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NASA’s Budget Request Sucks – Its Space Exploration Shrinkflation
NASA’s Budget Request Sucks – Its Space Exploration Shrinkflation

Keith’s note: True to form, overt politico Senator Administrator Bill Nelson D-FL said “As history has proven, as the present has shown, and as the future will continue to demonstrate, an investment in NASA is an investment in America for the benefit of humanity,” said NASA Administrator Bill Nelson. “President Biden’s budget will fund our nation’s abilities and leadership for the future of space exploration, scientific discovery, cutting-edge technology, climate data, the next generation of aeronautics, and inspiring our future leaders – the Artemis Generation.” This is, of course, nonsense since NASA’s budget overruns/delays on Artemis, Mars Sample Return etc. have already begin to eat up other projects. An insufficient FY 25 budget simply makes things worse. Remember just a few years ago the NASA mantra was “Journey to Mars” in the 2030s. Well, the new variant – NASA “Moon to Mars” thing now only shows the Moon – no Mars – in the 2030s. Negative progress – indeed its space exploration Shrinkflation. Clicking your heels together, crossing your fingers, and whistling “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” ain’t gonna solve anything, Bill. NASA’s plans are royally screwed. And the Artemis Generation will not witness all the happy talk you continue to throw their way. I guess that Moon rock is not in the Oval Office anymore.

Artemis shifts to the right yet again.
Artemis shifts to the right yet again.
  • According to Marcia Smith @SpcPlcyOnline {see chart above} From NASA budget summary, latest Artemis schedule. SpaceX Starship HLS test in 2026, same year as Artemis III landing. Artemis V, first use of Blue Origin’s HLS, now in 2030.
  • According to @Lori_Garver The @POTUS ’25 @NASA budget of $25.38B is ~$2.5B less than projected last year. Along w/ congressional cut of $2.3B for 2024, the agency’s growth trend is now reversed. Absorbing these reductions w/out cancelling major programs will cause delays across the board. Tough choices.
  • The Coalition for Deep Space Exploration put out a statement that only expresses concern about human spaceflight – not all the other things NASA does.
  • In a 7 March Statement the Planetary Society only focuses on space science – and not human spaceflight
  • Here are the Fiscal Year 2025 Budget Request documents posted by NASA. Read them and weep.
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  • NASA Watch
  • March 11, 2024
Personal Things On Board Odysseus – Resting On The Moon
Personal Things On Board Odysseus – Resting On The Moon

Keith’s note: A few weeks ago a robotic explorer named Odysseus completed a journey – one not unlike its mythological human namesake undertook – and struggled ashore at the south pole of the Moon. While injured and out of sorts for a while, Odysseus managed to accomplish much of what it had been tasked to do – starting with a precision landing in a place no human or droid has ever visited before. The way that Odysseus made it to the lunar surface involved some truly heroic thinking the mission control team – rather fitting for a space droid named after a hero.

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  • NASA Watch
  • March 11, 2024
IM-1 Lands On The Moon
IM-1 Lands On The Moon

Keith’s note: IM-1 landing has landed. My lunar landing talking head dance card for today (so far):

  • 6:00 am BBC 5 Live radio
  • 8:00 am KTRH radio
  • 1:50 pm Bloomberg radio/TV [Audio]
  • 2:20 pm Alhurra TV [Audio]
  • 4:20 Bloomberg radio/TV
  • 5:30 BBC 5 Live radio
  • 6:00 pm Deutsche Welle TV [Audio]
  • 6:30 pm CGTN (cancelled – overlap)
  • 6:20 Bloomberg – Live landing
  • 7:00 pm ARD TV
  • 8:00 pm Deutsche Welle TV [Audio]
  • 8:30 pm BBC World Service scrubbed
  • (Friday) 2:00 pm CGTN scrubbed
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  • NASA Watch
  • February 22, 2024
Pam Melroy: Finding Life Elsewhere In The Universe? “Inevitable”
Pam Melroy: Finding Life Elsewhere In The Universe? “Inevitable”

Keith’s note: On Saturday 27 January 2024, NASA Deputy Administrator Pam Melroy appeared on CNN with Christiane Amanpour. A variety of topics such as warfare in space, safety, going to the Moon etc. were discussed but the one topic that got the most air time was Astrobiology – the search for life elsewhere in the universe. Transcript of that portion of the interview plus a link to the entire video.

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  • NASA Watch
  • January 28, 2024
ASAP Warns NASA: A Full Plate Without Realistic Expectations And Schedules = Future Problems
ASAP Warns NASA: A Full Plate Without Realistic Expectations And Schedules = Future Problems

Keith’s note: According to this press release NASA’s Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel Releases 2023 Annual Report. According to the ASAP Report: “The current budget environment has significant implications for mission and safety risk. NASA has a very full mission plate. To the extent that their budget request is not fully funded, the leadership will need to acknowledge and make critical decisions with respect to program content or schedules, which will need to be adjusted to meet fiscal realities. Attempting to do all planned efforts on expected timelines will introduce unacceptable and unmanaged risk. The Agency will need to rely on its developed strategic vision, objectives, and architecture to establish well-defined priorities to ground its endeavors in reality – taking fully into account the risk-benefit tradeoffs. It is equally critical that the Agency be transparent about these realities and choices with its stakeholder and workforce. Stakeholders must come to understand and respect realistic expectations and schedules, and the Agency cannot bow to external pressure to exceed rational anticipations. The workforce must be confident that NASA leadership’s expectations are reasonable and authentic. The Agency is blessed with a workforce that has traditionally given one hundred percent to achieving difficult goals. If those talented and dedicated personnel are cognizant that they are embarked on a journey that is not just challenging and risky, but not realistically achievable, there will be both a serious erosion of morale and an undermining of the essential safety culture. On the assumption that NASA will make the tough choices to execute safely and effectively within budgeted resources, an even greater challenge resides in the budget uncertainty resulting from Congress’ consistent inability to provide timely and definitive appropriations. The ambiguity within which NASA must plan and execute its mission is deeply troublesome. It causes distraction from the focus on the “real work,” including safety, adds untold hours and days of unproductive labor, and (perhaps most important) hampers the ability to make timely decisions that ultimately impact safety and mission assurance. Given that it is unlikely that Congress will provide appropriate and timely budget clarity, NASA will be compelled to deal with this ambiguity. NASA should be candid and clear about – and Congress and other stakeholders should open their eyes to – the consequences of dealing with budget uncertainty.”

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  • NASA Watch
  • January 27, 2024
Latest GAO Take On NASA’s Artemis Problems
Latest GAO Take On NASA’s Artemis Problems

Keith’s note: According to GAO: “NASA has made progress demonstrating key capabilities needed to support its Artemis missions. …Despite this progress, NASA still faces several challenges:”

  • Ambitious schedules. In November 2023 (GAO-24-106256), GAO found that the Artemis III lunar landing was unlikely to occur in December 2025, as planned, given delays and remaining technical work. In January 2024, NASA adjusted the launch date to September 2026 to allow contractors time to complete a significant amount of remaining complex work.
  • Artemis III mission cost. In December 2019 (GAO-20-68), GAO found that NASA did not plan to establish an official cost estimate for this mission. NASA concurred with a GAO recommendation to establish one but has not yet done so. While NASA requested $6.8 billion to support Artemis III programs in its fiscal year 2024 budget request, decision-makers have limited knowledge into the full scope of Artemis III mission costs.
  • Acquisition management. NASA’s largest, most complex projects, including those that support the Artemis missions, continue to shape the agency’s portfolio. When these projects exceed their cost baselines and require cost reserves to meet their funding needs, it has a cascading effect on other projects. NASA officials are exploring ways to better manage this project cost and schedule growth.
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  • NASA Watch
  • January 21, 2024
NASAWatch on TV: Lunar Mission Updates
NASAWatch on TV: Lunar Mission Updates

Keith’s note: Japan successfully landed its SLIM spacecraft on the Moon this morning. However there seems to be a problem with its solar panels which are not charging its batteries. This may have to do with the panels’ orientation to the sun after landing. Unless that can be rectified the spacecraft can only operate for a matter of hours before its batteries are drained. SLIM did deploy its two small rovers and efforts are being made to see if any data has been collected. One of the rovers has responded. I was on CGTN a few minutes ago to talk about SLIM as well as the end of Astrobotic’s Peregrine mission to the Moon which returned to Earth the other day after a propulsion system failure prevented a lunar landing. I was also asked about former NASA Administrator Mike Griffin’s slam against NASA’s Artemis program. [audio]

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  • NASA Watch
  • January 19, 2024
NASAWatch On TV
NASAWatch On TV

Keith’s note: On Wednesday evening I appeared on CGTN to talk about the launch of a cargo spacecraft to China’s Tiangong and the future of the Chinese space station program [audio]. A few minutes later I appeared on the Scripps TV network and all of its affiliates talking about Astrobotic’s peregrine and sending humans back to the Moon. [audio].

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  • NASA Watch
  • January 18, 2024
NASA Delays Future Artemis Moon Missions – Again (update)
NASA Delays Future Artemis Moon Missions – Again (update)

Keith’s note: According to NASA PAO “NASA will hold a media teleconference at 1:30 p.m. EST Tuesday, Jan. 9, to provide an update on the agency’s lunar exploration plans for the benefit of all under Artemis. Audio of the briefing will stream live on NASA’s website.” So … what will be discussed? According to Reuters: “Senior NASA officials in recent months have been mulling plans to move the inaugural Artemis astronaut landing to the fourth mission, giving SpaceX and other contractors more practice before making the first such landing in half a century. NASA officials presented that option to the agency’s senior leadership last month, but it could not be determined if it chose that path. It was also unclear what the new target dates for the initial Artemis missions would be.” In 2004 NASA announced that America was going back to the Moon. 20 years later and that is still 3-4 years ahead. In 1961 NASA was challenged to go to the Moon by 1970. It got there early. When we did not know how to go to the Moon we did so faster and much cheaper. Now that we know a lot more about how to go to the Moon it takes us longer to repeat what was once so easy to do. What’s up with that? Update: here is NASA’s release. I live tweeted the presser on @NASAwatch

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  • NASA Watch
  • January 9, 2024
Peregrine Is On Its Way To The Moon (Updates)
Peregrine Is On Its Way To The Moon (Updates)

Keith’s note: The first launch of a ULA Vulcan rocket – powered by Blue Origin and Northrop Grumman engines – took off this morning at 2:18 a.m. EST and has sent the Astrobotic Pergegrine lander on its way to the Moon. Alas it is having communications and power issues which they managed to fix that but there there are critical propulsion system issues. I am going to be on Deutsche Welle TV just after 12:00 pm EST Update: [Deutsche Welle Audio] – and then on Alhurra TV around 2:45 pm EST Update: [Alhurra audio] – then BBC World News TV at 3:45 pm EST and then Deutsche Welle TV (again) just after 6:00 pm today Update: [second Deutsche Welle Audio] to talk about the mission and the various things on board the Peregrine lander. More from NASA

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  • NASA Watch
  • January 8, 2024
The Dream Is Indeed Alive: Space Exploration For Everyone – Everywhere
The Dream Is Indeed Alive: Space Exploration For Everyone – Everywhere

Keith’s note: The popularity of space exploration – both real and imagined – is something that those of us in the developed and throughly wired developed world take for granted. What we often do not appreciate is how much of our content leaks out and finds its ways across the rest of the world. And in so doing how it can inspire millions of people – ones that we never stop to think about – to aspire to explore space. [much more below]

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  • NASA Watch
  • January 7, 2024
More Talking Head Time With NASAWatch
More Talking Head Time With NASAWatch

Keith’s note: I just did an interview on CGTN and was talking about the year ahead in space – space stations, Moon, Mars – and cooperation in the exploration of space. I mentioned the fact that I was watching a space station EVA clip on social media the other day and was initially confused as to what part of the ISS the astronauts were on – and then I realized it was China’s space Station. How cool – I was confused because there are TWO modern space stations in operation. More please. We then discussed the fact that more than half of humanity has never seen humans walking on another world – live – and for them this will be doing the same thing again for the first time – with more people experiencing this for the first time than watched all of the Apollo landings. I also mentioned the fact that U.S. researchers can now submit proposals to study China’s lunar samples. I then noted that one way great nations can cooperate in space is in great endeavors like space exploration – perhaps the greatest endeavor of them all. [Audio]

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  • NASA Watch
  • January 4, 2024
Talking Heads Talking Space On TV
Talking Heads Talking Space On TV

Keith’s note: I was on Deutsche Welle TV today talking about Astrobiology Mars, Europa Clipper, JWST, international cooperation, space stations, and the year ahead in space. [Audio]. What is always frustrating to me (and by now I unfortunately understand why) is how rarely NASA sends anyone to talk on TV – especially non-American TV – about space exploration in general – and talk about everything – human and robotic, Earth and Astrophysics, commercial and civilian – everything – that all nations and all companies and so many individuals are doing – in and about space. When tired NASA spokesmouths like Bill Nelson do get on TV its to repeat pre-prepared, non-controversial, and non-committal talking points that brag about some things but gloss over other things that are best left unmentioned since the answer is embarrassing or uncertain. The NASA talking heads stick to the official Artemis II launch in 2024 even though no one at NASA believes that is even remotely possible – much less lunar landings in 2025, 2026, 2027 … I was probably the only person on global TV – here or internationally – talking about space to a zillion people today – and probably the only one who tried to be inclusive and enthusiastic about everyone’s success and opportunities – and I am certain that I was the only person on TV saying the word “astrobiology” today. Really pathetic, NASA. Someone please prove me wrong. (sigh) I’ll be on another global network in a few days. Update: here’s the DW segment with an intro – and then my banter.

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  • NASA Watch
  • January 2, 2024
That TBD Artemis III Lunar Landing Date
That TBD Artemis III Lunar Landing Date

Keith’s note: On 14 Dec 1911 Roald Amundsen and his party reached the South Pole. NASA plans to land a crew near the south pole of the Moon – but still does not know what year that will happen. And we really have no indication as to which year NASA will announce what the lunar landing date year is. Just sayin’

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  • NASA Watch
  • December 14, 2023
Hearing Preview:  Moon Mining, China Bashing, And Space Advocate Choir Practice
Hearing Preview: Moon Mining, China Bashing, And Space Advocate Choir Practice

Keith’s note: according to this notice: “On Tuesday, December 12, 2023, at 10:15 a.m., in room 1324 Longworth House Office Building, the Committee on Natural Resources, Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations will hold an oversight hearing titled “The Mineral Supply Chain and the New Space Race.” Five key messages are mentioned. The first two include the word “China”. The rest talk about supply chain issues, leadership, and space mining. One of the witnesses wrote a book with former Trump advisor Peter Navarro called “Death by China” – so I guess we can see what rabbit holes this hearing may dive into. We can’t even re-do Apollo after half a century and we get all upset when other nations try to. Don’t expect any solutions. This will just be a China bashing session mixed with ideas that space people only discuss with other space people – but not with the rest of us.

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  • NASA Watch
  • December 11, 2023
Another Moon to Mars Architecture Concept Review – But No Firm Landing Date
Another Moon to Mars Architecture Concept Review – But No Firm Landing Date

Keith’s note: According to NASA PAO: “During the review, NASA also began to define potentially viable and affordable opportunities for new programs and projects that close capability gaps. NASA will share the results of this year’s Architecture Concept Review cycle early next year. This will include an update to the agency’s Architecture Definition Document and associated white papers, which provide additional detail on results from this year’s strategic analysis cycle. Both the updated Architecture Definition Document and white papers will be made available on NASA’s Moon to Mars architecture webpages.” Meanwhile, based on the latest GAO report, earlier GAO and OIG reports, uncertain budgets, cost overruns, schedule delays etc., you gotta wonder when NASA is going to formally fess up and say that the Moon landing date is “NET [year]”.

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  • NASA Watch
  • December 3, 2023
The Antarctic Treaty And The Artemis Accords
The Antarctic Treaty And The Artemis Accords

Keith’s note: 56 Nations have signed the Antarctic Treaty and 33 have signed the Artemis Accords. Given more than a half century of global, peaceful collaboration in Antarctica we can now work toward a similar mode of cooperation in space – for everyone, everywhere. Alas, you’d think that on #AntarcticaDay that NASA OIIR or NASA PAO or someone at NASA HQ might stop to note the resonance between these two similar efforts. A worthy goal would be for NASA to seek to equal – and perhaps surpass – the size and extent of the successful Antarctic Treaty. But no. They just do photo ops at embassies.

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  • NASA Watch
  • December 1, 2023
GAO: Artemis Moon Landing In 2025 Is Unlikely. Maybe 2026. Or 2027. Or …
GAO: Artemis Moon Landing In 2025 Is Unlikely. Maybe 2026. Or 2027. Or …

Keith’s note: According to GAO: The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is preparing to land humans on the moon for the first time since 1972 in a mission known as Artemis III. Since GAO’s September 2022 report (GAO-22-105323), NASA and its contractors have made progress, including completing several important milestones, but they still face multiple challenges with development of the human landing system and the space suits. As a result, GAO found that the Artemis III crewed lunar landing is unlikely to occur in 2025. In July 2023, NASA stated that it is reviewing the Human Landing System schedule.

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  • NASA Watch
  • November 30, 2023
B-52s Will Fly For A Century.  ISS – Not So Much
B-52s Will Fly For A Century. ISS – Not So Much

Keith’s note: NASA has asked companies to offer $1 billion ideas for how to dump the International Space Station into the Pacific. NASA seems to feel that it is not worth updating and they want to replace it with one or more commercial mini-space stations. But NASA may not have anywhere near the funds to do that for a while thus causing a gap in NASA’s human space flight access. Oh yes – and then there’s that Gateway mini-ISS that NASA wants to build out near the Moon for the constantly delayed and always over-budget Artemis Moon program. Congress is rather cool on dumping ISS – and much, much warmer on extending ISS. And if NASA gets cold feet on the future of humans in LEO – or the CLD money dries up – the various CLD commercial space station companies may have a hard time drumming up private sector funding – thus worsening the gap. We’ve already seen Northrop Grumman dropping their own independent CLD bid and merging with Voyager Space. But y’know: old things still work. And if you maintain them, they still will – and if you are smart, old things can get upgrades and keep working for less than replacing them. FWIW The USAF has flown B-52s since 1955. They still had 72 operational as of 2022. Upgrades were done in 2013-15. The last B-52s may well serve to 2050s i.e. 100 year old aircraft. Yet NASA struggles to extend the International Space Station to just one-third of that lifespan. Yes, this is an apples/oranges thing but we threw away Skylab – do you really want to splash the ISS NASA? Seriously.

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  • NASA Watch
  • November 27, 2023