Frank Wolf Doesn't Like China

Folks:

For the record, the Chinese human space program started it the early 90's and has progressed at a pace that only the Chinese would consider hasty. Their space station will be akin to MIR as their capsule emulates Soyuz. Not on the scale of ISS.

If the Chinese carry on at their own pace, without external help, they may have a secure human presence in space in a couple of decades. They are using inefficient, reworked forty year old tech to get the job done, but so what. The Chinese are masters at inefficiency.

In this day and age, Wolf should know better then try to pull the wool over folks eyes like you could in 'the good ol' days'. Ain't gonna work. The internet carries the power of truth in it's heart if one chooses to look.

tinker

I don't like China either.

If we worked with them we run a very high likely hood of having our technology stolen.

I only hope this fear of china results in reduced pork and a larger budget for Commercial crew and BEO exploration.

Should you trust China? Absolutely not.

Did we trust the USSR? Absolutely not.

But we did deal with them. Successfully. As we can with China.

We need to go beyond the "fear culture" that we have right now, that Bin Laden ushered in, and Bush had the US embrace.

Reagan's greatest moment was in the incredible courage to finally defeat the Cold War "fear culture", using the past decades work of prior administrations.

So its not that one wants to deal with China. Just that one must deal with China. Its not going away. Frank Wolf is a unconfident fool - yes he should control how we deal with China - he should be extremely careful and resolute.

But it requires engagement. As before. We had this exact problem before. With the same sentiment. People then didn't have any confidence, just feared and wanted to ignore - which obviously would have been a catastrophic mistake. We shouldn't make that mistake now.

Secondly, dealing with China is not anything like the USSR. If you want cues on dealing with China, carefully observe Russia. And South Korea. How they do it.

No knee jerk ideological fix that works here for Wolf.

I think Wolf's comments have a tinge of paranoic hysteria about them. I would not trust the Chinese, just as I was loathe to trust the Soviets, but at the end of the day, we had to work with the Soviets. I think that the Chinese are becoming a spacepower and to be brutally honest, they stand a good chance of gaining on the US in terms of manned space activities, which are ending (at least for the foreseeable future). Wolf would be better placed focusing on how to turn around the dire state of the US manned space programme by actively promoting strong and decisive US government support for building heavy lift launch vehicles as soon as possible, and developing a coherent and achievable exploration program, as well as promoting opportunities for commercial space as much as possible. Delivering anti-Chinese vitriol is not going to contribute to turning around the US manned space program. Nor will it stop the Chinese from putting Taikonauts on the lunar surface before the US returns, nor will it stop them deploying ASATs, should they choose to do so. If the US really wants to remain number one in Space, then its got to get back in the game in a serious way, rather than look on passively as government deals the US Space Program a death of a thousand cuts.

Malcolm Davis,
Canberra, Australia

I for one would prefer working with India, a democracy in Asia, instead of the the Chinese. The Chinese, with their record of ignoring intellectual property rights, known (and unknown) military technology espionage and dismal human rights records doesn't deserve cooperation.

Says Wolf:

"In less than 10 years the Chinese have gone from launching their first manned spacecraft to unveiling plans last week for an advanced Chinese space station designed to rival the International Space Station"

This is hilarious to me as it once again points out the bankruptcy of our current national space agenda, and the complete lack of understanding on the part of so called leaders on Congress as to what we is happening and we are capable of doing. The US went from a standing start 40+ years ago and in less than 10 years put a human on the Moon.

The problem was that to do so we copied our competitors socialist system, and it was not sustainable - let alone inducing of growth and expansion.

This time, even as the Chinese copy us under their totalitarian regime, we have a huge advantage - and one that could help turn around our relationship with them and the rest of the world - our commercial space industry. Sure, work with them...

Rather than outsourcing our space program to the Russians, if congress people like Wolf would get a clue, stop whining and instead invest in the genius and drive of our own non-governmental space machine this natural Chinese move into space would look pathetic and trivial compared to what we can do.

Because there are too many in the US federal government with views like Wolf's, whether towards the Chinese or other countries, I don't think you're going to get any new cooperation in space any time soon.  That's too bad, because it's an emotional response to the situation, not a rational one.

As for whether cooperating with China in space is a good idea or a bad one, I like to evaluate that sort of issue by turning it on it's head — within the next 10, 20, 30 years, what's the worst that can happen if we cooperate with China?; what's the worst that can happen if we don't cooperate with China?

Answer those two questions and then see if there's anything that you can't afford.

Steve

"....manned space activities, which are ending (at least for the foreseeable future)."

Say what? ...roll eyes

Ralphy,

Obviously, I hope I'm wrong. I want to see US manned space activities pick up again as soon as possible. But once Atlantis flies its final mission in July, the US manned space program becomes more vulnerable to budget cuts, delays and lack of direction. This is especially the case given the very severe problems facing the US economy in coming years. Manned space activities - new launch vehicles, and new spacecraft - become proverbial 'low hanging fruit' for a Congress and an Administration which does not see Space as being a high priority, and which are battling massive debt issues, not to mention the cost of continuing foreign wars, looming strategic competition with China, and trade challenges. There is the real possibility that any 'next steps' could be delayed, scaled back, or cancelled, certainly by the current administration, and potentially by subsequent administrations.

In that sense, space competition with China is a good thing. I'm not taking Wolf's perspective (which is a rather ignorant and narrow-minded one), but I am saying that sometimes a sense of competition and a real challenge to US superiority in space can prod American decision-makers to make some policy choices and invest money to achieve goals decisively. If competition from China does not have that effect, then the US really does lose its position as the world leader in manned spaceflight.

Malcolm,
Canberra, Australia

Hi Malcolm,

Please understand that the US is not stopping manned space activities. In fact, NASA has a multi year contract with Energia to continue to send US astronauts back and forth to the ISS. BTW, Energia proclaims itself to be a private, "commercial" entity so NASA is continuing its commercialization activities in that regard. Sending and retrieving astronauts to LEO is pretty much a dead issue as far NASA is concerned, unless there is some new world shaking technology involved such as tethers or space elevators (if they become viable). The ISS missions should continue for quite sometime. I don't see Congress cutting it loose anytime soon.

Where the controversy is concerned is about leaving earth orbit, where to, and how. You are right in that budgets are of key concern in this matter and any such mission is highly vulnerable. However, if you are familiar with NASA's history you know that the various NASA space centers scattered among the states have powerful constituentcies and they too represent a huge historic investment. I cannot predict how this will end up but Congress, if nothing else, is a poltical animal.

And that is where I think you are also correct about China. If Congress, ie. the people who sent them there, becomes concerned then they will act accordingly. The question is, how competive is China? And how long are they going to take to get to their objectives? A sleepy American electorate could be suprised in the next 20 years.

"Please understand that the US is not stopping manned space activities. In fact, NASA has a multi year contract with Energia to continue to send US astronauts back and forth to the ISS"

The US is not stopping manned space activities only because we will be paying the Russians. By most accounts, while not stopping manned space activities it is stopping American HSF. Do you think Israel or Italy claim to have a human space flight capability just because they can send astronauts on shuttle or soyuz?

Hi Ralphy,

Yes I was aware of that of course. But to me it does not count as a US program. The US is depending on the Russians to get people to the ISS, and already the Russians have hiked the price considerably, and are talking of doing the same again. So long as the US does not do it, itself, it's access to Space can be turned off by Moscow. Ultimately, its not up to Congress, nor the Administration, nor the American people. I don't call that a manned space flight program.

I'm hoping that CCDEV and commercial operators can come to the rescue early, but I'm worried their progress will be delayed by needless government over-regulation and red-tape. Ultimately, I'd argue that human space-flight to LEO should be handled by the commercial operators, but that will take time to establish. In the meantime, with US astronauts completely depending on the Russians to get them to the ISS, its a period of high risk. This risk is amplified by the economic challenges which I mentioned earlier which could choke off any government-run follow on to the Shuttle, as well as for US HSF operations beyond LEO.

Agreed your 'constituency' point is a valid one, but that is not stopping massive job losses around the various Space Centres as a result of the shutdown of the Shuttle, and the cancellation of Constellation! Congress ultimately has not been able to protect these locations, and I think its only going to get harder the more the US has to confront severe economic issues such as Debt and dealing with domestic issues such as the greying of the Baby Boomer generation, with all the attendant health and social welfare costs that will come with that challenge.

In terms of your final points, I think the Chinese are VERY competitive. Space, like military development, is a point of nationalist pride for China, which is in every sense a rising superpower, and they are not going to sit on their laurels for long. Their Tiangong space station is very much 'Skylab and Salyut' but it serves a purpose, which is to be a stepping stone to new objectives. I'm tipping a Taikonaut will be on the lunar surface by 2025. That's not that far away, and the US may not be well prepared to respond to such a challenge if efforts towards future launch vehicles are whittled away by budget cuts or lack of domestic support.

Malcolm,
Canberra, Australia

Steve,

An excellent suggestion. May I also add that one should ask the same two questions but substitute "China" with "USSR/Russia" and from the perspective prior to ASTP.

Then think of what happened since.

The US shouldn't let fear be its policy. Its chief advantage should be to lead on a global scale.

What I fear is an incompetent relationship with China. By its nature, we cannot avoid having a relationship with China.

Right on the nose, noofcsq and Rick Tumlinson. Ignoring the Chinese space program won't substantially hinder them. But it will substantially limit our influence over Chinese government behavior in general. Let's suppose, as Tumlinson suggests, that we cooperate with the Chinese, but put the heat on our own commercial HSF program. We'll leave them choking in our dust as far as space exploration capability. Meanwhile the little nibbles they can pick up from our collaboration will be their most valuable resource for their own space program. It's one of the few ways we can quickly counterbalance their basic economic power and at the same time create incentives to influence the Chinese government.

Tinker,

For the record, the Chinese human space program started it the early 90's and has progressed at a pace that only the Chinese would consider hasty. Their space station will be akin to MIR as their capsule emulates Soyuz. Not on the scale of ISS.

Very well said.

The Chinese program started with existing Russian blueprints and has only managed to get to where the US and Russia were more than 40 years ago. If they follow through on this space station plan, they'll reach what Russia did in the 1970s and 1980s. They still won't be anywhere close to what the US did in 1969.

They've only done three manned spaceflights, in 2003, 2005, and 2008. The US alone has launched 11 space shuttle flights just since the last Chinese flight, not to mention the continuous presence of US astronauts in orbit on the ISS.

I hope the Chinese program will eventually get closer to the state of the art, and I think it will gradually get closer. But it currently isn't anywhere close.

As a general rule, I'd rather see competition between different space programs than cooperation. Then more ideas get tried, and there's more of a chance someone will succeed. And each program can learn by observing the successes and failures of the others.

So I'd rather see less cooperation with China, just because we're all better off with more competition. I just wish China weren't so far behind. It's going to be a long time before China provides real competition.

In the short term, I think cooperation between different programs would accomplish more, but over the long term it would accomplish less than smaller individual programs competing with each other.

What would be great would be for the US, Russia, Europe, and Japan to stop cooperating on space and all start competing with each other.

Chris, I agree with your assessment completely. One other thing does occur to me, though.

From the standpoint of military and espionage capability, China with “Russian 1980’s” space capability might seem more significant to say Taiwan, Hong Kong, the Koreas, Australia, Japan, etc.

Steve

From the standpoint of military and espionage capability, China with “Russian 1980’s” space capability might seem more significant to say Taiwan, Hong Kong, the Koreas, Australia, Japan, etc.

That's a good point.

I was thinking specifically about human spaceflight programs. Up to a certain point, most of the technology for a human spaceflight program also has important military uses -- the ability to launch a sizable payload into LEO is the biggest part of putting humans in orbit, and that technology also enables ICBMs, spy satellites, and other military capabilities. But after that point has been reached, I think human spaceflight and militarily useful technology diverge for the most part. China has had this basic ICBM and satellite launch capability for decades. From there, developing human space flight may have some peripheral military applications, but for the most part, any dollars spent on human space flight will give little militarily useful return compared to spending those dollars directly on the military. So any dollars China invests in a human space program that would otherwise have gone to military space (or any other military program) are good for us.

I would still be cautious about allowing Western human spaceflight technology to be made available to China, because that could give them some military benefits for free. But as long as they're spending their own resources on developing human spaceflight, I'm not worried.

... more Frank Wolf-induced pointless behavior (and bad manners)...

Steve