Why Are American Astronauts Flying On Standby?
Russian Film Plans Mean NASA Astronaut Could Spend an Entire Year in Space, Gizmodo
“Russian director Klim Shipenko and an actress to be named later might join the Soyuz MS-19 mission, which is scheduled for launch in October, as AP reports. .. Once filming activities are done, Shipenko and his partner, along with Novitskiy, would return home on MS-18, likely within a week. The two seats were meant for Vande Hei and Dubrov, which means the pair might have to stay on the ISS until the next return trip home, likely in the spring of 2022.”
Keith’s note: So … NASA no longer has an arrangement with Russia to buy Soyuz seats. As such they have to use Axiom Space (who has some sort of undisclosed deal with Roscosmos to own/control a Soyuz seat) that they can swap for a seat on a Boeing or SpaceX flight (another TBD deal) – all for the purpose of assuring a U.S. presence on the ISS. But wait: the return seat is not guaranteed and the American flying in the Axiom Space Soyuz seat may have to stay on the ISS for a year?
I thought the whole idea behind the commercial crew thing was that SpaceX and Boeing were going to be flying to/from ISS on a regular basis and do so in a fashion that assured U.S. access – in both directions? So why is it that an American can’t get a ride home when they are supposed to? This sounds like American astronauts are now flying on standby tickets. I’d ask NASA PAO – but they never answer these sort of questions.
Who negotiated this mess?
– Congress Inquires About NASA/Russia – Soyuz Deals, earlier post
– Is NASA Running A Soyuz Seat Swap Scheme?, earlier post
– NASA Wants To Buy Russian While The White House Says Buy American, earlier post
doesn’t SpaceX have another crewed mission coming up ? Launch with a couple empty seats ? Or swap 2 SpaceX for 2 NASA astronauts on ISS ?
It’s the usual chaos that surrounds the US manned space program. It’s been going on for decades. Prepare yourself for what is to come.
It probably has something to do with Boeing screwing up Starliner. NASA needs Soyuz as a backup to Dragon until Starliner can be certified. Of course who would negotiate a way up without a way down?!?
Maybe they can hitch a ride back with Dragon? ?
Well, it’s going to be almost 18 months and the second Starliner TEST will be flying!
To think that at one time we thought it would be a tight race between Boeing and SpaceX.
It’s more about continuity of operations for the US Orbital Segment in case any one of the four expedition members who rode up in a Dragon needs to be medically evacuated, necessitating the early return of all four. It has long been the stated plan of the Commercial Crew program to swap seats with the Russians on a one-for-one, no-funds basis, so that neither segment need be totally evacuated should such a situation arise, but the Russians have been slow to finalize the deal, saying that the Commercial Crew vehicles have not yet been sufficiently tested.
The Russian reluctance is almost certainly about money and politics, but there is some merit to their point. You certainly can’t call Starliner fully tested, and even Dragon has yet not demonstrated its ability to survive reentry and safely land under parachutes after six months on station. Sergey Korsakov, who was bumped off MS-18 to make room for Vande Hei, is expected to fly on a Commercial Crew mission next year.
I know the original concept for Dragon would have given room for 7 astronauts and I still see that quoted as the capacity, but that was later pared back to 4 for normal operations, so you have 4 from Boeing / SpaceX and 3 from Soyuz for a standard compliment of 7 on ISS.
Anyone know if there are some emergency rumble seats tucked into the walls of the interior cargo space below the 2+2 seating? (Like the old Model S’s 3rd row seats in the trunk?) Obviously you loose the Cargo space, but it would be a definite nice-to-have in an emergency evacuation scenario.
You misspelled StarLemon.
The x-cccp can’t afford its space program. The money paid in the past by the US for rides was the seed used to build Soyuz spacecraft and rockets. That funding path is gone. The trade and bater deal with Axiom Space helps the Russians build spacecraft. It would be cheaper to just buy rides directly. But we can’t do that anymore, we have commercial crew! The Russians must sell seat or they have to leave the program. If we want them to take part we need to fund a way to help them pay for it.
This situation gets weirder everytime you report on it. Is it just the Boeing delays have thrown a wrench in the whole us astronaut manifest? Why are the spacex four seats not good enough and can’t they just accelerate the upcoming crew dragon flights to keep us astronauts on the ISS instead of having to revert to buying soyuz seats?maybe bowing should be paying for these seats since they caused this gap with their delays.
Most of the time there will be one Soyuz and one American craft (Dragon or Starliner) docked at the ISS. A crewmember with a medical emergency which requires returning to Earth means that all passengers of the spacecraft have to return as well.
NASA publicly states that they don’t want such a medical emergency to force a situation where there would be no American astronaut onboard to maintain the U.S. segment.
Though it may not be publicly stated, I’m sure NASA also doesn’t want the situation where there is no Russian cosmonaut left onboard to main the Russian segment.
I think NASA is preparing for a budget cut and cancelation. They been down this road before.
Cancellation of what? The whole ISS? Budget cut maybe, but so far it looks like Biden is supportive.
My guess is that the whole thing is really tied up in international politics. The ISS is I think literally the last point of amicable relations between the US and Russia, and the wider geopolitical issues are making even that more difficult every day.
Former Senator Bill Nelson got the nodd for Director of NASA. He is biased against commercial space. Here might be the reason for more Soyuz rides.
This deal might have just been finalized, but it’s been in the works since last fall — that’s why Mark Vande Hei and Anne McClain have been training in Russia. The deal has nothing whatsoever to do with Nelson.
Is NASA still paying for the ride or does it trade rides, letting cosmonauts ride on the US vehicles?
A one-for-one seat trade program with the Russians is still the plan, but it hasn’t been finalized yet. Yet NASA isn’t paying cash for this seat either. Instead, Axios paid the Russians for it, and then traded it to NASA in return for a seat on a Commercial Crew rotation flight in 2023. The Russians are expected to start the seat-swap program next year, with Sergey Korsakov (who was booted from MS-18 to make room for Vande Hei) flying on a Dragon.
“Who negotiated this mess?”
Whoever they are, they should be given a medal!
This was already looking like a good deal for NASA, and the extension makes it better.
Why are you so down on it, Keith?
“I thought the whole idea behind the commercial crew thing …”
You did know about the long-standing plan to eventually swap seats with the Russians for the purpose of assured continuity of operations in case a crewmember requires medical evacuation, right? The Russians have been slow to finalize it, but this deal is even better.
One of the selling points for the four-seated Commercial Crew capsules was that, given the fixed overhead of Space Station maintenance and housekeeping, adding a fourth crew member allows them to double the science done on station. Kate Rubins’ seat on MS-17 has allowed five USOS crew members for Expedition 64. The MS-18 / Vande Hei seat deal means that this increased crew size continues for Expedition 65, and now with the mission extension, it continues for Expedition 66 as well. A full year-and-a-half where USOS has 5/7ths of the ISS crew!
This would be a good deal even if we were paying the Russians $80M for the seat. (That’s not much different from what the Commercial Crew seats cost.) But the restrictions against NASA doing so has led to something better. Axios is paying the Russians — though presumably less than what NASA used to. And NASA isn’t paying anything, but is instead swapping for a 2023 Axios ride on a Commercial Crew flight. Details of that will be interesting to learn, but I expect it to be for a short visit during crew handover midway through another long-duration mission, but this time utilizing Commercial Crew vehicles.
What’s not to like about this arrangement?