Going In Circles Again: America Will Abandon Human Lunar Exploration - And Much More

Report: Obama Budget to Scrub Moon Mission, CBS News

"Instead of blasting off to the moon, NASA's hopes for a manned mission there have been blasted to pieces, sources in the White House, Congress and NASA tell the Orlando Sentinel."

White House won't fund NASA moon program, Orlando Sentinel via LA Times

"When the White House releases its budget proposal Monday, there will be no money for the Constellation program that was to return humans to the moon by 2020. The Ares I rocket that was to replace the space shuttle to ferry humans to space will be gone, along with money for the Ares V cargo rocket that was to launch the fuel and supplies needed to return to the moon. There will be no lunar landers, no moon bases. "We certainly don't need to go back to the moon," one administration official said."

NASA to Review Human Spaceflight, NY Times

"Michael D. Griffin, the former NASA administrator who oversaw the creation of Constellation and remains a staunch defender, said that would be a mistake. "I can't imagine the situation where the United States doesn't want to have end-to-end capability to reach the lunar surface," Dr. Griffin said."

Flat budget, limited goals may be in NASA's future, Houston Chronicle

"Far from getting the $3 billion more each year that experts suggest NASA needs for meaningful human spaceflight, President Barack Obama is expected to offer little new money to the space agency when his budget is released Monday. Although there's no official word from the White House or NASA, space policy analysts and legislators say it's likely the space agency's budget will remain "flat" for the coming year, potentially leaving humans stuck in near-Earth orbit for the foreseeable future."

Keith's note: NASA has just spent more than half a decade telling Americans that we are all going back to the Moon - and why. In the process, billions of dollars have been spent. Children have grown up being told this again and again - just like my generation heard in the 1960s. Now this is being taken away from them. I can only imagine how my generation would have reacted. It is one thing to alter a plan, change rockets, etc. But it is quite another to abandon the plan altogether.

The ISS has great potential - much of it yet to be realized. But much of that untapped potential was preparing humans to go out into the solar system. Now those destinations have evaporated and have been replaced with the elusive and ill-defined "Flexible Path".

How is NASA going to explain this about face? Answer - they won't - because they can't. They are incapable of admitting mistakes or even stating the obvious. What I really want to see is how NASA attempts to explain this bait and switch to all of the students it has sought to inspire since the VSE was announced. A "Summer of Innovation" centered around a stale and contracting space program seems somewhat contradictory to me.

How will NASA - and the White House - explain the use of vast sums of taxpayer money to bail out the decisions of incompetent financial institutions on Wall Street and yet not be able to find a paltry fraction of that amount to bail out the future of space exploration that future Americans will benefit from - and participate in.

I just spent a few days wandering around Yosemite looking up at vast expanses of rock such as El Capitan - things that humans have surmounted - and yet still inspire later generations to attempt. Now I have to fly home and witness the slow motion dismemberment of NASA's human exploration program. You will pardon me if I fell like I have been whip lashed.

There are two options open to those who wish to explore the solar system - personally. One is to ignore NASA altogether and promote commercial space. The other is to totally overhaul NASA once and for all. Despite its collection of incredibly skilled and motivated people, NASA is also a bumbling behemoth that cannot get out of its own way. Personally, I think the best approach is to pursue both.

But something needs to change. Clearly the status quo has utterly failed and yet another generation is at risk of missing out on the chance to personally explore space.

It is my understanding that Charlie Bolden worked very, very hard on getting more for NASA. So the blame for these cutbacks should not be laid on his shoulders. He does have a chance, however, to use this opportunity to truly reconfigure the agency in response to this slap from the White House. The last time NASA was in this situation in the mid-1990s, its Administrator simply did not understand that his people were his greatest asset. Charlie Bolden does not have that character flaw.

NASA is simply going to have to do more with less. NASA has little choice at this point than to look for the silver lining in all of this. In so doing, Bolden's people - all of them - contractor, civil servants, and others - need to step up to the task of finding this silver lining - or get out of the way and find something else to do so that others can fix things.

Keith's update: This reader note says it all: "Tomorrow the President and Vice President will be together in Florida to announce they are awarding $2.5 billion (of the $8 billion federal dollars slated for similar projects) to build a high-speed rail system from the Tampa airport to Disney World. It will help people visit entertainment venues at Disney World (Space Mountain), Epcot (Spaceship Earth), Universal Studios (A Day at The Park with Barney)."

To be certain a job is a job - but I wonder how well these new jobs will offset the old jobs being lost in the KSC area. Will workers be able to move from one to another? I doubt it. Also, the fact that the Obama Administration seems to be more interested in moving tourists to see fantasy depictions of space exploration as opposed to doing the real thing speaks volumes. What sort of message is this sending?


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that's too bad. it's unfortunate that the hope of exploring space is dying this week as we remember Apollo 1, Challenger, and Columbia. but it was predictable. When you start off with the usual politcal game of saying we're going to do it as cheap as possible and you cozy up to key politicians with stuff in their states/districts it's bound to come apart eventually. Add to that a general terror at NASA of actually trying to take a risk (political or techinical) and put the hardware out for real competition. So you simply come up with a story that equals ATK + Rocketdyne for all the main propulsion without competition. Which of course means you've fixed your architecture without any actual design thought. Unfortunately this lead to a design certain to not succeed for the advertised price right at the time an extreme lefty is in the white house to change the course to climate change research even though that is a demonstrable hoax. but it's good lefty talk. and no spaceX isn't the alternative. the alternative was to come up with an RP/H2 architecture and maybe booster solids maybe not. put the whole thing out for competitive bid and spend the same amount that's been spent to actually get a good system. not waste time and money propping up ATK's SRM line or PW-R's h2 only approach

Let's be absolutely clear about what this is: it is the end, not of the Moon mission, but of government operated human spaceflight. Kill the program of record, kill shuttle, promise a future rocket at some later date, then kill that in a couple of years. NASA will be a glorified NOAA conducting Earth science (MTPE II) and flying a few astronauts to ISS until it too can be killed and buried.

This outcome is what everyone, everyone should have expected from an urban, liberal Democrat--but what many of the people on this site who wanted to support Obama let themselves believe was not going to occur. Destroying NASA has been a goal of that wing of the party for decades.

Obama was clear this goal was also his instinct when his very first space proposal was to delay Constellation and shift the money to education. And yet, people let Obamabots blow smoke up their butts that he wasn't going to do it, that the initial policy statement was a mistake, that their eloquence had convinced the Administration to see the light. NASA's fate was sealed on election night, 2008.

Did NASA and Griffin bring some of this on themselves--of course. They made the execution of NASA easy. Maybe Obama would have had to stay with a program of record if some metal were being bent.

And don't think it stops with manned spaceflight. The animus that Obama feels towards "wasted" money in space will next be visited upon the unmanned portion of the budget. Mark my words.

I am actually amazed that Constellation and the ESAS strategy lasted as long as it did. After the first year and especially after the ESAS course was set, support from the Bush Administration was tepid, at best. That was a sure sign that Constellation's days were numbered. Who would have thought that this effort would have enough political inertia to last another 4 years?! Incredible.

If anything, Constellation is a grand testament to the powers of salesmanship and calculated political advocacy, even when there is lackluster support from the populace.

Instead of going in circles, we could have been going in spirals. Steidle was right.

Tomorrow the President and Vice President will be together in Florida to announce they are awarding $2.5 billion (of the $8 billion federal dollars slated for similar projects) to build a high-speed rail system from the Tampa airport to Disney World. It will help people visit entertainment venues at Disney World (Space Mountain), Epcot (Spaceship Earth), Universal Studios (A Day at The Park with Barney).

I don't recall that the moon mission was deemed unaffordable. I guess you could say that if you don't want to spend any money on it.

It was underfunded and also assumed that the station was eliminated in 2015, but that was to save a few billion a year. Or the program could have been delayed some to help the cash flow. But Obama is not delaying it, he's terminating it.

Of course Congress has a say in it and they have said nothing gets canceled until they concur so we shall see how this plays out.

I think this is what Anne Spudis may have been getting at as well...but the President may have effectively bought back any ill-will from Florida with his high-speed rail project (and $8 Billion what comes with it)

http://www.bizjournals.com/orlando/stories/2010/01/25/daily19.html

I think the high-speed rail will be a colossal waste of tax dollars but many would probably argue that going to the Moon would be as well (not me personally, mind you)

I'm not correct often, and many times when I am, I wish I wasn't. I saw this coming. I've been calling it sicne the 2008 election campaign (and earlier even). All sorts of people have been calling for scrapping Ares I, scrapping Ares/Orion altogether, changing it this way and that way - ALL to suit their own personal, parochial self-interest. I've been saying that a lack of support for Constellation, especially lobbying for killing Ares I would, in the end, result in the death of the entire human exploration initiative. VERY FEW people ever stood up to support the effort or long-range vision (or claimed they supported the Vision but not the means to achieve it). Those who did stand up and fight for the program were demonized, villified and outright insulted from all corners of the so-called pro-space community. They (we) have been lone wolves crying in the night desperately trying to save humanity's future exploring the Solar System. And we have lost the fight it seems. Unfortunately, that also means all of the human race has lost, lost its future - at least for decades to come. I could be smug and say "I told you so", but the urge to just cry is stronger than that. All I can really say is that those who have blasted Constellation for the last 5 years - for changes, cancel this, modify that - are getting exactly what they fought to achive. Constellation will be gone. Congratulations.

One of Americas greatest strength has been it ability to make dreams into reality. The end of man space flight and the chance to explore the stars is a dream that has pushed science and technology forward in this country. It has provided America with advantages that has help maintained our lead in many fields of science. While we are "saving" money other countries such as China will continue the dream of manned exploration and will reap the benefits of it. In the 60s we had dreams and the desire to act on them now we sit and wait for other to do it. When did we turn into a country that that has no dreams and no desire to be the best at anything?

I knew this day was coming, so let me get it out of the way: I told you so. And as it turns out, my father's guidance on politicians is once again validated: Pay attention to the first thing they say, for that is what they will do. Remember Obama's first take on NASA? That is what he is doing.

Steidle was indeed right. And it is much too late to heed his guidance now, sadly. They had the right guy, and they pissed him off and fired him. That's NASA for ya.

Well, no really big surprise here. With ISS almost certain to be extended to 2020 and Altair de-funded, a lunar landing before 2020 was always an unlikely prospect.

However, I am very concerned about the way the BEO launcher and mission modules are being deferred. That makes them cancellation fodder and would leave NASA with nothing but the commercial crew launcher and the EELVs (optimistically, each able to lift in the region of 30,000kg at most). The whole point of the DIRECT-Jupiter system was to get NASA’s new LV on the pad as soon as possible so that development costs are reduced by using extant shuttle infrastructure. With HLV development deferred until much later, then these advantages are lost and the HLV program gets a lot more expensive. Infrastructure will need to be rebuilt and skills re-learnt.

A Jupiter-130 with Orion, as it does not need an upper stage, could be on the pad by 2014/15, ensuring continuity of operations and skills as well as a vehicle far more capable than the aenemic Ares-I. The DIRECT-Jupiter system also allows for phased development – the single-stage LEO version first and then start developing the upper stage/EDS and BEO mission modules AFTER Orion is operational to the ISS.

The current plan seems to be to repeat all the conceptual mistakes of CxP with new vehicles. A longer and/or more protratcted HLV development program means that, like the Apollo-Shuttle gap, too many skilled personnel would be lost. It would also mean that the ISS’s survival will depend on nothing happening that would require shuttle-like lifting capability to fix.

If you need a buzz-phrase, try: “An HLV is for ISS maintenance, not just BEO”.

Ray, I couldn't agree more... sadly. And I guess we know the real reason Lori Garver was adamantly against (Ares I supporter) Gen. Lester Lyles for the Administrator position. I will give Mr. Bolden the benefit of the doubt, although I've never had a very good feeling about him - but he couldn't ever be as awful Dan Goldin or (Gads!) William Graham. I do, however, think that Mr. Bolden should tender a letter of resignation immediately upon release of the budget request and state that it is unacceptable and that he will not be the Administrator who oversees the dismantling of the Agency. I think that would be the strongest signal he could give.

This all reminds me of William Golding's book "Lord of the Flies." "Kill the beast! Cut his throat! Spill his blood!" The anti-Ares movement is frothing at the mouth. Enter deus ex machina... The Captain: "Who's boss here?" Now what do we do?

I posted here many moons ago when Obama was elected "Goodnight moon". Before that, during the campaign, I pointed out that Obama had said that he wanted to "redirect" NASA. Before that I railed against all the naysayers and the fact that their hatred of Mike Griffin was counterproductive to getting out of LEO. Before that I posted that the Constellation haters' refusal to unite in support of the program would give the politicians an excuse to use the money elsewhere. Before that I was a regular poster against the real enemies of human space exploration which are the politicians and how they had made NASA the beast that it is by the balkanization of a once great engineering organization.

In spite of my earlier postings, I still hope I'm wrong. We can spend our tax money on rails to Disney World but we can't spend it on the future? I guess Mickey Mouse IS the future just as it was when we left the moon in 1972. Thanks to all that made this moment possible.

Count me with those who feared this was coming based on Obama's first position on NASA and HSF - redirect the money to education.

I guess the inspirational part of the president's education plan is to excite young people to study math, science, and engineering by having them dream of the adventure of building new satellites to measure the Earth's temperature, or more exciting still, maybe invent a better windmill. Our universities had better get ready for a flood of students clamoring for advanced degrees in science and technology.

What a leader, what vision, what "hope"! Well, I guess the end of American leadership in human space exploration does represent "change".

It wasn't NASA but President Bush who decided we were going to go back to the Moon, and then he had to find and put in place a NASA administrator who supported that decision. The NASA message followed since that is what they were directed to do.

What most of the proponents of the alternatives to Constellation don't realize is that if we don't have the money for development of a launcher (in this case Ares) we won't have the money for any other launcher. That's the fault of the politicians..not NASA, not Griffin, not Ares and not the tooth fairey.

That's the message that you guys are missing. Augustine said that the POR was underfunded which is no surprise to those of us who have been paying attention to the last 5 or 6 budget cycles. Yes Ares is overbudget but only because of underfunding or said another way they have been expending funds that have not been appropriated. Would you guys have been any happier had the in service date been stretched to 2025 so that it wouldn't have been overbudget? No you would have continued to compare apples to oranges and claim that another paper laucher could have been fielded faster. Sorry, any plan would have taken the same amount of time, money and effort given the political and monetary realities we have faced over the past 6 years.

I'm still amused at all the people that think that because of the demise of Ares that somehow all that money that is insufficient for Ares is really going to plan, buy and operate anything else. It may do just that but not in the time frame you guys think. Engineering development doesn't work that way. Cheap, fast and good....pick two, you can't have the other one.

Ares has it's problems (all problems can be solved given the funds and time) and so would every other plan out there.

"How is NASA going to explain this about face?"
WHAT? Come on, Keith! Why should NASA have to explain? Excuse me, but is this not President Obama's decision? He's glad to give billions of taxpayer dollars for bailout - but an organization that produces technical spinoffs every year, one that has an extremely small budget .... WHACK IT!


YIKES.....
wow..speechless.. Curious to see what he will actually say about space... That high speed rail system isn't what i would spend the money on..
I believe Commercial spaceflight is the way to go but to stop so fast before you give time for commercial to help out is silly!!!!
lets hope EVERYONE buys a Tesla so Elon can make some serious cash so he can put it into Spacex ...
jb

Are we just going to take this?! There are many people who will stand and fight this but what they need is direction! Keith, you have contacts, we need to get a core group together that will outline strategy to fight for American HSF! I would do it but frankly I have no contacts. I'm readyLet's get this started. I'm calling Barbara Mikulski's office now to register my complaint. There are many in the House and Senate that we can rely on to help.
We have to put our petty bickering aside and act now!

Regarding the rail plan in Florida, unfortunately, there have been no studies done to my knowledge that show that such a system is economically viable anytime soon. If started, it will probably be something else for the taxpayers to bail out.

Um... No. Completely wrong.

NASA can't afford the (expensive and low-performing) Ares-I. However, it could afford a cheaper and higher-performing LV. The problem is more one that NASA is still pursuing its dream of a 150t+ LV via the "small crew taxi and large cargo launcher" paradigm.

It is noted above but is worth saying again: Obama may as well kiss Florida goodbye when it comes to the next election. I suppose he has forgotten or is overlooking the number of electoral votes Florida has, and how it has been key to winning the presidency the last 20-30 years.

While some might think that the space program means little to the Sunshine State, they should also realize that Florida is almost a perfect 50/50 split between Democrats and Republicans, and that the so-called I-4 corridor is often the key battleground to winning or losing the state. KSC is part of that area.

It will not be only KSC workers who suffer when the site is shut down (let's call it what it is, a shutdown) it will be the businesses that support them, the government that depends on their tax money, the tourism that will no longer come there and so forth and so on. In short, Obama's decision is going to visit ruin upon the area.

He came to KSC and totally lied to the workers at KSC, looking them in the eyes all the while.

His move is foolish and let us hope that Congress stops him from having his way.

There's plenty of money to develop the Altair lunar lander-- especially if the $2 billion a year ISS program is terminated after 2015. But you can't terminate the ISS if you want to give corporate welfare to the emerging commercial manned space flight industry. Without the ISS, these private companies can't get government contracts to shuttle NASA astronauts to the space station. And that appears to be our priority.

But the fact that the Obama administration is apparently still going to develop a heavy lift vehicle tells you that he has pretty much endorsed the Flexible Path. The Flexible Path means that Obama doesn't have to commit the US to any destination since most of the Flexible Path scenarios take place 15 to 25 years in the future. So the Obama administration is just committing itself to developing the HLV hardware and passing the buck to future administrations to decide how they use it.

So Flexible Path advocates appear to have gotten what they wanted! So why aren't they happy!

Marcel F. William

So what do we do now folks?

The "I told you so's" have been said, the great disappointments have been expressed in this new young President.

So what? were back where we started.

Ares would have been better then.... NOTHING.


What do we do now?


Take it laying down and roll up in a ball sniveling about our stolen future and the system is so broken there is no solution?

Or do we fight?

Look, Obama doesn't always get his way ok?
We learned that very recently right?


Read that again.... OBAMA DOESN'T ALWAYS GET HIS WAY.


FIGHT FOR NASA!

FIGHT FOR A SPACE PROGRAM THAT INSPIRES!

It starts with us, each of us here.

I am immediately donating to NSS today, and time to push hard with letters and phone calls.
This isn't the space program the Apollo 1, Challenger and Columbia crew died for.

We owe it to those that have fallen to fight for what AMERICA DESERVES! We owe it to the children that have been told we had plotted out a future beyond earth for them.

FIGHT!

"It does not require a majority to prevail, but rather an irate, tireless minority keen to set brush fires in people's minds." -Samuel Adams

We have allies in congress that will FIGHT!


At least I will be able to look myself in the mirror knowing I did all I could.


"This outcome is what everyone, everyone should have expected from an urban, liberal Democrat..."

What a completely false, ridiculous statement. Fact is, as has been mentioned many times here, VSE has been underfunded since the beginning even though conservatives controlled much of Congress and White House for nearly a decade. When it came to homeland security and defense they spent like drunken sailors. If anything we could blame the fall of US space exploration on unfunded mandates by conservatives!

If we want a human mission to the Moon, Mars or anywhere else, it is really pretty simple: Accept that astronauts not only may die, they should die from time to time. When they return to being test pilots and taking risk, we benefit in many ways: First, this reduces the immense overhead of endless safety reviews where each board member adds requirements to a design throughout its development cycle. Next time you are in a review add up the salaries of the people there and the time required from the troops to prepare for it. A few reviews are a good thing, ~100 reviews of various sorts for even a small project are not. It is even worse for man-rated systems. Second, if we are willing to accept the risk of loss of life and mission failure, it reduces requirements on system redundancy. Having to maintain five general purpose computers on the Shuttle, each capable of flying it, is but one example of many. With reduced redundancy, you have a lighter, cheaper system. That system is easier to manage, requiring less managers and less configuration control, thus saving more money. If you can make a system capable of getting to flight during the term of a single administration and priced so it is in the budgetary noise, so much the better. Third, if the ride is perceived as dangerous, the public *will* get interested. We all glance at the wreck on the highway. Kids engage when they think a job is dangerous – they want to be race-car drivers, Olympic snowboarders, firemen, not accountants. All the PR and Twitter feeds in the world won’t make the public connect without this element of danger lurking in the background. Risk is sexy. NASA should use it.

Unfortunately, if it is true that Obama has embraced the 'Flexible Path', then there is going to be a huge backlash from the Senate and the House. And this backlash could result in going right back to the overly expensive Ares I/Ares V architecture.

And trying to appease Floridians with a train to Disneyland instead of an architecture for the nation to establish the first permanent settlements on the Moon is an insult to the American people. And yes, I voted for Obama! But this is stupid!

Marcel F. Williams

Good riddance, the rockets were never necessary in the first place and they would be a major obstacle to commercial development of space.

Those of you who weren't just rocket fanboys but would like to see exploration, commercial development of space or both may want to hope for:

* redundant commercial crew rotation capability on all suitable US launchers: Delta, Atlas and Falcon
* a long term future in LEO, preferably by renting a Bigelow hab as an addition to and eventual replacement of the ISS
* reusable lunar landers and their Flexible Path precursors
* small ion drive tugs for transporting propellant cost effectively

in that order of importance.

Note that all of that can be done with existing technology and can be improved with more R&D. Pin your hopes on JSC, Glenn and commercial players. Get rid of MSFC, Michoud and Launch Complex 39 in Florida.

It may be your last hope for seeing either exploration or commercial development of space in your lifetime.

I think that most of you really thought that the Augustine Commission was going to revitalize the manned space program. (I never did, we have been studying endlessly what to do for decades with out the guts to fund things properly.)

Then you guys went off on a rabid anti Ares 1 and V rant.

Well, now you got what you wished for

no Ares 1, no Ares V...

no manned space program...

sending people to the ISS doesn't count, not in my book,
it is tremendously boring, we are no better than we were with Skylab in 1972

Didn't you Ares-bashers ever ever think that we could end up with nothing... zilch... nada...

a major mistake not getting behind the Constellation Program.

In the time takes to write some of the posts in this thread.........

I have contacted my congressman, both senators and the white house and put my money where my mouth is and donated to NSS.


I will even try to contact Tom Hanks, as such a high profile person could do wonders for public support.


See, it isn't that hard is it?

I don't care if it is Ares or whatever, this is for robust support of NASA and goals worthy of this nation.

The nations that lead on the frontiers, determine the course of human history.

Just take some minutes of the day to fight for NASA is all I ask. Blogging ain't gonna cut it now.

I'm also curious what will happen to DoD and the SBIR program.

Not sure why people think there will be a commercial crew vehicle.

It causes me intense pain to say anything even slightly favorable about B.O. or anything he does...but I'm glad to see Constellation go. It was not better than nothing. No part of it was better than nothing. (Not that NASA would ever have carried it to completion anyway.) If we're not going to build real spaceships that can do things that are worth doing, let's stop wasting money on rockets only slightly more advanced than the ones that were under development at Peenemunde, and using them to do things we did 40 years ago.

By the way, I'm well aware that B.O.'s motives are completely different from mine, and are beneath contempt. I want a real space program; he wants no space program. But I'd rather have no space program than one that does nothing worth doing.

"Didn't you Ares-bashers ever ever think that we could end up with nothing... zilch... nada..."

Why yes, actually we did. That would have been the result of continuing with the orthodox CxP - A ten-year development program to produce a rocket that can just about launch a stripped-down Orion into a sub-orbital trajectory... that gets cancelled before it flies due to massive operational costs. I actually thought that Congress would force through 'stay the course' with the resulting disaster for US-indigenous HSF so many years down the line that it wouldn't be possible to rectify it.

At least this way there is a chance of human-rated EELVs that could carry the Orion as well as commercial crew vehicles. So, really, we aren't ending up with 'zilch... nada...' at all. Just small and LEO-oriented unless money for the common upper stage and propellent transfer emerges.

Of course, it will be the end of NASA as we have known it but, given how utterly it has failed since the Shuttle? Well, large changes were going to be necessary no matter what path forward is taken.

This is a big development and nothing is certain at this point. There will be a royal battle with congress and I'm not going to predict how it will play out but it's going to be messy.

A few thoughts...

We will always need access to LEO. Commercial providers are the ideal way to accomplish this. If a viable commercial sector can be built providing crew and cargo transport then it will benefit the exploration and exploitation of space in the long run.

Terminating the Space Station in 2015 is not and never has been a real option. It would be just plain stupid from a logical and political point of view. It would also severely harm relations with our international partners and prevent future joint endeavors.

The United States does not need to have a complete end to end space transportation system. Space exploration now requires international cooperation due to the excessively high costs. That is not going to change. For partnerships to work they have to be fair and meaningful to all members. Assigning portions of the system to partners makes perfect sense financially and politically and allows each member to utilize their expertise to make a real contribution to the total effort. Everyone must work together to achieve the final goal and everyone has a significant stake in the outcome. That drives results. Without substantial international cooperation, long term manned exploration of space is doomed to LEO.

The last sentence in the CBS story got my attention...

"The budget, according to one administration official quoted, will tell Congress that NASA won't be able to design programs just to create jobs in their districts. "That's the view of the president," the official said."

It seems that someone had recognized a significant source of trouble and waste at NASA. Can anything be done about it? It's doubtful without a total reorganization of NASA and I don't think Obama has the will or political capital to push that through. I certainly don't expect Congress to care one bit about what the White House thinks about their practices so nothing is likely to get solved.

One other thing worth mentioning is this story I saw today from the BBC...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8483787.stm

If the United States decides not to lead, we will end up following while other develop the expertise and technologies that will enable them to reap the riches of the solar system.

"This outcome is what everyone, everyone should have expected from an urban, liberal Democrat"

If Bush had allocated more funding, we'd be much further along with Ares, and we wouldn't be talking about this.

" I can only imagine how my generation would have reacted. It is one thing to alter a plan, change rockets, etc. But it is quite another to abandon the plan altogether."

I have, for the last 15 years, tried my best to be honest with the young. I have been telling the young that there will not be a lunar program even though I had built my life around helping to make it happen just in case it does.

I really, truely, greatly wish I am and had been wrong. But, alas, pessimism wins out again. D&(* I#

"All I can really say is that those who have blasted Constellation for the last 5 years - for changes, cancel this, modify that - are getting exactly what they fought to achive. Constellation will be gone. Congratulations."

Right on. Everyone's an armchair rocket scientist. People latch on to one priority for HSF and blind themselves to the other priorities. Some think cost should be king, others think we need to minimize the gap, yet others think we must provide support to get commercial spaceflight going... and these are all conflicting priorities! So of course the PoR gets criticized by everyone who feels their priority isn't reflected, which ends up damaging HSF in the long run. Thanks guys.

" I can only imagine how my generation would have reacted. It is one thing to alter a plan, change rockets, etc. But it is quite another to abandon the plan altogether."

I have, for the last 15 years, tried my best to be honest with the young. I have been telling the young that there will not be a lunar program even though I had built my life around helping to make it happen just in case it does.

I really, truely, greatly wish I am and had been wrong. But, alas, pessimism wins out again. D&(* I#

Ben the Space Brit... it is ZILCH, nothing and I'lltell you why. ISS is important, but what most of us hunger for is EXPLORATION. The human-rated EELV option was never intended to, envisioned to, or capable of doing anything except getting Orion or another capsule into low-Earth orbit. Repeat: the EELV option is only an option for LEO access of a lightweight ISS-only capsul, NOT interplantetary exploration. That's been a given since day 1 of the Augustine Committee and even prior. EELV's can take a capsule to ISS but Orion and an HHLV (Ares V or Ares V-Lite) and Earth-departure stage and lander would be required for doing anything outside LEO and ALL of it is being killed. Everything that could possibly lead to real exploration is being wiped out. The only thing we'll have is a capsule and rocket to go to ISS. Period. No exploration. No feet on the Moon. No landings on Mars. Nothing, zip, zilch, nada. The capsule thing won't even be able to do as much as the shuttle can. It's a Giant Step Backward for Mankind. That's it. Anything less than a program with an end goal of Solar System exploration is just as good/bad as, well, zilch.

The Columbia accident on February 1, 2003 forced the Bush administration to think about what NASA's real mission should be and resulted in the Vision for Space Exploration. It's sadly ironic that on the7th anniversary of teh awful event that sprung hope for human exploration of the Solar System, the Obama administration will release a budget request that end it, permanently, and destroys any hope of space exploration for the forseeable future.

Any ideas thoughts about how Obama's decision is going to impact the manned space centers as far as work goes? Do folks see RIF's/Layoff's?

Since Cx is spread across the agency, I would think JSC would pull that work back to provide work for their own. What is going to be the impact agency wide?

Keith:

Here, here! I could have not said it better.

The US manned space program has been a source of pride and inspiration for almost all Americans for half a decade.

But now, instead, Michelle can finally feel proud to be an American.

Nelson

Also, say what you will about the Cx Architecture, and ESAS, and Ares 1/V designs...I can not image what it must be like to be working on these projects at JSC/MSFC/KSC etc... especially as the WH/OMB fight with Congress on this...egad.

I feel like I should clarify something from my last comment - BOTH the Bush and Obama administrations can take the blame for this, along with Congress and, yes, all of us. We needed/still need to have a united front to fight for exploration but we haven't done our job either. Everyone's wanted "my way or the highway" and what we're getting is a road to nowhere.

Ben the Space Brit wrote

"Of course, it will be the end of NASA as we have known it but, given how utterly it has failed since the Shuttle? Well, large changes were going to be necessary no matter what path forward is taken."

So do you mean the ISS failed? I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with you. But, if the ISS failed, why have a crew launch vehicle at all? Just let the Russians take us until it comes down in 2020.

spacearium, you are not right.

Ares I killed itself. It would leave in a worse situation than we are now.
To quote Bobby Block of the Orlando Sentinel:

"The problem with Ares — as we have consistently reported, as the GAO has found, as the Augustine Committee has found, as the CBO has reported and as NASA internal studies have shown — is that its developmental costs were greater than first proposed and that the technical challenges uncovered as the design matured were driving them up further to the point where the business case for a rocket that can only go to LEO made little sense. To have ended up with a rocket that showed up late and sucked money away from heavy lift to the point that we were looking at the very real possibility of having rockets with nowhere to go because there would be no money to operate them would have been a disaster."

Ares I needed to go. Otherwise we would have be left with a substandard launch vehicle and less money to use it.

Lay the blame squarely where it belongs:

Mike Griffin.

He put his thumb on the scale during ESAS, intimidated any dissent, used his position to threaten careers, and refused to change even when faced with Budget and Technical roadblocks.

Mike Griffin.

The smartest rocket scientist on the planet Earth created an unaffordable and unsustainable Exploration Architecture.

MIKE GRIFFIN!

Here is what President Bush said at the memorial service for the Columbia Astronauts:

"Captain Brown was correct: America's space program will go on. This cause of exploration and discovery is not an option we choose; it is a desire written in the human heart. We are that part of creation which seeks to understand all creation. We find the best among us, send them forth into unmapped darkness, and pray they will return. They go in peace for all mankind, and all mankind is in their debt."

Apparently, President Obama thinks differently about 'America's Space Program will go on'

If these assumptions about the President's "plan" are correct then I am surprised and very disappointed that NASAWatch could twist reason so far as to blame NASA. A man who will spend 200 million to try KSM in New York,more than that to try the burned-belly-bomber, and continue to spend 21% of his budget on the war machine is clearly no smarter, no braver, no more honest,and no more forward-thinking than his predesessor or his Republican opponent. If he does indeed fire the NASA high tech workforce in his quest to create jobs he's going to reveal some deep leadership flaws. Its all about the money and the readers of this tiny blog no know that. Give us what DoD wastes and wrecks and I can send Alice to the Moon to live.

Um...no you're wrong because you forget that the paradigm was founded on the principle of retire the shuttle, use the funding for the development (both which have not happened yet) AND a yearly modest increase in funding for the program. Since there has been no funding increases and certainly a funding decrease (in real dollars) that makes the present program is untenable. FUNDING! Augustine pointed it out and to assume that it's because of Ares I first then Ares V next is rewriting history. Any launch vehicle development program conceived 6 years ago and forced to operate under the lack of commitment from the politicians would find itself at exactly this point. Sorry but the explanation is that simple. It's no different than the crap we went through when we were developing the shuttle.

"I can not image what it must be like to be working on these projects at JSC/MSFC/KSC etc"

At JSC, they're likely upset that space exploration for the next decade probably means they'll be riding in an automated tin can with "SpaceX" stamped on the side.
At KSC, the mood is probably bleaker, since axing Ares 1 and going commercial likely means A LOT more downsizing than currently planned.
At MSFC, we're basically waiting for someone to say "stop work" on Ares 1, toss our drawings, and "start work" on a HLV, (formerly known as Ares V).

For all you Obama supporters, how's that hope and change working now?
I hate to say I told you so, but I did.

I'm going to wait and see what comes out before I fly off the handle, and then I'll fly off the handle.

However, I do want to thank CessnaDriver for the donation to NSS. I would encourage everyone that is not already a member of a space activist organization to please sign up now! Doesn't matter which one, just join.

If you're already a member, please encourage someone you know who is sympathetic to the idea of space exploration to join up. A swelling of membership in space-related organizations is a clear message to national leadership (such as it is) that space is an industry that is important to the citizenry.

If you think talking to your congresscritters will do any good you can sign up for one or more of three political blitzes coming up being sponsored by ProSpace, the Space Exploration Alliance (of which NSS is a member), and the Space Frontier Foundation.

If you want to show the business community that space is serious then go out and rent a Solar-Sci-Fi movie, or buy a (non-franchise) space toy for a child's birthday. Go to the library and start checking out space books, or go to your local bookbox and buy some. Collect the Topps American Heritage Space Heroes trading cards, or pick up some space t-shirts. Screen some space movies with your friends, or throw a space-themed party (Yuri's Night is not too far away...). I'd say subscribe to a magazine, but there's pretty much only astronomy magazines available. All of the good ones like Ad Astra and the Moon Miner's Manifesto (a newsletter) are limited to members.

My concern is that the cuts will be made without providing a clear path forward. Not just by calling on the private sector to step up to the plate, but also by enacting enabling legislation for things like Micro-g Micro-tax, purchase orders for X number of crewed vehicles per year, funding research in microgravity (and Lunar) sciences, and other things that will encourage businesses to actually step up to the plate (and not just talk about it) to transition more space activities to the private sector. The financial industry also needs to put together the means for people to put capital into the space companies that are stepping up to the plate, through investment vehicles like mutual funds.

Without this kind of guidance, the difficult scenarios outlined above will lead to disaster. But with the right incentives we could be unlocking the door to material resources, energy resources, technological resources, and direct benefit to those of us on Earth.

If the US can't pay off it's $12 trillion national debt you are not on a sustainable path even if you go to the moon in the next 15 years. You'd have little money to do anything worthwhile on the moon and push further out after that. Taking money from NASA and spending it on high speed rail and other things that also generate economic growth is what will get you out of this financial mess so you can pay for a long term, sustainable path out into space eventually. It's terribly disappointing that we'll have to patient, but that's the situation. Pain now, gain for the future. Obama's job is to make painful, but right decisions with a broader picture than the dreams of a subset of one generation.

Sure, one counter argument is that cutting the programme will cost growth in Florida etc. and retard future technological progress for various reasons (fewer smart youngsters going into science etc.), which harms long term growth. It looks like he's made a more informed decision than we can that on net balance you'll get greater long term growth by directing limited funds in the way he's reportedly chosen.

Not sure what this has to do with Obama, or McCain if he would have won. I view them both as the messenger. Tax revenues have been slammed because of the economy. Neither of them could have halted that and they would have been in the same position. And, unless revenues increase on way or another, this is just the beginning. So, the republicans and democrats need to create jobs and create revenue at least to stay elected. And it's number of jobs, not quality, that counts. Sorry, I would like to think otherwise but it's not. And it is short term, not long term. So how many low quality jobs does one NASA or commercial crew vehicle employee equal? And yes, there is a technology payoff with NASA or etc. down the road, but not over the next three years.

Obama, or whoever, can say what they want about HSF, it is the economy which will dictate what happens. And how the economy shapes up from here on out is the responsibility of the current White House and Congress. And, I don't think republicans are any better than democrats at this responsibility.

This is not the end of human space flight. Ares I and Ares V are cancelled, as they should be. We will develop a heavy-lift vehicle using Shuttle components to a greater extent than before. We will not waste our time planting flags and making footprints. Anyone who believes that Constellation was actually going to land people on the Moon is completely naive. There is no way in hell that NASA could go back to the Moon and build a permanent base for less than $500 billion. That's about 50 years of HSF funding with inflation. CxP's own estimate for a lunar landing was upwards of $150 billion and that is just to plant a flag. And our estimates for this sort of thing tend to be about 1/3 of actual cost. Building a base would double that, so I could easily see it costing $1 trillion. The only thing CxP was ever going to accomplish was to demonstrate once and for all to the entire world that NASA absolutely is not capable of doing this type of work anymore. I would rather see CxP canceled without replacement than to see NASA waste tens of billions of taxpayer dollars.

What we need is commercial access to space and NASA feeding breakthroughs in technology to that industry. It is time for NASA to get out of the operations business (yes, I work for NASA at an operations center). If you Ares huggers were in charge a century ago, airlines today would be government-owned and flying about 20 flights a day between major cities only for $100,000 per seat.

My word what a lot of hysteria! And hyperbole. Anyone would think the sky was falling.

First off I would like to thank Mike Schriber (January 27, 2010 4:58 PM) a solitary voice of reason amongst the chaos. I agree, this budget is going to be an epochal: my way or the highway moment. Pork was killing NASA (Cholesterol is a steroid!) ... and business as usual is "Not an option." Unlike failure: X-38 (CRV), X-33, ...X-20! If your Congress Critters misbehave I can see not only Leo McGarry in their future but also Sam Seabourn, Josh Lyman and the big guns like CJ and Donna in the mix! Perhaps it's time again for Toby to reveal a secret spare shuttle!

For those of you trying to make serious political points; I would merely say that, from my perspective, America's current financial condition does not support the ESAS style PoR Moondoggle. Instead you will have to Revise the VSE and do more with less. Like all the other space agencies do. Festina lente. Throwing more money at a failing architecture is not the answer and if you get a leaner, meaner NASA out of it. Well that's a bonus.

"sending people to the ISS doesn't count, not in my book," (esmithatty January 27, 2010 4:01 PM )
and
"would, in the end, result in the death of the entire human exploration initiative." (spacearium January 27, 2010 12:57 PM)

Given the choice which would you prefer:

An ISS used as a hub for fuel depot experiments; ion and plasma drive (VASIMR) experiments; SPS beaming experiments; long duration hab experiments; deep space vessel construction and maintenance yard; space tug maintenance yard; launching point for visits to really BIG telescopes looking out (and in) from L1; performing long duration and complex assembly tasks in GEO; welcoming Chinese, Brazilian, Indian, and even (gasp) British Astronauts to the ISS; planning an ISS 2 - possibly at L1 or even in LLO. Planning visits to SEL 1&2, NEOs, Phobos, Venus flyby... AND a vigourous tele-robotic exploration of the Moon. This time with a mind to exploit its new found resources.

Or a go it alone "Boots&Flags" Moon Landing like you did in 1969. But with Palin instead of Nixon.

Even in the 60's Apollo was an aberration, a magnificent aberration I'll grant you but not a sustainable cis-lunar 'highway' to a long term Moon Base.

Sometimes 'less' is MORE. Perhaps this time, instead of Apollo on Steroids, it will be Colliers on Kool-Aid. Like it should have been.

Time to start collecting box tops!

I watched on TV when an American was the first man to step on the moon and now we can't do that anymore. This is what Jesse Jackson said he would do when he ran for the presidency, defund NASA and put it into social programs. This doesn't take into consideration all the science that America gleamed from going to the moon that we use in our lives to day.

“Gentlemen, we just lost the moon.”
James Lovell Apollo 13 CDR

Instead of a high-speed train from Orlando to Tampa, perhaps a high-speed train from KSC to anywhere is in order?

We'll need that high-speed rail to get the heck out of KSC! No pushing please.

I sat in one of the early JSC briefings to NASA HQ where this exploration program was proposed: it was simply a proposal to sustain jobs and the manned space flight activity. NASA needs to realize that space exploration using humans no longer makes sense when you have our current technology in automation and robotics which can be used with existing launchers to sustain exploration. Comparing the science and technology returns over recent years between manned space flight ( where most of the investments are simply to keep humans alive)and robotic missions shows that the science return for a given amount of money invested is far higher for robotics. And carrying out an exploration program using robotics would be affordable and allow NASA to maintain reasonable investments in it's other areas of research such as earth science and aeronautics.

Oh, my, Keith. Comparing a train in Tampa to a rocket in Brevard. Sigh. There is a long history of that train, having nothing to do with NASA, nor the Federal Govt. Florida voters, frustrated at lack of light rail progress, voted it in as a constitutional amendment. Our Governor and Legislature slow rolled it, worked another amendment that was deliberately confusing, and tricked the voters into cancelling it. Then local governments resurrected it. And a US Representative lobbied to kill it. Then stimulus money came in, and Tampa did the right thing and grabbed it. Good for them. This money is being spent on the right thing at the right time. Good on them.

By the way, I work on Orion at KSC. The frenzy stinks, and I'm not wild about the way the info came out, even though I am an Obama fan. Still, its a long, strange journey for any space program, and we may have to take a few potholes along the way.

Regarding Keith's comment, "Also, the fact that the Obama Administration seems to be more interested in moving tourists to see fantasy depictions of space exploration as opposed to doing the real thing speaks volumes. What sort of message is this sending?"

What it says to me is that fantasy trumps reality. To wit, the popularity of Avatar.

In fact, Obama's plan promotes four things: escapist entertainment for the fearful masses (ala the popularity of frivolous movies during the great depression), short term construction jobs for blue collar workers, catering to business interests (both Disney and the local Florida economy), and promoting high speed rail technology.

Space exploration isn't a priority for this administration. We are going to have to get used to that. It is worth nothing that even though this year a bigger NASA budget is proposed, in out years, there is a potential federal budget freeze in the works for all non-security related work.

NASA desperately needs to refocus on the fundamentals of space/aeronautics research and technology development and ruthlessly jettison anything that isn't part of it's core mission. Let's get back to experimental vehicles that push the risk envelope to test new capabilities.


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This page contains a single entry by Keith Cowing published on January 27, 2010 10:50 AM.

Mars Rover Spirit Becomes a Stationary Research Platform was the previous entry in this blog.

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