NASA PAO Silent As ISS Flies Through Russian ASAT Test Debris (Update)
Keith’s note: Finally, after a day of not answering media requests, kicking the can down the road, and playing favorites via phone chats with certain friendly news media before saying anything to everyone else, NASA PAO finally released a Russian ASAT statement around 6:00 pm ET. They did so hours after other government agencies made public statements. Sources report that NASA was constrained from responding earlier while the situation was analyzed by the State Department and DOD.
There is a much broader issue here. Why would Russia deliberately blow something up in space such that its space debris knowingly threatened its own citizens and hardware on the ISS? Has the Russian military gone rogue? Or is this saber rattling something that should be considered in the larger context of the Ukraine build up? Stay tuned.
– Russian direct-ascent anti-satellite missile test creates significant, long-lasting space debris, Space Command
– NASA Administrator Statement on Russian ASAT Test, NASA
– Russia Conducts Destructive Anti-Satellite Missile Test, State Department
ISS had to dodge Russian anti-satellite test #spacedebris The crew has been ordered to close the interior hatches until tomorrow as the ISS flies through the debris cloud. Meanwhile at @NASA – no mention whatsoever of this event. But sure let's talk about #Snoopy on #Artemis pic.twitter.com/CdLf1ObWfr
— NASA Watch (@NASAWatch) November 15, 2021
The State Dept spox, Ned Price, was just asked specifically if the debris that affected the ISS today was from the ASAT test and he told the reporter she'd have to ask NASA, which is the same reply I got when I asked State Dept PAO. I've asked NASA (and USSPACECOM).
— Marcia Smith (@SpcPlcyOnline) November 15, 2021
Now we know why Putin made it illegal to report about Russian space efforts.
Maybe deorbiting ISS would be a good idea.
Well you could but what would replace it and the immediate effect upon manned spaceflight everywhere, apart from China? What about all those billions invested in the U.S. commercial cargo and crew programs? Imagine all those launchpads around the world left unused with all those rockets and spaceships laying about in hangars with nowhere to go.
Right now no country, apart from China, has any substantial plans for low earth orbit. It’s all talk amongst some of the Station partners who instead want to keep their precious lab orbiting till 2030 (good luck with that after this latest Russian roulette).
They also want to put people on the Moon and something like a mini ISS going around it. The CGI looks good but the reality is anything but.
Ultimately, ISS will be cremated in Earth’s atmosphere and its remains resting at the bottom of the sea. But I hope this doesn’t happen before 2025, with a replacement habitat safely in orbit, and certainly not as a result of a debris cloud.
Axiom Space starts launching their modules to ISS ~2024, the first 2 under construction at Thales. They keep adding until a basic station is complete then detach ~2028. Crew Dragon handles their first 4 crew missions.
Without a suitable alternate orbital platform already in place that the US has unlimited access to, deorbiting ISS now would be a mistake akin to cancelling shuttle without a suitable alternative American LEO human transport system in place.
If anything, this should be the final wakeup call to NASA concerning the recent unreliability of partnering with Russia/Roscosmos. Perhaps a step back and focusing on our own commercial space and partner endeavors with ESA, Japan, AUS, etc…, until Russia can return to playing nice on the international stage, is in order.
“Why would Russia deliberately blow something up in space such that its space debris knowingly threatened its own citizens and hardware on the ISS? Has the Russian military gone rogue? Or is this saber rattling something that should be considered in the larger context of the Ukraine build up?”
My guess is Roscosmos was not informed of the ASAT Test by the Russian government, or the Russian military. I cannot accept the scenario where they would be informed, and they did nothing in terms of warning NASA or the ISS itself of an impending space debris event.
This has serious implications in terms of future space diplomacy with Moscow, over who we are speaking to, vs who we need to speak to about things such as ASAT test bans, and UN General Assembly Resolution 75/36 on responsible behaviour in space. To what extent are the Russians really genuine about working towards such goals – or are their diplomatic front merely there to deflect focus away from what their military are doing behind the scenes.
My sense is that Roscosmos has really been sidelined. Putin is all in on the security services and military and space holds importance only insofar as it serves his primary military-security interests. I can just see him taking a backhanded approach, like this, to undermining/destroying the cooperative success of the ISS. What has me scratching my head is why they would engage in actions that could create so much debris in orbits accessible from Baikonur as to make it hazardous for themselves to launch much of anything. Are their other cosmodromes really ready to take up the slack?
Big sky is big sky. Prior to ISS, did the Soviet Union or Russia EVER actively avoid a known conjunction?
Sounds like the open scenes of the movie Gravity. No, the x-cccp military is not rogue. This decision would have been made at the highest applicable level and to quote a Russian engineer working on ISS some years ago – “Testing cost money and we have plenty of cosmonauts.”
Two questions:
1. What will be the consequences to Russia if their debris causes damage to the ISS or to any manned mission? What happens if that damage results in a loss of life?
2. Will Russia pay if or when the debris from that ASAT shot damages a commercial satellite or a national satellite?
Pay? It is to laugh. They will deny all involvement, a la the Little Green Men of Crimea and the ‘volunteer’ Russian soldiers in the Donbass.
Under the Outer Space Treaty and the Liability Convention, they’d be required to pay. But someone would have to prove the impacting debris came from that Russian test and not some other source of orbital debris. That’s more or less impossible, unless the object was large enough to have been continuously tracked. And if it were that large, ISS would do a collision avoidance maneuver to prevent the impact. Also, which court would hear the case? It would probably be within the World Court’s jurisdiction, but countries ignore their rulings fairly often. (And I think the debris would have to hit a US, ESA or JAXA part of the station; it isn’t as if the Russians would sue themselves if it hit a Russian module…)