Will People Really Stay Away From The SpaceX Crew Launch? (Update)

1. No.

2. Our President suggested bleach would work internally to kill the virus. You think people would have common sense not to be in crowds for this launch?

   We have reached full idiocracy.

   1. I’m having a bad morning. So I’ll just say, “Darwin days on the beach.” And I know that’s wrong, since an idiot who gets infected can infect less stupid people. But my initial reaction is a lack of sympathy for people who do blatantly stupid things.

3. I’ll be watching NASA TV from home, but then again, I live in Ohio.

   1. So do I but if a bureaucrat tells me not go down there I’m more inclined to go down there that not.

      1. Which undermines the whole point of trying to protect the public from a deadly disease and limit its spread from human to human.

         1. Sadly Americans have a habit of making problems worst by not trusting experts. Look at how the distrust of government experts on nuclear energy helped create today’s global climate crisis and continues to limit the response to it. This virus shows again why good quality science education is so important for everyone. Maybe it will encourage a national effort to improve science literacy nationwide.

            1. “Not trusting experts”

               There’s been a prevalent attitude in America these past 4 decades or so that the ‘government’ is so wasteful, so inefficient, that it’s simply not to be trusted; and as a result, we’ve seen budgets cut to our finest agencies (as a single example) year after year; the thinking being that there’s so much waste and abuse.

               Which of course is not to say that there is waste, and there is abuse. There certainly is.

               On the other hand, cuts have been so steep, and so pervasive, that industry takeover is quite wide; and events like E. coli outbreaks are more and more frequent.

               And of course, each outbreak is cited as evidence that the agency is simply doing a bad job. Cut the budget!

               And, sadly, we need look no further than our current heartbreak. Our Federal apparatus is mighty indeed, staffed with experts and experienced ‘bureaucrats’, all of who know what to do.

               Yet we find a WH knowing that its proper place most certainly is not that of a ‘shipping clerk’; this from a WH befuddled with knowing exactly what its proper role might be, while simultaneously removing crucial parts of our national security apparatus that would be quite useful.

               So, yea. We don’t trust experts. Agree, 100%.

            2. Yes, but you are off by about 20 years as it started with the anti-science/anti-technology counter culture of the 1960’s with the anti-war and then anti-nuclear protests.

            3. Largely true. Thank you.

               The generations that followed mine can thank us for anti-science and free sex 🙂

            4. I think it goes farther back than that. I’m currently rereading Twain’s _Innocents_Abroad_. From his descriptions of some of his fellow passengers (and, occasionally himself), self-appointed experts have been around for a long time. Actually, now that I think about it, Martin Luther had a very dim view of heliocentric cosmology, because he thought it was counterintuitive regardless of what some astronomers said.

      2. Our local Facebook group is awash in people thinking their rights are being denied to them by the state right now by the current Stay at Home Order. I personally don’t get it.

         My sister has worked in the ventilator wing of different hospitals for years. Right now, two nurses that are her friends are intubated. My sister is literally afraid for her life right now, and that won’t change unless the US gets this pandemic truly under control.

         I’m more worried about the rights of everyone that has an “essential” job than I am about the rights of people who should be staying at home and stopping the spread of this horrible disease.

         1. I know someone like that too and I tell him to stop watching the TV News which over hypes everything. I have some a spreadsheet, which puts things into more perspective, that I use to back up my argument with the people I know but I don’t want to post it here since it’s way off topic.

         2. In a different context, the mayor of Honolulu said he hated to sign a law which made common sense mandatory, but that, unfortunately, some people just don’t have any common sense. When it comes to this pandemic, I honestly think common sense (e.g. voluntary social distancing and working at home if at all possible) would be better than government-mandated lockdowns. But we have to realize that some people are idiots, and sometimes you need laws against idiocy.

            (By they way, none of that applies to your sister. We should really have a medal for nurses who stay at work despite the risks. The only problem with that idea is that we might run out of gold before we could mint enough medals…)

            1. “Common sense”

               We need look no further than the Governor of Ohio for common sense. A skilled leader, experienced in government, knowing what he can do, and fearless in fair decision making. And the same Mike DeWine who was so stunningly annoying during his single term in the US Senate. Leaders appear in the darkest corners, sometimes.

               The comparison with our own Governor down here in Florida, the clumsy and maladroit DeSantis, is clear.

               A very nice write-up of Gov, DeWine here:

               https://www.nytimes.com/202…

      3. Why is that?

         And please don’t take this as an affront. It’s not! It’s a serious question driven by curiosity. Is there a generalized antipathy on your part, or an experience, or?

         1. Having worked with bureaucrats I have built up an inherent mistrust of them.

            1. This is Biology. Not government personnel behavior.

            2. Your point taken Keith, but this: We are also talking about human behavior. Here we see, ‘writ small’, to coin a phrase, attitudes that drive behavior completely antithetical to personal interest, which was driving my question (and which, similarly, accounts for a recent election).

               I will shut up now.

            3. Quite the generalization.

      4. I know that feeling, but in this case, it’s wrong. Personally, if a bureaucrat (or manager) tells me to do something, I’m inclined to ask why. And if they can’t give a satisfactory answer, I just use my own judgement over what I should do. That has gotten me into trouble with managers, but overall, I think it’s a positive approach. In this case, my own judgement says that going to a crowed beach during a pandemic is a very bad idea.

         1. It’s a winning personal approach in general as well, Dr. C.

            And parenthetically: Every time I visit a food store the willingness of the public to follow new rules is stunning- and encouraging.I’ve been reminded at Publix, and at Trader Joes, and at Home Depot, that the blue tape is there for a reason! Were it not for the ‘reminders’ (=’possibly’, surely?) I’d have been <6′).

4. I’d love nothing more than to be there, but I really don’t need to be part of an unintentional virus transmission experiment.

5. The pressure DeSantis will be under to reopen the beaches for Memorial Day weekend (two days before this launch) is going to be enormous.

   1. I’m not sure the legal restrictions are that important. Here in Colorado we’re moving from a mandatory stay-at-home order to a strong recommendation to stay safe and stay at home as much as possible. Basically, changing things from a emergency rule to asking and expecting people to use common sense. I’m not sure if counting on common sense is a good idea, but if it works, that’s fine. In the case of the Crew Dragon launch, the government can open up all the beaches it wants. What matters is whether or not people use common sense and decide not to go to those beaches.

      1. Yes, a good PR campaign by NASA would help. But unfortunately I don’t think NASA PAO would have a clue how to do one.

   2. He might reconsider. If it is mention to him that lawyers will not have a shortage of future work suing the state of Florida and the beaches if there is the expected COVID-19 outbreak with this idiotic idea of prematurely reopening the beaches.

      1. To be balanced by the lawyers suing the state by business owners who lost their businesses and the workers who lost their jobs from the lockdown. Either way the lawyers win.?

         But in matters like this the local authorizes could also step in, if nothing else by blocking the roads for reasons of safety. In California the local counties dumped piles of sand in some of the skateboard parks to stop skateboarders from using them.

         1. Someday, I’m going to look up when stopped using the phrase “laughed out of court.” I great deal of litigation could be avoided if judges could simply tell people to stop being idiots and go away.

            But in terms of local authorities, and things less illegal than blocking roads, we’re doing that here in Colorado. The governor’s stay at home order ended today, but he was very clear about the law. Counties and home rule cities can make their own restrictions. Boulder is under stay at home orders until (I think) May 8th. Weld county is opening up immediately. I hope them good luck, but I don’t think they’ll get much.

            1. It likely stopped when being a lawyer became a “requirement” for being a judge instead of wisdom and common sense.

            2. The notion that local authorities know best as they are closer to the ‘people’ swept the country in my life time (or gained considerable thrust). By and large it’s just silly when applied universally.

            3. I’m not sure if I see it as a matter of local officials being closer to the people. That’s true to some extent, because different communities have different concerns. In the case of the current pandemic, I don’t think my city council is as much of a rush to reopen as other places in the state. A much larger fraction of the economy depends on people who can work from home or from the tourist industry (which isn’t going to come back any time soon.)

               But the other factor, which does not apply to something like a pandemic, is the ability of people to move. If a local school district decided that evolution shouldn’t be taught in public schools, parents who objected could more to a neighboring one. That would be a hardship, but it wouldn’t involve quitting a job and finding a new one. (And they would also have a greater ability to prevent such a decision, since it involves convincing a smaller number of people.) If such a policy were passed by the federal Congress, they’d have to move to another country to find public schools which didn’t teach nonsense. That’s a much greater hardship. And I think trying to get Congress to change their minds is a much greater effort than getting a local school district to do so.

               That said, there are truly national issues, and a pandemic is one of them. Although the constitution wasn’t set up with a pandemic in mind, the distribution of powers was set up to keep the local issues up to the locals and the national issues up to the national government. But now we’ve got a problem which is a national issue, but wasn’t in anyone’s minds when they decided how to split up national and state powers.

               In a way, that might be lucky; I’m more confident that my governor and local mayor will be sensible about the pandemic than I am of Mr. Trump being sensible. If someone thinks all the decisions are made at the national level, then I’d say they should consider what happens when an election doesn’t go well (from their point of view) and the national leaders are people with poor judgement.

      2. No different than “No Lifeguard On Duty: Swim At Your Own Risk” signs which are all over the state already. There is zero possibility that someone who gets sick from COVID-19 now can say “I didn’t know about it.” City parks are reopening all over the country, and people are being warned to still practice social distancing. This should apply to beaches just as readily.

         1. Take an epidemiology course. This is as much about not spreading the disease as it is about not catching it. This is about Biology not constitutional rights. Biology always wins that battle.

         2. You are likely right. The various layers of governments can invoke a defense that the public was warned that social isolation is needed, but open public spaces were at their own risk. In the end, I expect we’ll see a number of such statements in lawsuits in the months after the epidemic fades.

         3. Now, just about anyone on those beaches can say, “I knew about it, but since the Governor said it was ok, I thought it was over and going to a crowded beach was fine.” Which won’t help them (which doesn’t bother me) or the people they subsequently infect (which does bother me.) But the liability lawyers are going to be one group to profit in the new depression.

6. I will listen to Administrator Bridenstine and enjoy from home. Might even whip myself up one of these Lysol margarita’s President Looney Tunes is so fond of.

7. I watched the FH launch from the comfort of my car. I imagine that a lot of people could do the same for this launch without ever being in the airspace of other people.

   1. I’ll be doing the same thing.

8. Then why did he say was being sarcastic?

9. Ok..He said disinfectant…

   1. And, strictly speaking, he didn’t say it would work, just that it was something we should “look into.” But somehow I’m unimpressed. On my list of things people should look into, regarding COVID-19, that would be way down near the bottom. Somewhere near looking into the effectiveness of sacrificing goats at midnight under a full moon. (A therapy which would work as well as injecting disinfectants, but would only harm the goat, plus some lost sleep for the people who try it…)

10. Here in Brevard (Melbourne) people are all over the place and were never in what could be considered a lock down. Ran in the park yesterday morning and it was jammed. In a month? The entire county will be jammed for that launch. Right now about the only thing closed is sit-down restaurants. Liquor stores always appear crowded judging by the parking lots.

11. Any guess as to what percent of people (who would want to watch the launch) could be accommodated if they were to park their car to watch the launch? I’m guessing that the number of people watching this launch would normally be a bit less than the number of people who watch the FH launch (less novel now) and few would travel by air during COVID so that would be some modest percent who wouldn’t come. Then I think that there were a lot of people during the FH launch who parked their cars within view of the launch but hit out in order to hang out on the beach. And then there were more areas where people could have parked but didn’t.

    So, all together, I think that a local policy allowing people to park and watch the launch would accommodate most all of the people wanting to watch.

    1. I have been to a zillion launches. No one is going to stay inside their cars.

       1. I will be out of my car in the event that others are sufficiently spaced. Otherwise, not.

          An observation: avoiding this disease is – well, it’s easy! It is seriously easy, presuming a person’s ability to distance.

          As a senior citizen I’m grateful that I can stay healthy this way. Because recovering? Not so simple.

          1. Just remember that the 6 feet distance is based on decades old studies and you probably need more room. And its only valid if someone is actually coughing or sneezing from it.

             https://www.livescience.com…

             Is 6 feet enough space for social distancing?

             By Rafi Letzter – Staff Writer
             a month ago

             Not everyone thinks that’s enough distance.

             “Six feet is probably not safe enough,” Raina MacIntyre, a professor of global security and the head of the Biosecurity Program at the Kirby Institute in Australia, told Live Science in an email. “The 3-6 foot rule is based on a few studies from the 1930s and 1940s, which have since been shown to be wrong — droplets can travel further than 6 feet. Yet hospital infection control experts continue to believe this rule. It’s like the flat-Earth theory — anyone who tries to discuss the actual
             evidence is shouted down by a chorus of believers.”

    2. At a guess, based on the density of people at the “friends and families” site for the MAVEN launch, I’d say cars with four people in them could accommodate less than 20% of the people who normally attend a relatively minor launch. Possibly under 5%. So I don’t think that’s a viable option. Just stay at home and watch it on YouTube. You’ll miss the vibration and some of the sound, and part of the excitement is the crowd experience. But social distancing is going to ruin the crown experience anyway.

12. Just a thought, but maybe NASA could say the launch was scrubbed and then just launch it in secret with no advance notice so crowds would have no reason to gather. They seem to do meetings well without advance notice to the press, why not rocket launches?

13. That’s laughable.

    1. So is nitpicking every word someone says and changing the context.. Hilarious, actually.

       1. President. Televised press conference. National emergency. I’m surprised people scrutinize every word. Not.

14. “Endlessly beat up by a biased press?” Oh please. Most articles are based on his exact words and idiotic statements. His claim of sarcasm regarding ingesting disinfectant is yet another example of how he and his sycophants try to spin the ridiculous things he says out loud. The blind allegiance of his followers is nauseating. Meanwhile over 60,000 have died largely due to his stubbornness and incompetence. See you in November.

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