The Usual Suspects Want Their Government Handout
New Alliance To Promote Space Development and Settlement Policies, Space News
“Perhaps the most ambitious part of the ASD agenda is a proposed “Cheap Access to Space Act” that would offer $3.5 billion in government prizes for the development of reusable launch vehicles. Those prizes include, in a draft version of the bill provided by ASD, $1 billion to the first fully reusable vehicle that can place at least one metric ton into orbit and fly again a week later.”
Keith’s note: Yet another space group comprised of the usual suspects. Yet another request by a space group for the government to give them billions in handouts. Sigh. This is getting old. These groups keep proposing the same old same old – under new names each time.
Its clearly the right direction to move toward depots and reusable LVs, but prizes are not motivational at all.
NASA requires a means to store propellant in LEO and a significant number or BEO missions for ‘reuseable’ LVs to be cost effective. This capability DNE and the number of BEO missions…is zero.
The ‘prize’ should be the promise that old technology is replaced with the more cost effective technology, not a lump sum that goes to the CEOs and shareholders, and not the slave labor. Since NASA and DOD still fly technology that is multiple decades old, good luck with that.
To be fair, groups pushing for funding of incentive prizes isn’t at all the same thing as groups pushing for direct handouts to themselves.
Technology incentive prizes have had considerable success in the past, and are worth pursuing in the low-cost space transport field, in my moderately informed opinion.
History does indicate that you have to be careful how you structure them to ensure they aren’t gamed and won with dead-end technologies, to ensure they don’t just become vehicles for self-perpetuating administrative groups, and to ensure that the incentives offered aren’t badly mismatched (too low OR too high) to the goals desired.
I haven’t seen enough details of the current push to comment how well it might meet these criteria – I do gather it’s something of a work in progress with many details TBD – but I wouldn’t reject it out of hand just yet. (After all, such an effort would have to be remarkably badly conceived and run to provide the same certainty of no affordably useful results as the current SLS program – and even then the hypothetical abominably-run prize would produce those useless results at a fraction of SLS’s cost, GD&R…)
And a single, one-off prize in a completely novel field is a really bad way to structure such a prize.
Prizes need to be multiple, overlapping and each within reach of existing technology but not quite within reach of existing systems. Even famous one-off prizes like the Orteig aviation prize was part of an ecosystem of such prizes, as well as regular contests, it didn’t exist on its own.
[That said, I’ve suggested a one-off prize myself. $2.7b to the first human to walk on the moon before the end of this decade. Half the time, 10% of the non-inflation adjusted original funding, and 1% of the inflation adjusted cost of the original Apollo challenge.
The reason I consider it worth a one-off prize, is that it forever break the claim that “we” can no longer put a man on the moon. It shows just how much technology has advanced. And, as much as I often mock the concept, it really is inspiring. Not necessarily to the public (some will, some won’t) but to the industry.]
FWIW, The Moon Society (TMS) was approached about joining the Alliance. However the means of reaching their objectives wasn’t entirely clear, and my analyst hat was telling me that it was effectively another version of the SEA Blitz or the SFF’s March Storm efforts. Since TMS members tend to be very apolitical, and our legacy from The Artemis Society is a focus on commercial development of the Moon, we decided to take a pass. Any of our members that want to head to D.C. already have access to the SEA Blitz.
From a personal perspective, I became jaded on D.C. when I was in NYC and doing civic work through groups like United Nations Association and Rotaract at the UN. They also did trips to D.C., to educate legislators about the importance of the work of the U.N., and UNA even publishes an annual briefing book they distribute to Congressional Offices.
What I quickly learned was that it is a sisyphean task: (a) you never meet with the legislators, just their staffs, (b) the staff changes every year so you’re always starting from square one, and (c) it’s apparent that most legislators seem to view the UN as either a tar baby or a convenient whipping boy. So in my view advocacy to legislators is essentially a fruitless exercise, no matter how herculean the effort. Experience has shown me that there’s little difference in regard to space advocacy efforts.
Thus, The Moon Society focuses on educating the general public about the value of our Moon to our economic future (a HUGE undertaking given the general level of ignorance regarding our Moon), and exploring the technologies that will be applicable to Lunar development. Sure we’re small and it’s tough going, but the rewards are there and we’re going to keep plugging away towards them.
The key shift will be when we transition from an economic philosophy of value extraction (i.e. looting and pillaging and general corporate brigandage) so prevalent today to one of value creation (i.e. building and creating new value to grow economic prosperity).
A ton for a billion$. What a joke. They ought to keep up with space news. DARPA has the experimental space plane, XS-I started. They have selected 3 teams to design 3 different planes. It will be a glide to landing. Up to 5000lbs. to LEO. for 5million$. per launch. They suggest using a NK-33, Melin. AJ-26 ought to be cheap. They have a schedule to decide anytime now to select a design and decide if they want to continue. I think they are asking for 30 million$ next year, so it sounds like they are. No, SpaceX was not selected or did not apply. These Congress people ought to go to the DARPA hearing and vote for XS-1.https://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=67t....
https://www.fbo.gov/index?s…. This is the solicitation.
Here is the whole prize:The measure would establish a goal for private companies to place a 1 metric ton payload with at least two crew members into a circular orbit of 400 km at 51.6 degrees inclination, according to a draft of the measure.
A $1 billion tax-exempt prize would be paid to the first entrant to repeat the flight using the same vehicle within one week of returning to Earth. A $750 million tax exempt prize would be awarded to the second entrant to achieve that milestone.
A second set of $1 billion and $750 million prizes would be awarded to the first two entrants that can launch the same vehicles into orbit 10 times within 10 weeks.
– See more at: http://www.parabolicarc.com….
This a good deal. May still be a joke if they don’t get the money. Nobody can do this with the known systems. I don’t remember how much B O’s biconic cargo is. Blue Origin is developing a reusable first-stage booster. It will take off vertically like a conventional booster rocket and lift the upper stages to a conventional suborbital staging point, where the upper stage will separate and continue to propel the astronauts to orbit. Once separated, the first stage booster will descend to perform a powered vertical landing similar to the New Shepard Propulsion Module. Then the orbital booster can be refueled and launched again, allowing improved reliability and lowering the cost of human access to space.
Orbital Reusable Booster System
The booster rocket will loft a biconic Space Vehicle to orbit, carrying astronauts and supplies for adventure, science research, and exploration. After orbiting the Earth, the Space Vehicle will reenter Earth’s atmosphere to land on land under parachutes, and then be reused on future missions to Earth orbit. The 2nd stage is lost. So this system is not 100% reusable. This may attract someone, if the bill is passed, which I doubt.
You actually think that the US is going to accept, pay for, and/or pay for services from a new vehicle with Russian engines? Sorry, but that’s as likely to happen as it is for Putin to reverse course and start pushing for greater freedoms for Russians.
No, I do not think so. Just reporting something interesting in the solicitation. BO is in. They may be chosen with their engine. DARPA is cutting a lot of programs, but keeps this one going with full funding. Don’t know if SpaceX will sell engines though. Hard to predict what will happen with ES-1. Maybe the contractors will offer launches. Maybe DARPA has bigger plans in ES-2 etc.
As it stands I don’t think SpaceX has the manufacturing capacity to afford sales of engines.