Latest GAO Take On NASA’s Artemis Problems
Artemis
GAO
Keith’s note: According to GAO: “NASA has made progress demonstrating key capabilities needed to support its Artemis missions. …Despite this progress, NASA still faces several challenges:”
- Ambitious schedules. In November 2023 (GAO-24-106256), GAO found that the Artemis III lunar landing was unlikely to occur in December 2025, as planned, given delays and remaining technical work. In January 2024, NASA adjusted the launch date to September 2026 to allow contractors time to complete a significant amount of remaining complex work.
- Artemis III mission cost. In December 2019 (GAO-20-68), GAO found that NASA did not plan to establish an official cost estimate for this mission. NASA concurred with a GAO recommendation to establish one but has not yet done so. While NASA requested $6.8 billion to support Artemis III programs in its fiscal year 2024 budget request, decision-makers have limited knowledge into the full scope of Artemis III mission costs.
- Acquisition management. NASA’s largest, most complex projects, including those that support the Artemis missions, continue to shape the agency’s portfolio. When these projects exceed their cost baselines and require cost reserves to meet their funding needs, it has a cascading effect on other projects. NASA officials are exploring ways to better manage this project cost and schedule growth.
3 responses to “Latest GAO Take On NASA’s Artemis Problems”
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Based on NASAs track record, I’ll predict that the next Artemis II launch will happen by 3rd quarter 2026, assuming they dont have to completely redesign tne Orion heatshield and electrical system. If either of those do need major overhaul then we can add an extra 1-2 years. StarShip will launch 4 flights this year and 7 in 2025. If most are successful then they can begin to prove out the flight techniques for Artemis III and that might occur in 2030. President Trump will urge that it happens before the end of his Administration. By that time a new lunar suit might be ready. Any way you look at it this is a long drawn out program with few actual missions. Most of the excitement will be tests of StarShip. Given the long drawn out nature and that there will be only a few flights in the next 6 years, does that make it $3billion a mission, or maybe 4?
Actually the real excitement may be whether Artemis II or Dear Moon fly first. I wouldnt be surprised to see Dear Moon carry 10 or 12 people around the Moon as soon as the basic StarShip systems have been proven and that could.easily be by late 2025.
They left out research expertise needed to fix critical problems like the Heatshield