Summary of Financial Feasibility
Given current assumptions
- Development + 10 years of operations may cost NASA $10B to $20B for one viable commercial crew provider
- Domestic commercial crew launch capability may result in prices per seat 2 to 3 times that of foreign based alternative access options
- Due to the fixed and variable nature of space launch operations 2 viable CC
Summary of a Reliability Based Acquisition Analysis
- Completely commercial service is difficult to envision in the near-term given expected CS requirement
- LV offers most flexibility for choosing a commercial-like development approach within CC Program
- Parallel government / commercial efforts may allow near-term assured domestic capability, as well as "maturation ramp" for longer-term, commercially-provided crew launch services
Keith's note: This report (as is described by these charts briefed to Bolden) was clearly written by people who did not want to provide NASA with a positive answer with regard to space commercialization as it relates to crew transport. The underlying assumption seems to be that all involved are starting from scratch with no experience base whatsoever. That is simply not true.
"In conclusion, any model that does not make use of appropriate assumptions or real-world data will be of limited use. Given that the commercial spaceflight industry finds many of the model inputs, assumptions and assertions in the white paper to be incorrect or inaccurate, no findings or conclusions from the white paper's analysis should be considered accurate or of significance in any real-world setting without significant further review and industry input."