A Reminder From China About Space Station Lifespans
China, US need to build trust in space, Global Times
“After Chang’e-4 lunar probe successfully landed on the far side of the Moon, there has been considerable discussion among the US scientific community as to whether the US should embark upon a new cooperation with China for space exploration. A few weeks ago, US space agency NASA said in a statement that it is collaborating with the China National Space Administration for a lunar mission, and it is expected to image the landing site of Chang’e-4, using its lunar orbiter on January 31. The development marks the first time in eight years that China and the US have achieved such cooperation in aerospace, science and technology. … China plans to launch a manned space station and make it fully operational by 2022. If the International Space Station retires in 2024 as planned, then China will be the only country that has its own space station, at that time. Other countries including the US may need the Chinese space station to provide reliable support, which is also an opportunity to continue pushing forward with space technology through cooperation.”
What, no space stations that are private? The only thing that has prevent the launch of the Bigelow B330 has been a way to get crew to it. Rather then sending American dollars to China maybe NASA should plan on being supporting American firms like Bigelow Aerospace.
While I agree with this, it would require that Congress commit to at least buy services from private space stations. I would like to see NASA do this for at least two space station providers (just like commercial cargo and commercial crew). This would be a good thing as it would give private space stations an anchor tenant.
With the $3 billion that would be freed up getting rid of the ISS NASA would be able to not only rent space on multiple space stations, but probably also on a Moon base. Add in the savings ($3-4 billion) from dumping the SLS/Orion/Gateway and they could probably send dozens of astronauts to space and the Moon annually.
Remember the ‘peace dividend’ when the war in Vietnam ended? Never happened.
I’m not talking about the transfer of money from one appropriation bill to another, just NASA being a little more wise about spending the money it has, as with the Commercial Crew Program funding.
0But that’s the thing: money comes with earmarks. As I understand it very little NASA can do after appropriations.
Yep, but it will be much harder for the Congress Critters to justify the pork when the Starship is flying.
“If the International Space Station retires in 2024 as planned, then China will be the only country that has its own space station, at that time. Other countries including the US may need the Chinese space station to provide reliable support, “
That was my first thought when I read that. Bigelow still plans on 2021 first launch. At that time the Nation should have two domestic commercial passenger services to LEO that are operational. NASA will be an anchor tenant on that I am sure, if for no other reason but to block another country from being in the deep end of the pool with NASA.
“Other countries including the US may need the Chinese space station to provide reliable support”
What does that mean? What sort of support? A place to hang out, then go someplace else, when it’s cheaper to just go from the ground? We’ve no sort of spaceship even in gleaming eyes that lives in space, is fueled, and can “go” somewhere.
edit: everything we do in space expends every drop of fuel just to reach orbit. Deep space missions count on stealing a bit of gravity’s energy. We have NO source of energy that would be suitable for a ‘space ship’: something capable of leaving Earth or Mars orbit, for instance, for a foray to the Outer Planets. Nothing that would allow a ‘space ship’ to contemplate orbit plane changes. Nothing.
Contemplating a trip to Mars or Luna is an unbelievable stretch. And it’s one way, for the most part. Where is the energy/propulsion system, even under development, that a true ‘space faring’ race must have? As it is, it’s like driving Model T’s connected to gas stations with a hose.
The required energy densities are many times what’s currently available and not even on the horizon.
The one realm where progress is fairly consistent is AI. It’s my feeling that the real question regarding the future of human spaceflight is what we consider “human”.
AI is sneaking up on us. There are a few out there with warnings (Elon Musk, for one), but generally folks aren’t aware of what’s happening. Likely decades away, but the day will arrive when a machine will know what “I” means. Then what?
How do you know it hasn’t already happened?
Although the space station’s presumed demise is 2024, don’t count on that! First of all, NASA has a commendable record of supporting operating space missions, they are way cheaper than launching new ones! And secondly, no-
one mentions the elephant in the room, SpaceX and their Starship. Their intention (which seems to be at least partially paid for already) is to send about 12 artists around the moon in 2023 (reference the “Dear Moon” project) on a trajectory similar to Apollo 13’s. If they are able to demonstrate this feat, then the floodgates of government spending should open (actually, given what they have already achieved, they should have opened already, but politics…). One flight of Starship to ISS (Starship will have more pressurized content than all of ISS) will resupply it with whatever is needed, it will be able to deliver 100 tons of cargo to LEO, compared to two to four with current resupply. So, don’t think that ISS is limited to 2024, unless politics decides that.
And if NASA is not willing to pay there will be a line of sovereign customers (foreign space agencies) glad to buy rides on it, not to mention commercial users. The Starship is a roll of the dice. If it succeeds space exploration will never be the same. It will be NASA’s new Sputnik moment and it will be fun to watch them scramble.
Yep. After watching everything I could on youtube about Starship, including the choice of materials, I’m stunned by just how revolutionary the thing is – and, by the amount of work remaining, like avionics, life support, lots of other details. Still.
It seems bizarre to say it, but today stainless steel is a revolutionary material. But at the KSC visitor center you can see several Atlas 1 and 2 that were made from it many decades ago.