Keith’s Note: When Senator Administrator Bill Nelson walked in the door at NASA they thought Mobile Launcher 2 would cost $500 million. NASA OIG now says that it will have cost $2.7 billion by the time Bechtel delivers it. Add in delays and cost overruns in the overall Artemis project and the ever slowing launch cadence between missions and you have to wonder why NASA is building something that it simply does not need and probably never did. And when OIG suggests that NASA convert this to a fixed cost contract to nail down the final costs NASA says “no”. Bill Nelson gets mad about China beating the U.S. (back) to the Moon when NASA is doing a great job of allowing that to happen. According to OIG: “NASA projects the ML-2 will cost over three times more than planned. In 2019, NASA estimated the entire ML-2 project from design through construction would cost under $500 million with construction completed and the ML-2 delivered to NASA by March 2023. In December 2023, NASA estimated the ML-2 project would cost $1.5 billion, including $1.3 billion for the Bechtel contract and $168 million for other project costs, with delivery of the launcher to NASA in November 2026. In June 2024, NASA established the Agency Baseline Commitment (ABC)—the cost and schedule baseline committed to Congress against which a project is measured—for a ML-2 project cost of $1.8 billion and a delivery date of September 2027. Even with the establishment of the ABC, NASA intends to keep Bechtel accountable to the cost and schedule agreed to in December 2023. Despite the Agency’s increased cost projections, our analysis indicates costs could be even higher due in part to the significant amount of construction work that remains. Specifically, our projections indicate the total cost could reach $2.7 billion by the time Bechtel delivers the ML-2 to NASA. With the time NASA requires after delivery to prepare the launcher, we project the ML-2 will not be ready to support a launch until spring 2029, surpassing the planned September2028 Artemis IV launch date. NASA officials disagree with our analysis and expect cost growth to lessen over time now that Bechtel has started construction of the launcher. The Agency believes this is an area of expertise for the contractor. While progress has been made with the beginning of construction of the ML-2, it is still too early to determine the impact on the contract’s continued cost growth and whether Bechtel can achieve and sustain an improved level of performance throughout the construction phase.” Full report: NASA’s Management of the Mobile Launcher 2 Project

Keith’s note: NASA says that Starliner will return to Earth without any crew. Butch and Suni will stay on ISS until early 2025 when the Crew 9 on a SpaceX Dragon will bring them home. That’s three times that Boeing’s Starliner has flown and each mission has had problems – two of the missions have had mission-altering safety issues. And of course no one has been cited as being at fault. That will likely change when the inevitable congressional hearings occur. Did the post-Columbia safety culture at NASA work? Yes. Full stop. Did contractor oversight by NASA and contractor performance by Boeing work? You tell me. For the same program SpaceX did everything nearly flawlessly with Dragon years before and a $billion+ less than Boeing. Bill Nelson says that NASA will be flying astronauts on Starliner again. Well, it’s easy to punt and say that now since that decision will be made after the election and regardless of who wins Nelson will probably not be making that call. That said, at what point does NASA give up? One has to wonder whether Starliner will ever fly again with – or without – humans. Three strikes and … Update: I spoke about this with LBC Radio in the UK [audio], on Deutsche Welle TV at 4:00 pm EDT [audio] and again at 7:00 pm EDT [audio] and was on CGTN TV at 5:00 pm EDT [audio]. Videos below.

Keith’s note: I was watching Sen. Tammy Duckworth speak at the Democratic National Convention on Tuesday night and had a flashback. In August 1980 I was working on Gov. Jerry Brown’s presidential campaign. Among many other things I did, I was his sign language interpreter – which is what I did for a living prior to joining his campaign.

Keith’s note: Wednesday morning I was on CNN talking about the latest news – or rather lack thereof – regarding the ongoing Boeing Starliner saga. NASA held a media update today – except there was no actual “news”. All we heard from them was “yea, they’re still up there. We’ll get back to you” And yes, I did make a reference to the opening of “Gilligan’s Island” on CNN. [Audio]. I was also on CGTN [Audio], Deutsche Welle [Audio], and BBC World Service talking about Starliner during the day. Thursday update: And I just did a radio interview on Starliner with W Radio (with an excellent Spanish interpreter!) and they have a 33 million+ global reach.

Bill Nye “The Science Guy” Joins Astronaut John Grunsfeld and Other Space Luminaries to Launch Space Cadets 4 Harris with Virtual Fundraiser. Congressional candidate George Whitesides, former NASA administrator and astronaut Charlie Bolden, Republican NASA Administrator Sean O’Keefe, Star Trek actor Robert Picardo, aerospace exec Lauren Lyons, private astronaut Sirisha Bandla among others launching Space Cadets 4 Harris on Thursday. The Space Cadets 4 Harris initiative, created by former NASA Astronaut John Grunsfeld, today announced it will host a star-studded, space and science themed virtual fundraising event on Thursday, August 15 at 8:00 pm EST with all proceeds benefiting the Harris-Walz Presidential Campaign.

“Using seismic activity to probe the interior of Mars, geophysicists have found evidence for a large underground reservoir of liquid water — enough to fill oceans on the planet’s surface. The data from NASA’s Insight lander allowed the scientists to estimate that the amount of groundwater could cover the entire planet to a depth of between 1 and 2 kilometers, or about a mile. While that’s good news for those tracking the fate of water on the planet after its oceans disappeared more than 3 billion years ago, the reservoir won’t be of much use to anyone trying to tap into it to supply a future Mars colony. It’s located in tiny cracks and pores in rock in the middle of the Martian crust, between 11.5 and 20 kilometers (7 to 13 miles) below the surface. Even on Earth, drilling a hole a kilometer deep is a challenge. The finding does pinpoint another promising place to look for life on Mars, however, if the reservoir can be accessed. For the moment, it helps answer questions about the geological history of the planet.” More: There Are Oceans Of Water On Mars. They’re Just Too Deep To Tap. Update:

NASA’s Management of Space Launch System Block 1B Development, NASA OIG: “Quality control issues at Michoud are largely due to the lack of a sufficient number of trained and experienced aerospace workers at Boeing. To mitigate these challenges, Boeing provides training and work orders to its employees. Considering the significant quality control deficiencies at Michoud, we found these efforts to be inadequate. For example, during our visit to Michoud in April 2023, we observed a liquid oxygen fuel tank dome – a critical component of the SLS Core Stage 3 – segregated and pending disposition on whether and how it can safely be used going forward due to welds that did not meet NASA specifications. According to NASA officials, the welding issues arose due to Boeing’s inexperienced technicians and inadequate work order planning and supervision. The lack of a trained and qualified workforce increases the risk that Boeing will continue to manufacture parts and components that do not adhere to NASA requirements and industry standards. We project SLS Block 1B costs will reach approximately $5.7 billion before the system is scheduled to launch in 2028. This is $700 million more than NASA’s 2023 Agency Baseline Commitment, which established a cost and schedule baseline at nearly $5 billion. EUS development accounts for more than half of this cost, which we estimate will increase from an initial cost of $962 million in 2017 to nearly $2.8 billion through 2028. Boeing’s delivery of the EUS to NASA has also been delayed from February 2021 to April 2027, and when combined with other factors, suggests the September 2028 Artemis IV launch date could be delayed as well. Factors contributing to these cost increases and schedule delays include redirection of EUS funds to the core stage during Artemis I production, changing Artemis mission assignments, maintaining an extended workforce 7 years more than planned, manufacturing issues, and supply chain challenges.”

NASA official acknowledges internal “disagreement” on safety of Starliner return, Ars Technica: “Boeing engineers are advocating for flying Starliner as is, that enough is known about the problem that failures will not occur during the vehicle’s return to Earth. However, during meetings of key engineers at NASA known as the “Program Control Board” this week, there was no agreement that this so-called flight rationale was enough to fly crew on the vehicle. “We heard from a lot of folks that had concerns,” Bowersox said. “We heard enough voices that the decision was not clear at the Program Control Board.” Given that NASA will soon decide whether to fly crew on Starliner, the Boeing team has about a week to convince the NASA team of Starliner’s safety before a potential switch to Crew Dragon.”

Jon McBride (1943–2024), NASA astronaut and space shuttle pilot: “Jon McBride was a NASA astronaut, test pilot, and space shuttle pilot who flew the first-ever mission with seven people on board has died of Alzheimer’s disease and cancer at the age of 80.”

Keith’s note: From NASA OIG: “We assessed the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope project, a NASA observatory designed to explore dark energy, exoplanets, and infrared astrophysics, to determine if NASA is managing the risks and mitigating future challenges with the Roman telescope while meeting its cost, schedule, and technological goals.” Full report: Audit of the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope Project

Keith’s note: From GAO: “Two pieces of NASA’s Gateway program—the first space station to orbit the moon—are scheduled to launch together in 2027. NASA is taking steps to ensure Gateway will be ready. For example, the program plans to update a cost and schedule analysis that will help determine whether the launch date is feasible. But this program also faces some significant challenges. For example, the mass of the pieces is too high. So, if it isn’t reduced, they might not be able to reach the correct lunar orbit once launched. We recommended documenting the Gateway program’s plans to address this issue to help ensure it can meet the planned launch date.” Full report: Artemis Programs: NASA Should Document and Communicate Plans to Address Gateway’s Mass Risk

Keith’s note: Lorna Onizuka has died. I met her several times when I was on the board of directors of the Challenger Center for Space Science Education. She was very nice and gracious. Ad Astra Lorna.

Keith’s note: I will make this simple: did NASA find clear evidence of life on Mars? No. Did NASA find an interesting rock feature that might signal or indicate that there was once life on Mars? Yes. Is this a final answer? No. Not by any means. Much, much more work needs to be done. That is one of the main reasons why advanced in situ instrumentation on landers and eventual sample return missions are needed. Just remember: on Earth there are many things that look like life that are not – and there are many things that are alive that look like rocks. And that’s on Earth. What happens on Mars may be totally different. Or not. Let’s go find out more. Full story: Mars Perseverance Rover Imagery Of A Rock With Possible Biosignatures

Keith’s note: So … his is certainly trending right now ….

Source: PSI Planetary Exploration Newsletter: “As many of you will have seen, earlier this week NASA made the shocking decision to cancel the VIPER project following completion of the rover’s build. It now faces the prospect of being dismembered. We have organized an open letter to Congress from the wider science community asking them to refuse any request to cancel this mission, by ensuring that it continues to be included as a budgetary line-item. You can find this letter here: https://forms.gle/XDSzTra4NPSS1VC27 If you have any questions, please feel free to contact the letter’s organizers, Dr Benjamin Fernando ([email protected]) or Dr Parvathy Prem ([email protected]) who have organized this letter in a personal capacity.”

Keith’s note: I am on hiatus for a week or three in the woods here and there. Even If I post something once in a while, I am still on hiatus. So …

Astronaut Joe Engle, pioneer of winged spacecraft — Kansas native, dies at 91, JC Post. Ad Astra

Keith’s note: On this day in 1997 the film “Contact” hit theaters etc. I wrote something in 1997 about a visit I made to West Virginia, Green Bank, hanging out with Jill Tarter, and driving around radio telescopes in a diesel taxi cab. I am posting this from a climber’s hostel in New Hampshire which seems appropriate. “Going Off Source: Time Away With SETI In West Virginia“.

Keith’s note: It would seem that none of International Space Station Research & Development Conference (ISSRDC) will be webcast. No mention whatsoever is made on their website. No mention of any webcast is made at NASA.gov either. NASA recently issued a contract to destroy the International Space Station. Not even bothering to webcast this event – which supposedly exists to promote and explain all that the ISS has done – is too much for CASIS or NASA to bother setting up. No one at NASA seems to care since they all have Artemis Go Fever. As such, the 300+ million U.S. taxpayers who put billions into this amazing resource aren’t entitled to learn what NASA did with all their money or why ISS needs to be splashed. The scheduled death of the ISS is not even on the meeting’s agenda. And of course, as Artemis delays mount, NASA will come back for more money without ever truly explaining why they are throwing this astonishing resource away or why they need to build another space station out near the Moon to support missions are moving ever further into the future. And then NASA’s Administrator has the audacity to whine and complain that China may beat the U.S. back to the Moon. DUH, Bill. China has a plan and they stick to it. NASA does not. Update: CASIS sent me a note: “While we are not actively promoting the livestream component to the conference yet (similar to last year), it will be made open to the public during the event. We will promote the livestream component for those not able to physically attend in a media advisory prior to the conference. Additionally, there will be social pushes during the event driving the public to the livestream.”