Ignoring The Mars Flyby Sticker Shock
Cooke: America needs a plan for space exploration, Opinion, Houston Chronicle
“Through logical progression and meaningful missions, I believe Americans will be motivated to support appropriate but reasonable budgets, that are commensurate with the value of the plan and the work needed to accomplish it. We cannot afford to delay or prolong the debate, because timing is critical to catch the unique planetary alignment that makes the first step possible in 2021.”
Keith’s note: Once again Doug Cooke is incapable and/or unwilling to give budget estimates. But he knows enough, so it would seem, to state that everyone will accept these “reasonable” costs. He never says that NASA’s budget will need to be increased substantially in order to do this Mars flyby with SLS/Orion. Does that mean he will take the funds from elsewhere? Flying a mission to Mars in 2021 means that NASA needs to start on this yesterday – and its current and projected budgets will simply not allow SLS/Orion/Mars flyby and ISS to be fully supported simultaneously. Clearly ISS will bear the brunt of the obvious budget reconfiguration. He is saving the sticker shock for later.
Cooke also neglects to mention that he is a Boeing consultant (they are heavily involved in SLS) and that he advises Dennis Tito’s Inspiration Mars project – where this whole flyby thing began.
When Doug Cooke writes he is more concerned than ever about the future of human space exploration, he means he is more concerned than ever about NASA and members of the NASA Old Guard Alumni Association, like him, being able to plan and control future United States human space exploration. Too bad. NASA and the Old Guard had many opportunities, but they fumbled them all. (NASA had fumble-help from many politicians over the last 3-plus decades, but NASA and the Old Guard could and should have done much better with what the politicians gave them to work with.)
The whole idea of the Venus-Mars fly-by is many years late in
developing. Right now it is doubtful that Orion or SLS will be ready for any kind of a manned deep space mission in seven years. By the current plan, Orion and SLS will have flown only once in a somewhat preliminary configuration by 2021.
Just a couple years ago Doug Cooke was in charge of the entire exploration program, but I do not recall him bringing up any kinds of Venus-Mars fly-by missions and early options. In fact, I do not recall a well laid-out plan for lunar exploration, cis-lunar development, or any planetary missions. The debate that never seemed to get resolved was whether lunar missions were to be sorties or aimed at building a long term base or outpost. Perhaps if he had been successful in establishing long term and interim goals, and alternate missions. and deep space vehicle configurations, a Venus-Mars fly-by might have been considered on a more timely basis. Speaking of which, I do not recall a well laid-out plan for lunar exploration, cis-lunar development, or any planetary missions being laid out more r
recently.
Another issue is the money. NASA is spending a lot of money on developing new systems. They’ve been spending money at a pretty fast rate for many years. But not much is coming out of all those expenditures. So why does anyone think that suddenly productivity is going to increase considerably and budgets will suddenly be expanded to Apollo-like proportions?
No documentation. Only my opinion based on personal observations from working at a NASA field center since Shuttle ALT days. I’m still employed there, watching and occasionally participating in the work on the latest Exploration plan that someone way above me thinks will sell.
Partly related to this blog post, does anyone know how the visit by a group of space advocates unfolded on Capitol Hill this week? Planetary Society was involved.
I would call the “Blitz” lobbying on their part if they had any money to grease political palms with. They do not but it is how lobbying should be limited to.
Only blunt force will make an impact on Capitol Hill. Not throwing people off balconies, e.g. NY congressman threatening a reporter, but targeting the re-election of a congressmen that is a dead-weight to space exploration and utilization. Space advocates do not have the capital or over-whelming numbers to impact many but the impact of dethroning one or two would be significant. [First thing to consider is the gerrymandering. Many “representatives” are locked in due to it]
From Planetary Society’s blog (Casey Dreier), “The Space Exploration Alliance (of which The Planetary Society is part) is organizing the 2014 Legislative Blitz, happening February 23rd – 25th in Washington, D.C. We’re organizing hundreds of meetings with lawmakers throughout Congress to speak up for space exploration, an we need your help.”
Keith’s note is right on the mark. Let me quote one sentence, “Flying a mission to Mars in 2021 means that NASA needs to start on this
yesterday – and its current and projected budgets will simply not allow
SLS/Orion/Mars flyby and ISS to be fully supported simultaneously.”
I do not know Cooke but many a NASA manager that lasted 38 years did something right. They played within the pecking order with stodgy intransigent managers embedded in fiefdoms and bureaucracy. Most carry their attitudes with them after NASA, into consulting or running commercial ventures.
A 2021 flyby of Mars with humans on board would at this point (2014) require an Apollo-like program and ramp up of funding. It would be detrimental to NASA’s HSF (HEOMD), costly and disruptive. Embedded in his Op-Ed, Cooke shows support for SLS and Orion and that is the rub.
Not all but many if not most of the older gens of NASA managers do not see the change that is taking place or they have too much riding on finishing SLS and Orion. Commercial launch of humans and the materials needed for lunar and inter-planetary travel is now the right path. Pull the plug on SLS and Orion and funds will be freed up to undertake the first steps towards Mars and/or returning Americans to the Moon.
This is a defining moment for NASA and human space flight. We will be the one’s responsible for the path taken. Generations that follow will look back and blame us for making the wrong choices or for setting NASA on the right track. Completion of SLS and Orion will lead to one or two missions in the 2020s by NASA but before 2025, low-cost reusable launch and heavy launch vehicles will be the norm. NASA scientists with Hubble and many other assets peer years, tens of years, thousands and billions of years into the past. We need to look 5 or 10 years into the future and recognize that the new path to human spaceflight has arrived. It is not just SpaceX. It is the competitive spirit they have brought that will quickly drive down the cost. SLS and Orion will only blow another decade of time and $50 Billion of taxpayer money if they are completed.
Is this a valiant attempt to provide a reason for SLS to exist? Is the word, “unsustainable” coming to anyone else’s mind?
I do not believe the 2021 Mars fly-by date, it will take longer to get new hardware sufficiently reliable. Fortunately Mars and Earth come near to each other approximately every 2 years. Design the habitat’s consumable stores to contain sufficient goods to cover a normal fly-by. Make the propulsion module’s fuel tanks sufficiently large that it has the delta-v to do an ordinary fly-by.
It will take more launches from Earth to supply the needed consumables but that is basically money rather than high risk design.
You are right, slingshot missions have been talked about for fifty years. We were getting ready to fly the first one forty years ago. But no one was pushing such a mission as one of the first flights out of the chutes for Orion in the 2021 time frame until just now.
I was interested to see that most of the panel did not seem that enthusiastic about the plan, and none of them wanted to discuss the cost. OTOH without it what will they do with SLS/Orion?