” scenario.
I for one understand Tyson’s comment. We have states taking time to tear down unions and then add creation science(or non-science) to the education system,what would you say? We need to stop trying to dumb down this country and increase the education not diminish it. Maybe China can’t go to Mars, but at the rate were going we’ll be back to horse and buggy and be afraid of the dark!
Bill,
I think you’re right on the money with this. I’m a Canadian and proximity to the US gives me considerable perspective on this. The problem that you have to address first, however, is convincing the American people that there are serious problems with their public education system. They honestly believe that their education system is the best in the world, when, in fact, most kids are getting a very narrow and biased education. The US has some of the best universities in the world, but American kids come to them very unprepared. The students from other countries who come to US universities are getting a better go of it, because they come better prepared (better educated).
I’ve had a number of occasions to argue (socially) with Americans, including members of the Florida Board of Education (even though I live in Ontario) and some of what they believe is astounding. Quite aside from items like creationism, the kids are getting a US-only education — US history, US social studies, US current events, US geography, etc., and learn very little about the rest of the planet, past or present, and its people. And basic skills like spelling are sadly glossed over (which is becoming a universal problem) and they can’t even define what the word grammar means.
Before you can repair the US education system, you have to somehow defeat this blind pride in a system that is actually much less than it needs to be.
I hate to criticize another country’s system, but education is the first line of survival for children, and there is nothing more important than the welfare and well-being of children.
Steve
He might be right. But that person will speak English
He says that because its the truth.
Why hide a likely outcome if we don’t do something pronto. We all need butt kicks like this and the next generation needs to know the score. A clear and present danger and threat if there ever was one.
The U.S. Administration and Congress will unblinkingly spend a trillion dollars attempting to Nation Build in Afghanistan, Iraq, and in randomly chosen parts of the globe with end points of little value and nothing to show for it but costs and losses, while they refuse to spend a fraction of that on Nation Building here in the United States. A trillion dollars for wars that yield nothing, but cannot get 3% of that,$30B for a NASA that can secure breakthroughs and improve our nation.
Shackelford is right, Tyson has “no faith in our political leadership”, hence his Tweet message. I think he has faith in our technical know-how, just no faith in our political intelligence.
I’ve been on the Hill for decades. Recently I had a meeting with a Congressional group regarding NASA and the Space Station. At a point, one of the principals looked at the group and with dead pan seriousness said “Do you mean there are people up there?”
Yes. That stupid. Small wonder our U.S. space leadership is so pathetic.
“parts of the globe with end points of little value and nothing to show for it“
“I’ve been on the Hill for decades.“
The fact that both of these statements are made in the same post (by the same person) indicates to me that the problem which npng points out is one that he is guilty of as well, just a different subject.
The details of how, when, and how long are debatable with respect to “Afghanistan, Iraq, and in randomly chosen parts of the globe,” but to say “end points of little value and nothing to show for it but costs and losses” is an opinion that’s very much out of place (my opinion) “on the Hill.” To fail to act in aid of an oppressed, abused population (such as existed in Afghanistan and Iraq) is negligence of the highest order. If we wish to send humans to space we first need to make sure we remain human.
Steve
Most of our national debt is held by china. National debt plus med programs about equals tax revenue. Therefore all extra programs like NASA are funded with borrowed money which Increases debt which goes to help young children in china not here. Our foolish gov and ways have sold us out.
Senator Simpson said that. I hope I have the details right.
Is it possible for USA to cut the pork out. they should start with sls and Orion.
Pretty sad If you are for human space flight and you have to want NASA to cancel it’s big rocket programs because they are a tax payer ripoff.
His comment is harsh, but fair. America lost the plot a couple of decades ago, and the education system isn’t making the engineers and scientists needed to do this anymore. I lived in America (and loved it!) for ten years, but its days as number one are numbered. I wish it wasn’t so, but that’s the way it’s going. I think Neil’s comment is meant to be deliberately provocative, too. It’s certainly worked here 🙂
I don’t think it is wrong to point out that our leadership in this matter has been terrible. We can talk a good game to the kiddies as much as we want — but that won’t make a human expedition to Mars happen.
It isn’t enough to imagine it in the future. Actual concrete steps must be taken. It’s been over 30 years since we went to the moon, and now we cannot even get past a useless money-sink outpost in LEO. How pathetic. Time to actually DO SOMETHING!