OIG Cites Multiple Orion/MPCV Delays
Final Report – IG-13-022 – Status of NASA’s Development of the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle
“For example, the MPCV Program is beginning to experience testing delays that could result in schedule interruptions and cost increases down the road. Specifically, test dates have slipped 4 years on the Ascent Abort-2 test and 9 months on the Exploration Flight Test-1. NASA has also delayed development of many of the life support systems required for crewed missions. Similarly, reliance on timely progress of the SLS and GSDO programs and the ESA for the Service Module adds risk that is outside the control of the Program and could have a negative impact on the MPCV and NASA’s overall exploration mission goals. Moreover, even after the MPCV is fully developed and ready to transport crew, NASA will continue to face significant challenges concerning the long-term sustainability of its human exploration program. For example, unless the Agency begins a program to develop landers and surface systems, NASA astronauts will be limited to orbital missions using the MPCV. Under the current budget environment, it appears unlikely that NASA will obtain significant funding to begin development of additional exploration hardware, thereby delaying such development into the 2020s.”
Considering NASA has staked the future of its HSF on Orion/MPCV, an already bleak future looks bleaker. Will there be a recruitment freeze for the next astronaut class?
What would astronauts do if they worked for NASA?? Lay around in rubber life rafts all day or fly dragons?????
http://observationdeck.io9….
The lucky ones will fly on Dragon and ISS.
yeah but we only need 4 US crew per year for the ISS so going to be a long line for that new class of recruits unless there is a mass exodus from CB given the long wait time.
“Under the current budget environment, it appears unlikely that NASA
will obtain significant funding to begin development of additional
exploration hardware, thereby delaying such development into the 2020s.”
…and the song remains the same.
Moved
Anyone have a fork? Time to stab this turkey and see if it is done.
Lolol DID laugh out loud on that one π
And if Orion has a fork in it what precisely is the excuse for continuing with the budget vampire that is SLS? Better to develop a BEO strategy using affordable launchers, depots etc.
I say we go back to NautilusX and just use commercial crew to get the folks up and down. nobody wants to explore the solar system as spam in the can.
It’s sad where the difficult (but interesting) questions end up when written up into nice little documents (not answers) for public consumption. Our civil servants have learned so well to hide simple truths behind complexity.
I’m not sure that’s entirely fair. More likely is an assumption that the public cannot digest or understand the truth. Editors say that newspapers are written for an 8th grade audience. Probably the same assumptions operating here.
I do feel compelled sometimes to jump in and defend public employees. Not because I’ve ever been oneβ I haven’t. And not because sometimes I am not infuriated- I have. Mostly because my close experience with them [in an entirely different field, I confess] has shown hard working and involved individuals often getting a bad rap due to the poor performance of a few.
“…newspapers are written for an 8th grade audience. Probably the same assumptions operating here.“
However, let’s not overlook the fact that there are many seasoned experts who are independently saying the same things, but readably worded, in old media and newer media alike. Those people are not trying to hide anything, so the rational and accurate truth (and opinions) do make their way into the public’s awareness β but you have to work for it.
Doctors for years and years writing their prescriptions in Latin to make sure they protect their jobs comes to mind.
There is nothing wrong with Orion/SLS that appropriate funding levels won’t fix. Space X schedule has slipped also. Gee it turns out that space exploration is difficult & expensive…what a shock.
There is a huge difference here. With Orion/SLS, every year NASA slips is another three billion down the drain.
They shouldn’t waste any money on Orion or SLS. There is absolutely no good reason to build them!
You do understand we are talking about a DISPOSABLE capsule, that is going to cost over 10 billion .. that is TEN BILLION to develop, and cost over 1 billion per copy .. and get splashed after each mission? Also, the SLS is going to cost 30 billion do develop.. but with this report.. will probably closer to 40 billion .. and will cost over 2 billion each .. and will get splashed each mission…
now tell … how is a space program going to be sustainable .. when you are splashing over 3 BILLION worth of hardware after each mission…
you DO realize this is EXACTLY why Apollo ended in the first place .. right?
I think you’re being overly optimistic saying “over 1 billion per copy.” I won’t be surprised if it turns out like Contellation did β a new price tag every other month and a whole lot of things that simply were not included in the costing.
You were right .. there was a one liner in that OIG report. They estimated it was going to cost 16.5 billion.
“Assuming this budget profile and current development schedule, NASA plans to spend approximately $16.5 billion developing its crew vehicle by the time of the first crewed flight currently planned for 2021.”
How much does a nuclear powered aircraft carrier cost?
Something’s wrong if just a capsule costs that much. To get a handle on that huge cost I looked up the cost of platinum. That development cost for the ca. 10,000 kg Orion is about 30 times what it would be if it were made of pure platinum!
So platinum still isn’t expensive enough to get the point across. How about diamonds?!? I looked up the price of uncut diamonds and found this:
Diamonds up 50%, yet sparkle.
UAE jewellery chains say sales have jumped by 15-25% this year.
By Parag Deulgaonkar
Published Thursday, September 22, 2011
A carat is 1/5th a gram. So 105 million carats is about 20 million grams, 20,000 kg.
This means the Orion development cost is worth more than four times its weight in uncut diamonds!!
Really, if this doesn’t make it apparent that NASA has to move to commercial space to make manned spaceflight affordable I don’t know what will.
Bob Clark
“How much does a nuclear powered aircraft carrier cost?“
In dollars or in capsules?
The US has 10 Nimitz-class nuclear aircraft carriers (called supercarriers) which cost around $4.5 billion each to build.
So, using the Orion $16.5 billion estimate:
1 Orion = 3.66 nuclear supercarriers
holy
We should be launching nuclear supercarriers into space!
We could maybe do it with the original Orion launcher concept (Γ la Taylor and Dyson) β launching nuclear supercarriers using our stockpiled nuclear arsenal!
Yep then there would be somewhere to go when Earth gets overly dictatorish and renews interest in slavery (any person, of any race to be clear). Bury a few super carriers on the Moon, Mars and of course beyond. I wonder if anyone has done the odd ball calculations of what a few inches of steel would do for radiation shielding, I have to imagine it was thrown out as a material due to weight long ago.
The weight (mass) isn’t the only problem. The secondary radiation generated with steel, or any iron-based alloy, is more damaging than the incident radiation. You could, in theory, use steel more effectively for passive radiation protection by a succession of layers alternated with damping regions, but you’d end up with something so huge and massive that you might just as well core an asteroid for your spacecraft.
I do see an additional problem. With rockets you need to take along all of that fuel and oxidizer with you. If we were to use nuclear supercarriers in space then we’d also have to drag along all of the water to float them on! We’d better have NASA issue an RFP for water depots. We could blast Saturn’s rings with chains of solar mirrors to get the water … no, wait … which budget does this come out of? It’s not science; it’s not exploration; it’s not avionics. It’s not even funny any more.
Oh, well. We almost had a game changer there for a minute.
Yeah leads me back to ball of water craft, best option for fuel and resources for deep space missions. Yeah, I guess if you’re launching a supercarrier into space, than really you’re building a solar system class ship. We’re over 100 years away from a deep space ship. We should build do or fund that stuff because it gives us access to the stellar factories, and likely give certain groups more resources. If I were an ultra billionaire I would seriously consider the strategic risk of keeping all investments on earth, while weapons technology proliferates. If you mining facility is irradiated it somewhat thwarts your hold on power and influence. I’m sure a few have started to consider putting some infrastructure out of range of any nations WMD plans. Somewhere you’ll know what’s coming from a long long way off, and there will be little surprise of a human nature.
This is really sad but also outrageous given the time and money this program has received but anybody with half a brain knew this was very likely given the history of these cost plus jobs programs! What bewilders me is how many people believe that this program or the SLS program will have a different outcome from it’s predecessors given there almost identical e.g. employee’s, contract structure and vehicle engines and parts. “Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” ~Albert Einstein
Tom
Orion and SLS are just welfare for the rich. No one ever really expected either of these vehicles to ever fly. Years ago when I learned this truth I made some wise cracks with the punch line being that these programs/NASA are a big joke. But don’t worry these dinosaurs take time die. Good people are making good money helping their kids. And Elon’s is shouldering the DREAM! THE SPACE DREAM ON MY OLD Disney Von Braun inspired lunch box.
Maybe before the end of the year Spacex fishes it’s first stage out of ocean. Puts it on his test stand and lights nine of them up!!!
I agree whit everything you have said but this “No one ever really expected either of these vehicles to ever fly.” That maybe true for the men and women who mandated them but at the end of the day the tax payers are the ones who are promised that the primary goal of these programs is to achieve important milestones of human spaceflight but the actual reality is to maintain or bring jobs to certain districts. This is deceitful and dishonest but also very disheartening. If you look at the enormous amount of money spend over the years on these “cost plus jobs programs” that a lot of taxpayers really worked hard for just wasted to benefit a few. I and many other’s like Robert Zubrin feel robbed of these defining future human achievements.
Of course I agree with you π my sad point that however inefficient our f up system cleans house eventually. Lolol I hope/think????
I remember zuburn saying years back that only governments have the wherewithall to send people to Mars. Also I recall the Mars society backing SLS out of fear that commercial would not be ready soon enough. ELON proved his thoughts wrong! Has Mars society stopped supporting SLS yet??????? I don’t know??? MUSK WILL GET US TO MARS IN AN AFFORDABLE WAY. Finally Zubrin believes !!! After watching NASA Congress crap a few months on NASA WATCH i knew Spacex was our ONLY Hope
IT DOESN’T TAKE A ROCKET SCIENTISTT TO SEE IT. but is does take man like Musk to do something about it!
Add Mr. Zubran tried to use the broken system achieve his dreams. Don’t have we have to challenge the system?? Can Charley Bolden. change the system he works for or is it up YOU And ME!!!!! The Buck stops with US!!!!!!!
true though the ever shifting requirements hasn’t helped Orion make progress. go to the ISS, go to the moon, 6 crew, 4 crew, land landing, water landing, reusable, one time use, go to an asteroid, etc.